Conservative spoiler candidates in '12

[Jacobtm]

A little-discussed part of the 2008 election was Bob Barr. He played a major role in Obama's win in both North Carolina and Indiana:

North Carolina:
Obama: 49.70
McCain: 49.38
Barr: .60

McCain + Barr = 49.98

Indiana:
Obama: 49.85
McCain: 48.82
Barr: 1.06

McCain + Barr = 49.88

In both states McCain + Barr is greater than Obama's vote totals. He essentially only won because disaffected conservatives voted Barr instead of McCain.

If Romney is the nominee, we will again have a case where the conservative base is dissatisfied with the Republican standard bearer, and will likely see another conservative 3rd party candidate poll at least .5% in a number of states.

This could honestly be what lets Obama win in '12. If Obama has 49.5% support in a state, and anti-Obama people are 50.5%, but more than 1% of those people vote for someone besides Romney, Obama wins.

[You kip if you want to...]

Bold prediction, Nevada and Colorado will be Obama states, but below 50%

[Jacobtm]

Bold prediction, Nevada and Colorado will be Obama states, but below 50%

I wouldn't be surprised to see the same in Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.

Hell, NH luvz libertarians.