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Author Topic: 2016: Rubio/Huntsman vs. Cuomo/Kaine  (Read 3261 times)
NHI
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« on: October 19, 2011, 10:29:37 am »
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Prologue:

Despite an unemployment rate of 8.8%, and an approval rating of 42%, Pres. Obama managed to defeat Governor Rick Perry for the presidency in 2012, by what many pundits saw as a larger than expected victory. Though Obama led Perry ins every poll, it was usually by no more than two or three points. By election day Obama managed to prove the impossible by winning reelection with unemployment above 7.2%.
The Republicans made in roads in the senate, but did not regain control. The Democrats improved their numbers in the House, but the Republicans remained in control, prompting divided government for two more years. Even with his victory, many pundits already saw Pres. Obama as a lame duck, due to the divided government and staggering unemployment figures.


Obama: 374: 53.4%
Perry: 165: 45.8%

The Midterms in 2014 saw the Republicans sweep control of the Senate, effectively crippling the Obama Presidency forever, and by the spring of 2015 as the candidates for president were emerging unemployment dropped to 7.7%, something many called the new norm. By 2016 Obama's approval rating stood at 37%, and Republicans were seething at the opportunity to finally win back the White House. The front runners for GOP nomination included Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Jon Huntsman. Surprisingly Christie stayed out of the race and endorsed Rubio for president who ultimately won the nomination and tapped Huntsman to be his running mate.
For the Democrats Andrew Cuomo was seen as the heir apparent. Despite some efforts by Deval Patrick and Jeanne Shaheen to derail him, Cuomo won the nomination early and tapped Senator Tim Kaine to be his running mate.
With the economy still being the top issue among voters both Cuomo and Rubio ran essentially the same campaign when it came to matters of fiscal policy. Ultimately it came down to who voters felt liked of the two candidates and who would be the better president.


"It is past time to get this country moving again. This century must be an American century and if you allow me the honor to serve as your president I will see that America remains as she has always been, the hope of the earth and a shining city on a hill.

I'll be the first to say things are tough, thing could be better. But we cannot look to the past in order to solve the problems of today. We must look forward, for that is the history of progressive in America."

Cuomo vs. Rubio
Cuomo: 48%
Rubio: 48%

The two headed into election day tied, with the election swinging either way. Many conservative pundits could not understand why the polling was so close, given Obama's unpopularity and the sour economy. "If Rubio wins this it will be a miracle." The once conservative darling and rising star was now viewed by many as a mistake and one that would lead to the third election won by a Democrat.


Coming up: CNN ELECTION NIGHT: RUBIO VS. CUOMO

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2011, 10:42:29 am »
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so do the democrats take Rubio's seat? I could see someone like Deutch winning the seat.
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2011, 12:01:30 pm »
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so do the democrats take Rubio's seat? I could see someone like Deutch winning the seat.

Crist would be good too.
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NHI
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2011, 03:17:07 pm »
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I'm John King and welcome to CNN election night coverage of campaign 2016. Tonight Governor Mario Cuomo and Senator Marco Rubio go head to head in has been the closest campaign in recent history, with both candidates in a statistical dead heat even at this hour. For now let us turn to our panel, as always the best election coverage on TV.

To my left here are, Republican Strategist Mary Matalin, Democratic Strategist Donna Brazile, Senior Political analyst David Gergen and CNN Chief Political Correspondent Gloria Borger. So panel as we await the votes from the first set of states, opening thoughts?

Gergen: I think without question John, this is by far one of the interesting election in my memory. You have two candidates with almost identical positions when it comes to the economy. Both are promoting, fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets, not spending more than what you take in. Now Cuomo has had governing experience, Rubio has not, so it will be interesting to see where he finds himself at the end of the night, because honestly this election could go either way. I saw a poll that had Rubio up by one and then I saw another which has Cuomo up by two. So it's very close.

Borger: And one of the things you notice not one of the candidates has mentioned Barack Obama, which I think is interesting, especially for Rubio. The economy is still sluggish and yet Rubio has spent his time drawing contrast with himself and Cuomo, instead of bashing Obama-

King: Hold that thought, we do have some projections to make...
CNN can now project that when all the votes are counted Governor Cuomo will have carried the state of Vermont.

59% - 40%

King: And CNN can also project that Senator Marco Rubio will carry the states of Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.

55% - 44%

61% - 38%

57% - 41%

KING:It is Rubio with an early lead, but there are still many more states to come in, and until that person reaches 270 no one will elected President.
Rubio: 28
Cuomo: 3


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NHI
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2011, 09:35:24 am »
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King:We're back now with our panel and Gloria as we look at the big states tonight which ones do you see as the most important?

Borger: Well John, the electoral map favors the democrats, given what Pres. Obama was able to do four years ago. He not only kept every state he won in 2008, save for Indiana, but expanded into Arizona and Georgia. Now Georgia is already off the table, so that is telling, but I think if Cuomo can take Ohio, Virginia and then do well in the western states then he should be fine.

King: And CNN can now project that Sen. Marco Rubio will carry West Virginia along with the state of Indiana.

55% - 44%

52% - 47%

So two more republican stronghold goes for Rubio, but Indiana is certainly the prize of those two, David?

Gergen: Well, Rubio has kept all the states Perry carried in 2012, and taken Georgia back from the Democrats. Now it's premature to say that he's on his way to election, because there are many more states undecided, but if the trend continues and he can snag Ohio  and Florida early then he'll be in great shape.

King:As we take a moment here what do you think the legacy of Pres. Obama will be now that his term is near completion?

Matalin: He will be remembered as a president who made history, being the first African American to be elected president, but in terms of his accomplishments those are far and few between. Perhaps his most important will be that he got Osama Bin Laden, and I think Donna will agree with me.

Brazile: I agree with Mary on that point. The world is certainly much more stable then when he took office eight years ago, but this has been a president who I believed has been diminished, not by his own doing, but by the doing of republicans who's goal was to make him a one term president and when that failed to trap him in gridlock---

King: Excuse me Donna, you know I wouldn't interrupt you if it weren't important. CNN can now project that Marco Rubio will be the winner in the state of Florida. His home state, Cuomo didn't invest a lot of resources there, but without question this is a significant state for the senator.

56% - 43%


Rubio: 78
Cuomo: 3

8:00

King: It's the top of the hour once again and CNN is now ready to project winners in the following states. For Governor Cuomo we are calling: Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois. and the District of Columbia. That brings the Governor's total to 71 electoral votes.

56% - 43%

59% - 40%

55% - 44%

57% - 42%

57% - 42%

85% - 14%

52% - 47%

As for Sen. Rubio we project the following states: Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, the bell weather of Missouri and Oklahoma. That brings Sen. Rubio's total now to 121 electoral votes.

58% - 41%

56% - 43%

57% - 41%

55% - 44%

As for the state of Maine which awards it's delegates proportionally we are awarding only three delegates to Governor Cuomo at this time. It is still Sen. Rubio with a large lead over Governor Cuomo, but the states highlighted in green are where we still cannot project a winner.




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NHI
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2011, 04:40:25 pm »
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King: So as we look at the map David Gergen what do you believe is going through the Cuomo campaign's mind now?

Gergen: Pennsylvania and Virginia hold the key to Cuomo's victory tonight. I think Ohio and North Carolina will probably go for Rubio, it looks like he's leading comfortably right now and-

King: And to add evidence to that we are now projecting that North Carolina will go for Sen Rubio.

58% - 41%

That now brings his total to 136 electoral votes to Governor Cuomo's 74.

Matalin: Rubio is certainly doing very well, he's taken back three states already from Barack Obama and will probably take New Hampshire by the look of it. I'd be worried if I were the Cuomo campaign now.

King: This race has been so close, with the candidates running neck and neck and now everything has broken for Rubio are these the undecideds?

Borger: I think that maybe part of it, and perhaps a lot of it is Democratic Fatigue, as we've seen it's very hard for a party to win three consecutive elections. Bush did after Reagan in 1988, but Reagan was extremely popular and Obama has not had that fortune. I think this election is heading in Rubio's favor tonight...

10:20

Rubio: 218
Cuomo: 154








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NHI
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2011, 10:01:51 pm »
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King: Republicans have retained control of the Senate and the House tonight, so the makeup of Congress will remain the same, now the question is whether we have divided government or a republican trifecta.

Gergen: The problem for the Cuomo campaign is the states, Obama 2012 states that are still outstanding. Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. All of these Obama carried decisively over Perry in 2012, and Kaine is the senator from the state of Virginia and that state is still undecided.

Virginia:
D: 1,809,818
R: 1,806,892

King: We do have another major projection to make at this time. CNN can now project that Marco Rubio will carry the state of Ohio.

52% - 47%

Gergen: That is certainly a hard state for Cuomo to lose. He's going to need to hold onto the Obama states of 2012. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and a pick up in Arizona would help as well. And Virginia he's got to keep Virginia in the democratic column. If he doe that then he'll cross the finish line but-

King: Hold on David, we have another projection to make, CNN is now projecting

49.53% - 49.47%

Wow, look at that margin.

Borger: With margins like that we are looking at a very close popular vote with it swinging either way.


236
167

It is Marco Rubio who has led all night, but he has yet to close the deal. He has yet to carry any of western states in question.

King: Well, to answer that Gloria CNN is now projecting that Marco Rubio will carry the state of Arizona. That now brings his total to 247 electoral votes. He is getting very close.

Matalin: He's got this now. If he doesn't get it, I'll be surprised. The momentum has been building. He looks to have a fair amount of electoral votes and probably not a majority on the popular vote, but close enough that it'll work wit the Republicans in the congress.

Brazile: Hey look, Cuomo is leading in New Mexico and Colorado, it's close in Nevada. This thing isn't over yet.

10:57
King: As we approach the west coast closing CNN is ready to project that Governor Cuomo is the winner in Colorado. We just called New Mexico a few moments ago, and by our estimates he'll win Colorado, but by a narrow margin without a majority.



11:00
King: It is now 11:00 and we can project that Governor Cuomo has carried: California, along with the states of Hawaii and Washington.

60% - 39%

53% - 46%

55% - 45%

For Sen. Rubio we project: Idaho and North Dakota will go for him when all the votes are in and counted.

61% - 37%

59% - 40%

Let's look at the map now. It is Rubio with a two delegate lead over Cuomo. 254 for Rubio, 252 for Cuomo.



Gergen: Many people said this would be a close race, but I don't think anyone expected this. Frankly, this could end being like 2000 where one wins the popular vote and the other wins the electoral vote.

Matalin: Well it's two for two for Rubio. He's leading in both, he hasn't hit the 50 percent mark but he's right there. Looking at it now he's over 49% to Cuomo 48%.

King: According to CNN the popular vote at this hour is:

Rubio: 49.91%
Cuomo: 48.88%

And CNN can now project that Nevada has gone for Sen. Rubio. This now makes his ten shy of the magic number of 270 electoral votes.
51% - 48%

Matalin: If he carries Wisconsin he's golden...

12:30
King: Welcome back to CNN's election coverage and it is now 12:30 AM the Wednesday November 9th. We still cannot project a winner for the presidency.


Rubio: 260
Cuom: 259

It is Rubio with a one delegate lead over Cuomo who still trails Rubio in the popular vote, though barley. Rubio leads Cuomo by less than a point. Cuomo having just crossed the 49 percent mark after carrying Oregon. Two states remain in quesiton, Iowa and Wisconsin.
With Cuomo up in Wisconsin and Rubio up in Iowa we have to start looking at the possibility that this election may not be decided for days. Though the Rubio campaign has dismissed the idea of a recount, the Cuomo campaign has not ruled it out, depending upon the margin.

Gergen: They're essentially tied in Wisconsin, with Mario only about by tiny percent. I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes him.

Brazile: In 2000 the Democrats lost the White House b/c of Florida, tonight people are saying we could lose it because of Iowa and Wisconsin. I'm a little more optimistic that Cuomo will pull it out. There's enough ground space that if a few votes shift in Iowa and he'll overtake Rubio.

Iowa: 621,651 (R)          
         621,023    (D)

Wisconsin: 1,065,743 (D)
                 1,064,020 (R)

It is a 628 vote lead by Rubio in Iowa and in Wisconsin, and 1,723 for Cuomo. And it appears that CNN is now projecting Wisconsin for Governor Cuomo. This now puts him in the lead tonight with 269 electoral votes to Rubio's 260. He is shy one vote from 270 and it all rests on Iowa.

49% - 49%





                


















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NHI
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2011, 09:32:04 am »
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King:We're back now with our panel and as we went to break CNN projected that the state of Alaska will go for Marco Rubio. Which brings his total to 263 electoral votes.

59% - 40%

So the question remains on Iowa at this hour. Marco Rubio still leads Governor Cuomo, but it is only by 628 votes. The question is will the state go for Rubio?

Brazile: In some aspect it would be best if it didn't at this point. Governor Cuomo is behind in the popular vote, but he is the closest electoral vote. If Iowa swings for him that gives him 275 electoral votes, enough to become president.

Borger: The problem then in you'll have republicans screaming that Cuomo won the election unfairly.

Brazile: And I say that's justice.

Borger: The problem that could theoretically exist is Rubio carries Iowa which puts this election in a tie and throws it into the House. Either way this election is going to be controversial.

King: David, the Rubio campaign has insisted they will not pursue a recount in any case, smart move?

Gergen: That's the thing to say when you're ahead and he still is in the popular vote, but it is the electoral vote that matters now. I think if this goes into a tie, you'll see both campaigns looking into recounts, especially in the close states like Wisconsin. A small shift there would put Rubio over the top.

Borger: And for the Cuomo camp they'll want to look at Arizona, another close state that Rubio carried. The problem that exist is the House will decide this election for the president and the senate will tap the vice president. Both are controlled by the Republicans, but there will exist the controversy that the republicans stole the election.

Gergen: If that happens, Rubio will have something George Bush didn't have in 2000, the popular vote. He won that, he's got the will of the people. It'll be tough, but he'll manage. I think whatever the result in this election will prompt the discussion about finally abolishing the electoral college, in order to prevent something like this from happening again...

King: CNN is now learning that Governor Cuomo has called Sen. Rubio. We do not know if there is a concession from either side, but he did call him within the last few minutes. David your thoughts?

Gergen: I think the Cuomo campaign sees where this is going. Iowa will probably go for Rubio and then the election will be tied. The decision goes into the house and Cuomo I mean Rubio becomes president.

1:20
King: It is now 1:20 here on the east coast and at this hour CNN can now project that Marco Rubio has won the state of Iowa. Thus

49.49% - 49.44%


Rubio: 269
Cuomo: 269

Marco Rubio/Jon Huntsman: 49.82%
Andrew Cuomo/Tim Kaine: 49.16%









« Last Edit: October 21, 2011, 09:58:23 am by NHI »Logged

Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2011, 10:17:59 am »
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Awesome. I was hoping this was where you were going.

Cuomo's my favorite Democrat, so I was kind of pulling for him (even as a moderate Republican), but I'm very interested in where this timeline is going to go.
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SirNick
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2011, 01:33:41 pm »
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Please remember that when the election goes to the House, states vote in-bloc and state delegations have to vote unanimously for one candidate. So if New York has 25 Democrats and 4 Republicans, and the 4 don't want to vote for Cuomo...then New York isn't casting its one vote for Cuomo...
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2011, 06:01:09 pm »
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didn't some states approve a law so the winner of the popular vote would win their EVs??
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LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2011, 10:47:27 pm »
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didn't some states approve a law so the winner of the popular vote would win their EVs??
Only goes in effect when their pact gets majority of EV's
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NHI
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2011, 12:00:34 pm »
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Rubio taking questions the day after the election.

Following the tie Rubio held a press conference the next morning, but treaded carefully, despite winning the popular vote.
"While we have won the popular vote I understand we will have a process here that needs to take place and from there will proceed."

"Will you push for a recount?"

"No, for the simple reason that the popular vote is not in question, I know the Cuomo campaign is looking into a recount in Iowa, but at this time we have not plans to purse that interest."

Cuomo addresses the press.

"Certainly the election's result proved to be interesting. The question now remains who will be elected President of the United States. Despite winning the popular vote Sen. Rubio will most likely be elected by the House due to the majority held by the Republicans and so it is because of that they we are pursuing a recount in the state of Iowa, due to the narrowness of Mr. Rubio's victory."

"But how do you explain him winning the popular vote, even if you end up winning the electoral vote?"

"I'm not going to further discuss that at this time."


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SirNick
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2011, 03:06:31 pm »
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I think the question "But how do you explain him winning the popular vote, even if you end up winning the electoral vote?" is really unrealistic and they wouldn't ask the candidate that question. Its a math question. You win big margins in the most populous states.
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NHI
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2011, 04:55:57 pm »
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The Vote

In January 2013, and The House and Senate took on the heated role of deciding the President and Vice President. The Senate voted for the Vice President and Jon Huntsman was elected easily.

The race for President was much harder. Despite a Republican controlled Congress, many states would not vote for either candidate, despite the candidate winning the popular vote in the state.

The Results:
Rubio: 29/50
Cuomo: 21/50
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2011, 06:30:53 pm »
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I had kind of hoped for Cuomo/Huntsman.
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2011, 05:47:15 pm »
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Is this going to be continued/concluded?
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NHI
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2011, 06:01:55 pm »
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Yes. I'm working on a second timeline at the same time, but plan to have a continuation of this with Cuomo challenging Rubio for a rematch in 2020.
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