Long Island statehood

[Paul Kemp]

Two East End legislators are once again tossing around the idea of Long Island statehood, two years after a Daily Show sketch poked fun at the idea.

Assemb. Fred Thiele, I-Sag Harbor, and state Sen. Ken LaValle, R-Port Jefferson, are floating the idea after the business group Long Island Association announced plans to study the consolidation of Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

"County government was not meant to serve 2.8 million people. ... Nassau and Suffolk are already the two largest counties in the state," Thiele said.

Thiele added that the population of Long Island is larger than 19 states in the country.

http://smithtown.patch.com/articles/pols-resurrect-long-island-statehood-chatter

This seems to come up every three years or so. Still, it's an absolutely absurd idea.

[© Tweed the Younger]

tossup / lean Romney

[jimrtex]

Two East End legislators are once again tossing around the idea of Long Island statehood, two years after a Daily Show sketch poked fun at the idea.

Assemb. Fred Thiele, I-Sag Harbor, and state Sen. Ken LaValle, R-Port Jefferson, are floating the idea after the business group Long Island Association announced plans to study the consolidation of Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

"County government was not meant to serve 2.8 million people. ... Nassau and Suffolk are already the two largest counties in the state," Thiele said.

Thiele added that the population of Long Island is larger than 19 states in the country.

http://smithtown.patch.com/articles/pols-resurrect-long-island-statehood-chatter

This seems to come up every three years or so. Still, it's an absolutely absurd idea.

Why not the whole island?

[Paul Kemp]

Two East End legislators are once again tossing around the idea of Long Island statehood, two years after a Daily Show sketch poked fun at the idea.

Assemb. Fred Thiele, I-Sag Harbor, and state Sen. Ken LaValle, R-Port Jefferson, are floating the idea after the business group Long Island Association announced plans to study the consolidation of Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

"County government was not meant to serve 2.8 million people. ... Nassau and Suffolk are already the two largest counties in the state," Thiele said.

Thiele added that the population of Long Island is larger than 19 states in the country.

http://smithtown.patch.com/articles/pols-resurrect-long-island-statehood-chatter

This seems to come up every three years or so. Still, it's an absolutely absurd idea.

Why not the whole island?

Some forget that Brooklyn and Queens are also on the island, even state legislators apparently.

[ag]

The "reasonable" division of NY would be into Upstate and Downstate: LI, NYC and Westchester belong together.

[muon2]

The "reasonable" division of NY would be into Upstate and Downstate: LI, NYC and Westchester belong together.

I'd add Rockland as well. It's mostly NYC suburbs, and is part of downstate. That would make downstate equal to about 63% of the state's population.

[Ethelberth]

I suport Superior statehood, that I have read in Wikipedia. It Means UP Michigan and parts of Wisconsin and propably Duluth. Obviously,It would be very Finnish state.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

The most logical place to divide the state is at the northern boundary of the Poughkeepsie-based MSA. (The border would zigzag from where the NY, NJ, and PA boundaries meet to where the NY, CT, and MA boundaries.)

Not that I'd want to live in a state that could be described as "Indiana if it bordered New England at one end and NYC at the other instead of Chicago and the South."

[Verily]

The most logical place to divide the state is at the northern boundary of the Poughkeepsie-based MSA. (The border would zigzag from where the NY, NJ, and PA boundaries meet to where the NY, CT, and MA boundaries.)

Not that I'd want to live in a state that could be described as "Indiana if it bordered New England at one end and NYC at the other instead of Chicago and the South."

Politically, Upstate would be more like Minnesota/Wisconsin than like Indiana (obviously not like either demographically, but that's not easy to model).

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Politically, Upstate would be more like Minnesota/Wisconsin than like Indiana (obviously not like either demographically, but that's not easy to model).

Without doing any calculations, I would also place its PVI closer to Wisconsin than Indiana. But my intuition has always been that  culturally and economically, Upstate has more in common with the Rust Belt than the Upper Midwest.

To be completely fair, western New York and eastern New York are very different from each other, politically, economically, and culturally.

[Invisible Obama]

What is never really thought about with these proposals is the economic and tax sustainability. Even a minor split, such as with a county, the costs are high. When La Paz County, Arizona split from Yuma County, the state had to support the county for awhile. The federal government would end up supporting a split of any state.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

What is never really thought about with these proposals is the economic and tax sustainability. Even a minor split, such as with a county, the costs are high. When La Paz County, Arizona split from Yuma County, the state had to support the county for awhile. The federal government would end up supporting a split of any state.

Absolutely agree! It's possible that statehood for Upstate New York would be advantageous in the long-term, but it would also entail significant sacrifice for a period of at least several decades. Still, it's fun to imagine political boundaries that are more reflective of current cultural, political, and economic geographies.

[muon2]

The most logical place to divide the state is at the northern boundary of the Poughkeepsie-based MSA. (The border would zigzag from where the NY, NJ, and PA boundaries meet to where the NY, CT, and MA boundaries.)

Not that I'd want to live in a state that could be described as "Indiana if it bordered New England at one end and NYC at the other instead of Chicago and the South."

I've always found that the Poughkeepsie area was more like upstate.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

I've always found that the Poughkeepsie area was more like upstate.

The Poughkeepsie MSA includes Orange and Putnam counties, which I would characterize as Downstate. I'm less sure about Dutchess (the county in which Poughkeepsie is located), but I'm inclined to include it because the Metro North line ends in Poughkeepsie, and I know people from the area who visit NYC regularly for shopping, entertainment, and work.

(One qualifier: I grew up less than 30 miles from the Canadian border, where people occasionally referred to Syracuse as "Downstate." My background is an obvious source of bias.)

[Senator Snowstalker]

Cutting out NYC, LI, Westchester, and Rockland, how would NY have voted in 2008?

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

I did some quick calculations, and Obama's margin in Upstate New York (no LI, NYC, Westchester, or Rockland) was about +8. Excluding Dutchess, Orange, and Putnam counties doesn't make a large difference. (For comparison, Obama's actual margin in NY was +27.)

So it's close to neither Wisconsin (+14) nor Indiana (+1). It's closest to VA (+6) or CO (+9)

I wasn't precise enough to make this determination, but Obama's margin in Upstate New York might be closer to his national average (+7.26, according to Wikipedia) than his margin in any actual state.

[jimrtex]

The "reasonable" division of NY would be into Upstate and Downstate: LI, NYC and Westchester belong together.

I'd add Rockland as well. It's mostly NYC suburbs, and is part of downstate. That would make downstate equal to about 63% of the state's population.

If you split into insular New York, and mainland New York, divided by the Harlem and East rivers, it would be a 50-50 split.

[Verily]

I did some quick calculations, and Obama's margin in Upstate New York (no LI, NYC, Westchester, or Rockland) was about +8. Excluding Dutchess, Orange, and Putnam counties doesn't make a large difference. (For comparison, Obama's actual margin in NY was +27.)

So it's close to neither Wisconsin (+14) nor Indiana (+1). It's closest to VA (+6) or CO (+9)

I wasn't precise enough to make this determination, but Obama's margin in Upstate New York might be closer to his national average (+7.26, according to Wikipedia) than his margin in any actual state.

I'm pretty sure I calculated this once and got Upstate as being between 55% and 56% Obama (basically the same definition of Upstate). Are you sure your numbers are right?

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

I did some quick calculations, and Obama's margin in Upstate New York (no LI, NYC, Westchester, or Rockland) was about +8. Excluding Dutchess, Orange, and Putnam counties doesn't make a large difference. (For comparison, Obama's actual margin in NY was +27.)

So it's close to neither Wisconsin (+14) nor Indiana (+1). It's closest to VA (+6) or CO (+9)

I wasn't precise enough to make this determination, but Obama's margin in Upstate New York might be closer to his national average (+7.26, according to Wikipedia) than his margin in any actual state.

I'm pretty sure I calculated this once and got Upstate as being between 55% and 56% Obama (basically the same definition of Upstate). Are you sure your numbers are right?

I got them from the NYT Electoral Explorer, so no. I'll try again with numbers from the Atlas to see if I match your result.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

OK, recalculated with more precision.

NEW YORK STATE - 62.9/36 (+26.9)

UPSTATE 1 - 53.7/44.7 (+9.0)
Excludes Long Island + NYC + Westchester & Rockland counties

UPSTATE 2 - 54/44.4 (+9.6)
Also excludes Dutchess, Putnam, and Orange counties

States with comparable margins are Colorado (+8.95), Iowa (+9.53), and New Hampshire (+9.61)

I don't know how to format tables, so I'll just post my numbers and hope that they're readable as a reference:

NY                               OBAMA   MCCAIN   OTHER   TOTAL   %OBAMA   %MCCAIN   %OTHER      OBAMA MARGIN Suffolk   346549   307021   6209   659779   52.5%   46.5%   0.9%      6.0% Nassau   342185   288776   4657   635618   53.8%   45.4%   0.7%      8.4% Kings   603525   151872   4451   759848   79.4%   20.0%   0.6%      59.4% Queens   480692   155221   4224   640137   75.1%   24.2%   0.7%      50.8% Richmond   79311   86062   1205   166578   47.6%   51.7%   0.7%      -4.1% New York   572370   89949   5566   667885   85.7%   13.5%   0.8%      72.2% Bronx   338261   41683   1378   381322   88.7%   10.9%   0.4%      77.8% Westchester   261810   147824   3410   413044   63.4%   35.8%   0.8%      27.6% Rockland   69543   61752   898   132193   52.6%   46.7%   0.7%      5.9% TOTAL1   3094246   1330160   31998   4456404   69.4%   29.8%   0.7%      39.6% UPSTATE1   1710699   1422611   51234   3184544   53.7%   44.7%   1.6%      9.0%                             Putnam   21613   25145   486   47244   45.7%   53.2%   1.0%      -7.5% Orange   78326   72042   1614   151982   51.5%   47.4%   1.1%      4.1% Dutchess   71060   59628   1614   132302   53.7%   45.1%   1.2%      8.6% TOTAL2   3265245   1486975   35712   4787932   68.2%   31.1%   0.7%      37.1% UPSTATE2   1539700   1265796   47520   2853016   54.0%   44.4%   1.7%      9.6%                                                         STATEWIDE   4804945   2752771   83232   7640948   62.9%   36.0%   1.1%      26.9%

[cinyc]

The "reasonable" division of NY would be into Upstate and Downstate: LI, NYC and Westchester belong together.

I'd add Rockland as well. It's mostly NYC suburbs, and is part of downstate. That would make downstate equal to about 63% of the state's population.

A split will never happen for various reasons, but if it did, these days, the most logical split would be along TV market lines.   So in addition to Rockland and Westchester, the Downstate part should include Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan counties.  That gives the Downstate part some growing exurbs and additional room for growth.  It also puts a number of the New York City reservoirs in the Downstate part instead of almost all the Catskill/Delaware reservoirs in a different state.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

It also puts a number of the New York City reservoirs in the Downstate part instead of almost all the Catskill/Delaware reservoirs in a different state.

Well, we'd need to make up for all the lost tax revenue somehow...

[Nichlemn]

If Upstate separated, it's not so clear that it would vote the same at the Presidential level. I think quite a few people vote Republican at the local level to counter NYC, and some of this spills over to the Presidential level.

As for whether this is a good idea, I'm not sure, but I'm almost certain it's a good idea for at least some counties and/or states. Why? Because even if we grant that states and counties were sensibly drawn when they came into existence, it has in some cases been hundreds of years since that occurred. It would be an astonishing coincidence if the optimal communities of interest/economies of scale persisted in every single state and country to the present day.

[Vasall des Midas]

Opposed. They can have associated free state status, though.

[Vosem]

I think the area on this map should be a state (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:New_York_Metropolitan_Area_Counties_Illustration.PNG). What's New York, what's New Jersey, and what's Connecticut should be obvious - Pike County is the only thing to be taken from Pennsylvania.

If we're on the topic of adjusting state boundaries, Maryland should probably annex D.C. Just for neatness, Missouri or Tennessee (doesn't really matter which) should probably have the Kentucky Bend. Can't think of much else - Superior is not a good idea.