Margins, Obama vs. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney

[pbrower2a]

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The latter is about what I would expect in a state in which the President has a 43% approval rating at the time.  Of course Romney will need Ohio with which to win but President Obama has other possibilities that would assure his win. But Rick Perry is showing himself thoroughly unelectable. Romney is electable.

In view of how badly Rick Perry does in Ohio -- that he would lose Ohio by 9% -- it is easy to see why I am going to drop him and start a new thread involving President Obama against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Perry has become a travesty, and someone who loses Ohio by by 9% would lose nationwide by about 10%. Perry is going into an electoral collapse as Romney holds his own against President Obama in Ohio. I think that Perry would lose such states as Arizona, Georgia,  Indiana, Montana, and the Dakotas, and in view of his unfortunate ties to a pastor who claims that Mormons aren't real Christians, he might lose Utah. He would win Texas only because of the Favorite Son effect.    I have just locked the Obama vs. Perry/Romney threads as I now consider Rick Perry in an irreversible collapse.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1018.pdf

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary.  


under 1% white
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10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

(near-blank map to be inserted... I will be back with it)

Obama vs. Cain

[pbrower2a]

recent PPP  polls:

WV -- nothing on Obama vs. Cain.

IA  -- He leads Herman Cain, 47-41

NE -- nothing on Cain

NC -- nothing on Cain

That goes back a month. PPP apparently didn't take Herman Cain seriously until about a week ago.  

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary.  


under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Cain

[pbrower2a]

Some others:

MI, SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, Herman Cain 32%.

FL, Marist/NBC News:  47% Obama  41% Cain

SC, Marist/NBC News: 43% Perry  42% Obama

NY, Siena  58-32 Obama vs. Cain

VA, Quinnipiac: Obama: 45%  Cain: 43%  

LA, Clarus/WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans): nothing

NH, several: nothing

NJ, Quinnipiac: 47-38 Obama vs. Cain

MD, Gonzalez research: nothing

PA, Magellan: nothing
 


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii and Illinois:

Hawaii Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 56%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 63%
Herman Cain................................................... 30%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 59%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HI_1020424.pdf


Illinois:

Mitt Romney  38.5%  Obama  46.1%

Herman Cain 34.0%  Obama  46.3%

http://news.siu.edu/2011/10/101911tew11040.html

In case anyone is still curious after I froze the other margin study that involved Rick Perry, Rick Perry does execrably in both states.



under 1% white
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10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee. This state has gone so far to the Right so fast that whatever good I used to say about the state's politics is no longer true.

The plutocratic spirit that got the state sliced and diced in the early 1860s is back in vogue:

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Of course a pure plutocracy is the primary objective of the GOP.

No ambiguity here:

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http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MTSU_Poll_Fall2011_Report.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1666&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

It could be a post-Qaddafi bounce.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[Yelnoc]

Can we get maps without your Obama +6 "corrections"?

[izixs]

I thought these maps were without the +6.

[pbrower2a]

Can we get maps without your Obama +6 "corrections"?

These maps have no "+6 correction" much unlike my old approval maps.  They are head-to-head matchups and raw margins. Colors show the intensity of the split, and approval ratings in no way appear on these maps. They may be shown with matchups.

So let us suppose that Cain leads Obama 47-39 in Texas.  Three possible guesses  for the result are reasonable and fairly easy to explain.  One, the easiest, would be to split the difference among the undecided or non-responding amount 50-50. That would give

Cain 54  Obama 46

in the assumption that the undecided would split 50-50.

One would be to split the responses proportionally:

Cain 54.7 Obama 45.3

on the assumption that those who can't make up their minds are either not going to vote or are going to make a protest vote through a vote for a third-party candidate.

It could also be an average of the two, roughly

Cain 54.3  Obama 45.7

You could also have geometric means, logarithmic means, fifth-power means, or even assume that all of the undecided will go one way or the other. You could adjust it any way you want, but you would have to justify your model and its mathematics.

The coming Presidential election has its unique characteristics, most notably that we have the worst economic hardships in over seventy years for which both major Parties will get some of the blame. Who gets the most? Ask again in a year. The President has a far-higher approval rating than Congress even when he has approval ratings around 40%. We have ideologues suggesting that Big Business not hire people so that people will vote for any Republican , and we have people who have no higher objective for the next year than to ensure that President Obama is defeated. 

OK -- when it comes to any margin, anything 4% or less is a virtual tie.  We should all know that. But if most of the virtual ties lean slightly toward the President, then that still suggests that the President has an advantage in those states. On November 7, 2012 maybe all but one of the virtual ties will have transformed themselves into unambiguous victories for President Obama or for his opponent.   

Much will change within a year, and nobody can predict quite how. I just can't see President Obama losing Massachusetts or winning Alabama, or winning Georgia while losing Ohio.  I still see this upcoming Presidential election as a variant of the last three Presidential elections, and the margin map for Obama vs. Romney seems to show that so far.   

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, of all places!

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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-romney-cain-on-top-in-arizona/

Post-Qaddafi  bump?


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, PPP... could a huge number of Obama  voters of 2008 have moved away, perhaps to Arizona? Casino and hotel workers voted heavily for President Obama.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_1027513.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[Yelnoc]

Can we get maps without your Obama +6 "corrections"?

These maps have no "+6 correction" much unlike my old approval maps.  They are head-to-head matchups and raw margins. Colors show the intensity of the split, and approval ratings in no way appear on these maps. They may be shown with matchups.

Oh good, thanks.

[Yank2133]

He wouldn't need the "race" card.  Cain lack of knowledge on US foreign policy and the economy is enough for Obama to wipe the floor with him. On top that, why would he use the "race" card against Romney or Perry?

Do people really think Obama is that desperate?

[pbrower2a]

it would be hard for obama to use the race card if cain is the nominee easier if romney and extremely easier if perry is the nominee. i still think romney will be the nominee

Race card? The President recognizes it as a losing proposition.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin

 

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1028925.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin

 

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1028925.pdf

under 1% white
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What do you know? Rasmussen checks in with Wisconsin:

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

(I am no longer taking Rick Perry seriously, but even if I did, I would figure that Rasmussen has a transposition error on the results). Rasmussen and PPP apparently concur here, which is amazing. So much for bias!

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

Washington (university poll)

If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE
NAMES: Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Rick Perry, for whom would you
vote for?)
Obama - certain 46.4%
Obama – could change 6.1%
Undecided – lean Obama 1.5%
Undecided 5.3%
Undecided – lean Perry 2.1%
Perry – could change 7.9%
Perry – certain 30.7%
Split sample = 469 registered voters, +/- 4.5%, Oct 10-30, 2011

Total:  Obama,  54.0% Perry, 40.7%


If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE
NAMES: Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you
vote for?)
Obama - certain 42.4%
Obama – could change 5.8%
Undecided – lean Obama 2.0%
Undecided 9.1%
Undecided – lean Romney 3.3%
Romney – could change 5.5%
Romney – certain 31.9%
Split sample = 469 registered voters, +/- 4.5%, Oct 10-30, 2011

Total: Obama 50.2%  Romney 40.7%

...no questions are asked on Obama vs. Cain, who I figure also has no chance in Washington state.

The Texas Tribune had an internet poll on Texas, and to make a long story short, President Obama was behind Romney, Perry, and Cain by unremarkable margins. Unfortunately it is an internet poll and I cannot use it because such a poll is inherently unrepresentative.   

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/cain-edges-perry-new-uttt-poll/

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/103111.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

North Carlina, PPP:

As last time, North Carolina is a virtual tie, but this time the edge goes slightly (1%) to Mitt Romney even if the President's approval rating is up a bit from last time:

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Herman Cain appears for the first time, and he underperforms Romney. This is before any accusations of hanky-panky:

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North Carolina could be easily decided by whether some right-wing third-party candidate pulls more voters away from Mitt Romney than some left-wing candidate pulls voters from President Obama, as in 2008, even if that candidate gets less than 1% of the vote.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania.  It has a huge number of undecided, and it is registered voters. The gaps look like 2008 redux.

http://images.lancasteronline.com/local_old/490491/FranklinMarshallCollegeStatePoll11032011.pdf

Obama 40 - Perry 20
Obama 38 - Santorum 25
Obama 38 - Cain 24
Obama 35 - Romney 26

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They're not happy with the results that the President and the politicians get in general, but the GOP alternatives to the President haven't been able to take advantage of economic distress -- yet.   The potential Favorite Son Rick Santorum will not do better in Pennsylvania; there is no advantage for a Favorite Son who is political poison. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP. President Obama has a lower approval rating than disapproval by a small margin, but he would win the state by a high-single digit number against Romney and blow out everyone else.

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The two Maine Congressional districts are much more similar to each other than are the three Congressional districts of Nebraska. That distinction brings neither district in play. One might go by 'only' 8% or 9% against Mitt, though.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1104.pdf


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

First the good news for Republicans seeking to win Ohio:

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So they ought to be in good position in which to take the state. All that they need is a candidate who can pick off the 'moderate' and 'independent' vote and win the state perhaps 52-48. Right?

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Not with this crew.  The low approval must be over the economy.

SurveyUSA, Minnesota:

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Minnesota may be drifting R from the Humphrey/Mondale era and may no longer be the strongest (1984) or second-strongest (1972) state for Democrats in a GOP blowout. Obama looks weaker here than he was in 2008, but not enough to put the state in play.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac has polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

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In all three states, the economy is the 'biggest issue'. Mitt Romney so far has an edge on that while the economy is in poor shape; maybe voters think that he has some secret miracle. Herman Cain has yet to convince people that he has a viable solution.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1671


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Mississippi:

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The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter in 1976. That streak is going to hold for a long time.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1110834.pdf


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

 
Obama vs. Romney

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

[izixs]

I think you goofed your maps there.

[pbrower2a]

I think you goofed your maps there.

I most certainly did. Thank you.

Correction made.