Lingle for Hawaii

[Rochambeau jk I'm Hamilton]

My predictions:

D: Hirono 58%
R: Lingle  40%

D: Case 50%
R: Lingle 48%

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

D: Hirono 58%
R: Lingle  40%

D: Case 50%
R: Lingle 48%

I think both will lead Lingle by 10-15%.

[NCeriale]

Let's say hypothetically Obama's margin goes down a little bit from 08 because of the economy to a high 60 win in Hawaii. Would Lingle even be able to win enough cross-over supporters to win?

No.  Let's say Obama wins the state 68-32.  That would mean Lingle would need to run 18-19 points better than the GOP Presidential candidate.  Given the more partisan nature of a Senate race and the fact Lingle left office with approvals in the low 40s, that seems virtually impossible.  It's only been 1.5 years since her governorship ended and I don't think that is enough time for negative perceptions to have eased.  After Hanabusa unseated Djou in a GOP wave year when Obama wasn't even on the ticket, there is nothing to suggest such a monumental upset is brewing.  Maybe if the Dems nominate an extremely weak candidate, but I can't see that happening either.

Also to say that Baumgartner is "a million times" better than Rossi is a huge stretch, but I don't want to derail the subject of this thread.

Dont forget that it was the first time Hawaii ever sent an incumbent congressman packing

[Ogre Mage]

My predictions:

D: Hirono 58%
R: Lingle  40%

D: Case 50%
R: Lingle 48%

I think both will lead Lingle by 10-15%.

This is kinda off topic, but perhaps the more important question than Lingle's candidacy is -- who will win the Democratic Primary?  I hope Hirono wins.  She has the advantage of being a sitting Congresscritter and Inouye, Akaka and the rest of the Establishment in Hawaii is lining up behind her.  I think she is favored, but I suspect Case still has a solid shot.

[RogueBeaver]

Hirono wins that primary. Inouye runs the party and he's not alone in being extremely pissed about Case's Akaka challenge 5 years ago. Doubt Case wins the primary, though Lingle should hope he does. The whole thing is a 2002 rerun, but most likely with a very different GE result.

[ottermax]

Did anyone realize that this is virtually the same set of candidates as the election for Governor in 2002? It's a sequel 10 years later... although circumstances are quite different, I wonder if the results will actually be that different.

At least it looks very likely that we will get another female senator!

[RogueBeaver]

I just said that in the post above yours.

[Jbrase]

Inouye runs the party and he's not alone in being extremely pissed about Case's Akaka challenge 5 years ago.

Just looked it up, how did Case get 45% against Akaka

[Ogre Mage]

Inouye runs the party and he's not alone in being extremely pissed about Case's Akaka challenge 5 years ago.

Just looked it up, how did Case get 45% against Akaka

I have relatives in Hawaii and heard that by 2006, Akaka was starting to get rather doddering in his old age.  The buzz around that fact continued at a somewhat low level until Case broke the whole thing open by declaring against Akaka and making insinuations that Akaka was past his prime.  Some folks agreed, but the Democratic establishment was furious.  I did not watch the campaign closely, but from what I heard Akaka at times looked muddled and confused, playing into Case's attacks.  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've already seen two instances of the MSM spooging themselves over Linda Lingle, falsely claiming her to be popular when she's not anymore. This is going to be a long campaign season.

[Ogre Mage]

I've already seen two instances of the MSM spooging themselves over Linda Lingle, falsely claiming her to be popular when she's not anymore. This is going to be a long campaign season.

The mainland MSM is frequently clueless when it comes to Hawaii politics, though whether they are truly clueless or disingenuously trying to create a story in this case is unknown.

I also wanted to add a bit of a disclaimer on my post about Akaka.  While there were suggestions in 2006 that he was getting senile, I personally don't know if this was the case.  I don't live in the state and don't feel in a good position to make that assessment.  Case tried to capitalize politically on those rumors and earned a lot of ill will as a result.

Obama being at the top of the ticket is a massive problem for Lingle, but her own record is almost as big of a problem.  She oversaw the utter boondoggle known as the Superferry, her handling of the state's budget cuts infuriated the powerful unions and left the public particularly dissatisfied over cuts to education and her close association with and campaigning for Sarah Palin angered many.  I think those items are the primary reasons for the large drop-off in her job approval during her second term. 

On a personal level, I lost all respect for Lingle after she vetoed Hawaii's civil unions bill.

[HST1948]

I've already seen two instances of the MSM spooging themselves over Linda Lingle, falsely claiming her to be popular when she's not anymore. This is going to be a long campaign season.

The mainland MSM is frequently clueless when it comes to Hawaii politics, though whether they are truly clueless or disingenuously trying to create a story in this case is unknown.

I also wanted to add a bit of a disclaimer on my post about Akaka.  While there were suggestions in 2006 that he was getting senile, I personally don't know if this was the case.  I don't live in the state and don't feel in a good position to make that assessment.  Case tried to capitalize politically on those rumors and earned a lot of ill will as a result.

Obama being at the top of the ticket is a massive problem for Lingle, but her own record is almost as big of a problem.  She oversaw the utter boondoggle known as the Superferry, her handling of the state's budget cuts infuriated the powerful unions and left the public particularly dissatisfied over cuts to education and her close association with and campaigning for Sarah Palin angered many.  I think those items are the primary reasons for the large drop-off in her job approval during her second term. 

On a personal level, I lost all respect for Lingle after she vetoed Hawaii's civil unions bill.

Agreed.

[redcommander]

I'm not sure why Cook automatically jumped the gun and made the race a Toss Up. Perhaps he has some internal polling that we don't know about.

[mondale84]

I'm not sure why Cook automatically jumped the gun and made the race a Toss Up. Perhaps he has some internal polling that we don't know about.

He has no internal polling....like everyone else: buying into the conventional wisdom and slurping up the hype...

[cinyc]

I'm not sure why Cook automatically jumped the gun and made the race a Toss Up. Perhaps he has some internal polling that we don't know about.

It probably has something to do with PPP showing Hirono only 5 points ahead of Case in the primary, who loses to Lingle by 2.  And even Hirino only leads Lingle by 6.

Contrary to popular belief, time out of office can heal popularity wounds - and has here.  Lingle is above water.

[Nhoj]

I'm not sure why Cook automatically jumped the gun and made the race a Toss Up. Perhaps he has some internal polling that we don't know about.

It probably has something to do with PPP showing Hirono only 5 points ahead of Case in the primary, who loses to Lingle by 2.  And even Hirino only leads Lingle by 6.

Contrary to popular belief, time out of office can heal popularity wounds - and has here.  Lingle is above water.

The comment you are replying to came out before the poll did.