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Author Topic: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread  (Read 684 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« on: November 04, 2012, 02:01:59 am »
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2012 President:

AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney

HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama

MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama

NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney

SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney



Later:

Senate, Governors & House.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 02:43:46 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 40117
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 02:11:55 am »
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NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:

50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
  0.8% Johnson
  0.6% Stein
  0.3% Goode
  0.2% Anderson
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 02:09:39 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 02:22:17 am »
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State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he was viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.



Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 02:23:37 am »
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State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.

Of course all of this will be revised up until Monday evening. I'll probably "up" WI a bit for Obama if the final polls are out.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 02:27:28 am »
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Only a little unsure about CO. Otherwise, this looks pretty good. Good luck, Tender!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:02 am »
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I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley
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Moderation is a good path to follow, as long as you don't overdo it.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:52 am »
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I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley

Ahh, thx.

Will correct that ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 02:29:52 am »
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Updated Presidential #s ...

Senate:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577

I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.

But let's stay optimistic ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 40117
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 02:34:26 am »
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Governors:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557

Not sure about MT, this could go either way.

NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.

Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 02:36:06 am »
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House:

I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.

But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 02:39:03 am »
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SSM referendums and CA death penalty and CO grass:

WA: 53-47 pro SSM

MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment

MD: 52-48 pro SSM

ME: 53-47 pro SSM

CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty

CO: 51-49 against marihuana
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 02:44:21 am »
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If you see any flaws in my numbers/maps that is not matching up, please tell me ... Wink
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 04:08:52 am »
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Heres the swing map for your prediction.



Also the popular vote:

50.4% Obama 68,695,200
47.3% Romney 64,469,900
  0.8% Johnson 1,090,400
  0.6% Stein 817,800
  0.3% Goode 408,900
  0.2% Anderson 272,600
  0.4% Others 545,200

Turnout: 136.3 million

Just for fun Tongue

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