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Author Topic: NH PrimR: Insider Advantage: Romney ahead, Cain gaining fast  (Read 790 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 17, 2011, 12:49:17 pm »
New Poll: New Hampshire President by Insider Advantage on 2011-10-17

Summary:
Romney:
39%
Cain:
24%
Paul:
11%
Other:
19%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2011, 12:51:54 pm »
Best poll result for the Cainster so far.
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© Tweed the Younger
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2011, 12:52:17 pm »
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how has Insider Advantage performed in the past few cycles?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2011, 12:55:50 pm »
Quote from: © Nihilists for Romney, Vol. II on October 17, 2011, 12:52:17 pm
how has Insider Advantage performed in the past few cycles?

A quick check for 2010 reveals that they were bad.

They polled the Nikki Haley race and found her winning by 14, she won by 4.

They also overestimated the Republican Senate candidate in GA by about 15 points.

The GA governor race was OK.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2011, 12:58:06 pm »
In the 2008 General Election, they were pretty good (with the exception of their last OH and WV polls and NV of course).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2011, 12:58:59 pm »
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How were they in the early 2008 primaries though?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2011, 01:09:32 pm »
Quote from: Van Der  Blub on October 17, 2011, 12:58:59 pm
How were they in the early 2008 primaries though?

Just checked it:

On the Democratic side they were good (picked the correct winners in every contest, but the margins were not so good, with many undecideds).

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=1&year=2008&elect=1

On the Republican side they were also really good, got only TN wrong but within the MoE.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=1&year=2008&elect=2
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2011, 03:43:42 pm »
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yesssssss
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2011, 04:50:52 pm »
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Hmm.. maybe he is for real...
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2011, 05:00:53 pm »
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Quote from: NVGonzalez on October 17, 2011, 04:50:52 pm
Hmm.. maybe he is for real...

yeah, a giant hush fell upon the 2012 election board this morning as posters logged on only to find that Cain not only survived the den of lions, but that he had also named and branded them with his infamous 999 moniker
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2011, 05:35:05 pm »
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Quote from: jmfcst on October 17, 2011, 05:00:53 pm
Quote from: NVGonzalez on October 17, 2011, 04:50:52 pm
Hmm.. maybe he is for real...

yeah, a giant hush fell upon the 2012 election board this morning as posters logged on only to find that Cain not only survived the den of lions, but that he had also named and branded them with his infamous 999 moniker

I for one am thrilled by Mr. Cain's success.
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2011, 06:20:25 pm »
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Quote from: jmfcst on October 17, 2011, 05:00:53 pm
Quote from: NVGonzalez on October 17, 2011, 04:50:52 pm
Hmm.. maybe he is for real...

yeah, a giant hush fell upon the 2012 election board this morning as posters logged on only to find that Cain not only survived the den of lions, but that he had also named and branded them with his infamous 999 moniker

These polls were done before the lions were unleashed.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2011, 02:51:10 am by Eraserhead »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2011, 07:22:32 pm »
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Meeker
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2011, 04:42:32 pm »
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Couldn't this actually in some sort of backwards way help Romney? If New Hampshire becomes competitive and then Romney manages to beat Cain by a few points a week after a Cain victory in Iowa, wouldn't that be more helpful to Romney then winning by 30% and all the news media saying how predictable such a victory was?
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© Tweed the Younger
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2011, 05:29:57 pm »
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Quote from: Meeker on October 18, 2011, 04:42:32 pm
Couldn't this actually in some sort of backwards way help Romney? If New Hampshire becomes competitive and then Romney manages to beat Cain by a few points a week after a Cain victory in Iowa, wouldn't that be more helpful to Romney then winning by 30% and all the news media saying how predictable such a victory was?

margin matters.  everyone expected Obama to win the SC primary last cycle, but winning it in a blowout served as a kick-start.
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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VP Duke
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2011, 09:19:58 pm »
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If Romney only wins NH by a few points, the media will spin it as a colossal failure. He has to win it big for it to be considered a victory. If Cain wins Iowa and SC by large margins while Romney wins NH, NV and MI by small ones, Cain will have a huge advantage. Romney's states are all already baked into his expectations.
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I call that getting swindled and pimped
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2011, 07:42:09 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on October 17, 2011, 01:09:32 pm
Quote from: Van Der  Blub on October 17, 2011, 12:58:59 pm
How were they in the early 2008 primaries though?

Just checked it:

On the Democratic side they were good (picked the correct winners in every contest, but the margins were not so good, with many undecideds).

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=1&year=2008&elect=1

On the Republican side they were also really good, got only TN wrong but within the MoE.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=1&year=2008&elect=2

If they had polled NH after Obama won IA, they would have probably been wrong like everyone else.
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