What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

Obviously, the GOP is overwhelmingly white, yet there's still a small segment of black voters who identify as Republicans, and who will vote in the primaries.  What % of them will vote for Cain?

(If you like, you can also predict how Asian Republicans, Latino Republicans, Jewish Republicans, and atheist Republicans will vote.)

[Tender Branson]

Republican exit poll for the 2008 South Carolina primary:



ERROR ! ERROR ! ERROR !

(We'll never know the answer to your question, because the sample size is toooooo small ...)

But if you want, you can take a look at the crosstabs of the InsiderAdvantage polls from SC and FL, which breakd down even this very small sample of Black Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, Gingrich is winning Black Republicans in the IA poll with 62%. There are 9 of them in the poll.

Cain and Gingrich are tied with NH Black Republicans. There are only 4 of them.

Cain has an absolute majority with SC Black Republicans. There are 14.

Cain is slightly ahead of Gingrich with FL Black Republicans, 35%-31%. There are 25 in the poll.

[Mr. Morden]

What if you add all black Republicans from all four states together and calculate the overall %ages?  Cain narrowly ahead of Gingrich?

And does Romney's lack of love from the black GOPers have something to do with Mormonism's uh....."colorful" history with race?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic.

[oakvale]

I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%.

[Simfan34]

The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic.

Je suis un oxymoron.

I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%.

Ich bin Herman Cain!?

[TXMichael]

What percentage of the electorate in the GOP primary/caucus do black Republicans make up?  South Carolina exit poll posted above says 2%.  I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result

Of course it doesn't "matter".  I just think it's an interesting question.

[Gustaf]

Presumably a black Republican does not necessarily bloc vote for black people...

[Mr. Morden]

I just looked at Inisder Advantage's (not a very good pollster, but all we have in this case) IA/NH/SC/FL polls, and added up all the responses from likely GOP primary voters who are black from all four states and combined them, with my own re-weighting.  From all four states combined, their polls only have 52 responses from black GOP primary voters (nearly half of them in Florida).  What I came up with was this:

Cain 36%
Gingrich 29%
Romney 15%
Paul 11%
Bachmann 4%
everyone else 0%
undecided 5%

MOE is enormous, because there are only 52 respondents here.