Mexico 2012

[jaichind]

My understanding is that in Mexico politics there is an relative obsession with the total number of votes.  With that in mind it seems that Nieto will break the all time record of number of votes set back in 1994 by Zedillo of the PRI who got 17.18 million votes.  Nieto is on track to hit almost 19 million.

[ThePrezMex]

The case of Baja California is very interesting.
In the Presidential Election the results so far (86% counted):

PRI 36.54%
PRD 31.29%
PAN 27.52%!
PANAL 2.84%

But look at the Senate vote so far:

PAN 31.95%
PRD 26.26%
PRI  25.90%
Green 3.95%
PANAL 3.92%

And for House:

PRI is ahead in 7 of 8 districts and PAN in 1
PRI 38.29%
PAN 29.65%
PRD 24.79%
PANAL 4.64%

People split their vote all over the place in Baja California.

[ag]

It's undeniable that AMLO performed well and he's a pretty good campaigner but looking at the 5% margin I wonder how Ebrard performance would have been.

Ebrard could have won. He might have done worse than AMLO in places like Guanajuato, where PANistas are religious (Ebrard is the most anti-clerical of major Mexican politicians - it's very obvious he doesn't much care about the Church) - but it's not like AMLO has gotten many votes from that set, anyway. Ebrard would have done far better then AMLO in other places, though. AMLO is running nearly 11 points below Mancera in DF (52.77% vs. 63.68% so far) - this is just one indication. I am pretty sure Ebrard would have done better than Mancera - Mancera is largely unknown, it's a proxi vote for Ebrard, anyway. Just compare my own booth (yesterday I reported my wife's, mine is even more panista):

President:
JVM (PAN) 185
AMLO (PRD/PT/MC) 86
EPN (PRI/PVEM) 84
Quadri (PANAL) 2
write-ins 1
invalid  7
Total 365 (turnout 77.99%)

Mayor
Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 165
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 111
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 74
Guerrra (PANAL) 2
invalid  10
Total 362

I think that's suggestive enough.

[jaichind]

With roughly 92% of the votes counted, after normalizing out the null votes

For Prez
PRI         38.83
PRD        32.62
PAN        26.08
PANAL      2.38

For Senate
PRI         38.91
PRD        29.08
PAN        27.80
PANAL      3.94  

For Congress
PRI         39.71
PRD        28.56
PAN        27.28
PANAL      4.31

[ag]

Well, it looks like only 2 out of 6 ballots I cast yesterday were for a winner

One was, obviously, Mancera - but that's obvious. The other was, surprizingly, for the city council. Of the 40 FPTP seats PRD is taking 38, it seems, and PAN is ahead in 2 (w/ one of those beeing too close to call). My district is the only semi-safe PAN district in the entire city at this point: district XX of the city council

PAN 53,456 votes
PRD/PT/MC 47,562 votes
PRI/PVEM 27,658 votes
PANAL 3,141 votes
invalid 5,272 votes (for city council races a lot of people, probably, simply cast blanks)

This is Mexico's archetypal middle class land: western Benito Juarez and northeastern Alvaro Obregon boroughs. No, it's not a giant gated community

Just to show the proxi Ebrard (i.e., Mancera) vote in the same district:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 76,242 votes
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 31,365 votes
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 26,203 votes
PANAL 1,027 votes
invalid 2,235 votes

[jaichind]

I have some questions on seat allocation for the senate

So is it true that for each state or federal district, the party with highest vote gets 2 senators and the second place party gets one ?

For the 32 national senators-at-large, is that allocated based on total vote or do they break it down within each circunscripción? My understanding is they do it for the country as a whole.  And is there something a 8% or 42% rule like they do in the Congress at large seat allocation? My understandings is there is no such rule. 

[jaichind]

It seems the alliance between PRI and Greens (PVEM) is incomplete.  It only held in 10 out of 32 states for the senate and 199 out of 300 seats in Congress.  Looking over the results it seems the lack of an alliance cost PRI/PVEM 6 first place finishes in the Senete and a couple of dozen FTFP seats in the Congress.

[ag]

I have some questions on seat allocation for the senate

So is it true that for each state or federal district, the party with highest vote gets 2 senators and the second place party gets one ?

For the 32 national senators-at-large, is that allocated based on total vote or do they break it down within each circunscripción? My understanding is they do it for the country as a whole.  And is there something a 8% or 42% rule like they do in the Congress at large seat allocation? My understandings is there is no such rule. 

Yes: 2 for winner, 1 for first loser, 32 at large PR. I believe there is a proportionality rule, but I'd have to check it out.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Any links for info on the congressional elections? I'm a bit more interested in that since the presidential election was actually pretty boring.

[ag]

Any links for info on the congressional elections? I'm a bit more interested in that since the presidential election was actually pretty boring.

Same PREP. Just look for senadores and diputados.

[jaichind]

Looking over the Prez vote results in different states, it seems Baja California votes shares of the 4 parities came the closest to mimicing the national vote shares.  This is very interesting since based on what I know Baja California should be a PAN stronghold but in this election it seems to be trending away from PAN.

[LastVoter]

Well, it looks like only 2 out of 6 ballots I cast yesterday were for a winner

One was, obviously, Mancera - but that's obvious. The other was, surprizingly, for the city council. Of the 40 FPTP seats PRD is taking 38, it seems, and PAN is ahead in 2 (w/ one of those beeing too close to call). My district is the only semi-safe PAN district in the entire city at this point: district XX of the city council

PAN 53,456 votes
PRD/PT/MC 47,562 votes
PRI/PVEM 27,658 votes
PANAL 3,141 votes
invalid 5,272 votes (for city council races a lot of people, probably, simply cast blanks)

This is Mexico's archetypal middle class land: western Benito Juarez and northeastern Alvaro Obregon boroughs. No, it's not a giant gated community

Just to show the proxi Ebrard (i.e., Mancera) vote in the same district:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 76,242 votes
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 31,365 votes
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 26,203 votes
PANAL 1,027 votes
invalid 2,235 votes

Is gated community an unfeasible concept in Mexico because many of the rich have cartel money?

[© tweed]

nice showing for AMLO.  2018?

[ag]

nice showing for AMLO.  2018?

Wonderful showing: 4 points below his losing bid 6 years ago. In another 6 years he is on track to get a whole of 27%. Back then he lost by 250 thousand votes. Now it is 3 million 250 thousand (and ticking). Had he not run, Ebrard could well have won - he, really, is responsible for getting PRI back in power.

Actually, I don't see many scenarios in which he gets another PRD nomination: they really didn't want him this time (he was only nominated, because he was certain to run on the PT line, anyway). No, if he behaves, he will be a "moral leader", taking part in fuzzy political geezers' reunions.

[ag]

Is gated community an unfeasible concept in Mexico because many of the rich have cartel money?
[/quote]

What? Of course, gated communities are feasible here. There are as many as you'd like: for the rich, for the middle class, and even for the not so middle-class. I would never live in one, though. I like normal cities.

As for drugs - the mobsters are few and far between, and the ones that are wealthy don't really show their colors where they live. In Sinaloa, they say, things have always been different, but in Mexico City the first time you'd know your neighbor is a mobster is after he is arrested or killed - most likely, you'd never see one in your life.

[ag]

The final PREP result (w/ 98.95% reporting)

EPN (PRI/PVEM) 18,727,398 votes 38.15%
AMLO (PRD/PT/MC) 15,535,117 votes 31.64%
JVM (PAN) 12,473,106 votes, 25.40%
Quadri (PANAL) 1,129,108 votes, 2.30%

write-ins 31,660 votes
invalid 1,191,057 votes
total turnout  49,087,446 votes (63.14%)

official count wednesday

[Velasco]

Is this PREP result the final? I was waiting until the 100% was reported.

Puebla and Veracruz are the states with closest result. In Puebla AMLO is 0.12% ahead of EPN; in Veracruz EPN (33.65%) is only 0.02% ahead of JVM (33.63%), AMLO is 3rd with 28.9%.

Chiapas has elected the first "green" governor in History, Manuel Velasco (PVEM). Of course the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico is far away of being an actual environmentalist party. He is endorsed by PRI and PANAL. The result was a landslide: PRI-PVEM-PANAL aggregate is 63.4%; PRD-PT-MC won 17.6% of the vote and PAN 9.1%.

In Jalisco the PREP result (91.1% reporting) is PRI-PVEM 38.8%; MC 34.1%; PAN 19.9%; PRD 3.4%. Major defeat for PAN.

Morelos is the other PANista lost state. It's on PRD side now. PRD-PT-MC 43.3%; PRI-PVEM-PANAL 34.7%; PAN 15.1%.

PRI loses Tabasco to PRD, PAN holds Guanajuato, Yucatán is still a solid PRIista state and in Mexico City (Distrito Federal) Mancera won a landslide. So the gubernatorial map now is:

[MaxQue]

French news are reporting than AMLO decided to repeat its 2006 show and to say than the election is fraudulent and marred by irregularities.

[Velasco]

I can't understand AMLO's strategy. It's pretty obvious that PRI guys are not pure and crystal water, you have all that media scandals, presumed payments and so on, but putting all the electoral process under challenge when 690 international observers have reported nothing...

Here you are, Ken and Barbie:

 

[Dereich]

So, who will EPN prefer to work with in a divided legislature to get his agenda passed?

[RogueBeaver]

So, who will EPN prefer to work with in a divided legislature to get his agenda passed?

PAN? After all, he wants to allow private shareholding in PEMEX, partial deregulation of the labour market, tax reform, etc. Won't believe any of that till it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else noticed the rather striking similarity in parts of Mexico between support for EPN and areas controlled by those charmers in the Sinaloa Cartel?

I can't understand AMLO's strategy. It's pretty obvious that PRI guys are not pure and crystal water, you have all that media scandals, presumed payments and so on, but putting all the electoral process under challenge when 690 international observers have reported nothing...

Force of habit.

[Velasco]

Yes, of course, but if you have paid atention to The Guardian's scoop about Peña Nieto, Televisa and that presumptive and orchestrated campaign against him in 2006 maybe you'll understand his paranoia. I regard him as old-fashioned, stubborn and lacking of self-criticism but not as an evil agent. Anyway I'll never understand him and if I were Mexican I'd be more comfortable with Ebrard or another guy.

[Velasco]

Map for the winner candidates, preliminary results. Caution: Puebla and Veracruz states are too close to say and the winner candidate may change with the official results. Vote percentages, not margins



EPN have won 21 states. His best performances are at Zacatecas (above 50%), Sinaloa, Chiapas or Durango. AMLO won 8 (included DF) and polled better at his home state of Tabasco (59%) and in Mexico City (52%; 6 points below of 2006), he also did very well in Guerrero (Acapulco!). JVM gained three states, the PANista stronghold of Guanajuato and Nuevo León and Tamaulipas in the north.  

[CatoMinor]

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.