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Author Topic: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread  (Read 361 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« on: November 04, 2012, 02:01:59 am »
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2012 President:

AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney

HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama

MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama

NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney

SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney



Later:

Senate, Governors & House.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 02:43:46 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 02:11:55 am »
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NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:

50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
  0.8% Johnson
  0.6% Stein
  0.3% Goode
  0.2% Anderson
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 02:09:39 am by Tender Branson »Logged
GM Griffin
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E: -7.35, S: -6.78

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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 02:22:17 am »
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State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 02:23:37 am »
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Quote from: ΗΔΣ Ομιλητής Διπλή Γκριφιν on November 04, 2012, 02:22:17 am
State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.

Of course all of this will be revised up until Monday evening. I'll probably "up" WI a bit for Obama if the final polls are out.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 02:27:28 am »
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Only a little unsure about CO. Otherwise, this looks pretty good. Good luck, Tender!
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“The meaning of life is not to be discovered only after death in some hidden, mysterious realm; on the contrary, it can be found by eating the succulent fruit of the Tree of Life and by living in the here and now as fully and creatively as we can”

~~~~Dr. Paul Kurtz (1925-2012)
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:02 am »
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I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:52 am »
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Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2012, 06:34:02 am
I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. Smiley

Ahh, thx.

Will correct that ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 02:29:52 am »
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Updated Presidential #s ...

Senate:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577

I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.

But let's stay optimistic ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 02:34:26 am »
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Governors:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557

Not sure about MT, this could go either way.

NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.

Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 02:36:06 am »
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House:

I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.

But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 02:39:03 am »
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SSM referendums and CA death penalty and CO grass:

WA: 53-47 pro SSM

MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment

MD: 52-48 pro SSM

ME: 53-47 pro SSM

CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty

CO: 51-49 against marihuana
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 02:44:21 am »
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If you see any flaws in my numbers/maps that is not matching up, please tell me ... Wink
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Pacific Councillor LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 04:08:52 am »
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Heres the swing map for your prediction.



Also the popular vote:

50.4% Obama 68,695,200
47.3% Romney 64,469,900
  0.8% Johnson 1,090,400
  0.6% Stein 817,800
  0.3% Goode 408,900
  0.2% Anderson 272,600
  0.4% Others 545,200

Turnout: 136.3 million

Just for fun Tongue
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