Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 12:53:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread  (Read 1062 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2012, 02:01:59 AM »
« edited: November 05, 2012, 02:43:46 AM by Tender Branson »

2012 President:

AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney

HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama

MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama

NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney

SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney



Later:

Senate, Governors & House.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 02:11:55 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 02:09:39 AM by Tender Branson »

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:

50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
  0.8% Johnson
  0.6% Stein
  0.3% Goode
  0.2% Anderson
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,085
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 02:22:17 AM »

State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 02:23:37 AM »

State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.

Of course all of this will be revised up until Monday evening. I'll probably "up" WI a bit for Obama if the final polls are out.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 02:27:28 AM »

Only a little unsure about CO. Otherwise, this looks pretty good. Good luck, Tender!
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,202


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:02 AM »

I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:52 AM »

I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley

Ahh, thx.

Will correct that ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 02:29:52 AM »

Updated Presidential #s ...

Senate:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577

I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.

But let's stay optimistic ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 02:34:26 AM »

Governors:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557

Not sure about MT, this could go either way.

NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.

Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 02:36:06 AM »

House:

I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.

But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 02:39:03 AM »

SSM referendums and CA death penalty and CO grass:

WA: 53-47 pro SSM

MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment

MD: 52-48 pro SSM

ME: 53-47 pro SSM

CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty

CO: 51-49 against marihuana
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 02:44:21 AM »

If you see any flaws in my numbers/maps that is not matching up, please tell me ... Wink
Logged
LiberalJunkie
LiberalJunkie99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 670
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 04:08:52 AM »

Heres the swing map for your prediction.



Also the popular vote:

50.4% Obama 68,695,200
47.3% Romney 64,469,900
  0.8% Johnson 1,090,400
  0.6% Stein 817,800
  0.3% Goode 408,900
  0.2% Anderson 272,600
  0.4% Others 545,200

Turnout: 136.3 million

Just for fun Tongue

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.222 seconds with 11 queries.