Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 19, 2014, 08:57:05 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries?  (Read 810 times)
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19367
United States


View Profile
« on: October 18, 2011, 05:47:03 am »

Obviously, the GOP is overwhelmingly white, yet there's still a small segment of black voters who identify as Republicans, and who will vote in the primaries.  What % of them will vote for Cain?

(If you like, you can also predict how Asian Republicans, Latino Republicans, Jewish Republicans, and atheist Republicans will vote.)
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34113
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2011, 06:28:25 am »
Ignore

Republican exit poll for the 2008 South Carolina primary:



ERROR ! ERROR ! ERROR !

(We'll never know the answer to your question, because the sample size is toooooo small ...)

But if you want, you can take a look at the crosstabs of the InsiderAdvantage polls from SC and FL, which breakd down even this very small sample of Black Republicans.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34113
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2011, 06:38:04 am »
Ignore

Btw, Gingrich is winning Black Republicans in the IA poll with 62%. There are 9 of them in the poll.

Cain and Gingrich are tied with NH Black Republicans. There are only 4 of them.

Cain has an absolute majority with SC Black Republicans. There are 14.

Cain is slightly ahead of Gingrich with FL Black Republicans, 35%-31%. There are 25 in the poll.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19367
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2011, 09:11:57 am »

What if you add all black Republicans from all four states together and calculate the overall %ages?  Cain narrowly ahead of Gingrich?

And does Romney's lack of love from the black GOPers have something to do with Mormonism's uh....."colorful" history with race?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38693
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2011, 10:15:53 am »
Ignore

The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic.
Logged



As expected the wop won.

Eraserhead's Original Update: Open For Business 24/7
oakvale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9051
Ireland, Republic of
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2011, 10:48:04 am »
Ignore

I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%.
Logged

Governor Varavour
Simfan34
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10511
Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: 5.91

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2011, 10:55:51 am »
Ignore

The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic.

Je suis un oxymoron.

I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%.

Ich bin Herman Cain!?
Logged

TXMichael
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 797
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2011, 02:04:01 pm »
Ignore

What percentage of the electorate in the GOP primary/caucus do black Republicans make up?  South Carolina exit poll posted above says 2%.  I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result
« Last Edit: October 18, 2011, 02:20:24 pm by TXMichael »Logged

Proposed 2012 GOP election slogans

1.  Defeat the economy!  Defeat Obama!
2.  More government control over Women's bodies!
3.  Vote conservative, vote for failure!
4.  Vote weakness, vote Republican!
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19367
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2011, 03:19:47 pm »

I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result

Of course it doesn't "matter".  I just think it's an interesting question.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26853


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2011, 04:05:50 pm »
Ignore

Presumably a black Republican does not necessarily bloc vote for black people... Tongue
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19367
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2011, 05:07:52 am »

I just looked at Inisder Advantage's (not a very good pollster, but all we have in this case) IA/NH/SC/FL polls, and added up all the responses from likely GOP primary voters who are black from all four states and combined them, with my own re-weighting.  From all four states combined, their polls only have 52 responses from black GOP primary voters (nearly half of them in Florida).  What I came up with was this:

Cain 36%
Gingrich 29%
Romney 15%
Paul 11%
Bachmann 4%
everyone else 0%
undecided 5%

MOE is enormous, because there are only 52 respondents here.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines