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Author Topic: Margins, Obama vs. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney  (Read 9525 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2011, 01:09:10 am »
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Arizona, PPP:

Quote
Arizona Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Herman Cain................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1128925.pdf

Note -- should Herman Cain drop out of the race, I will be dropping the map showing him against President Obama.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney



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« Reply #51 on: December 01, 2011, 09:27:03 am »
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Not surprisingly this poll (CA, Field) changes nothing. Obama has a 10% edge upon Romney and a 20% edge upon Gingrich. Cain goes unmentioned. It's only a matter of time before I drop the map for Herman Cain; he has to formally drop out or his campaign has to disband for me to do that.

 

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2011/11/30/16/55/19C6wJ.So.4.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney




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« Reply #52 on: December 01, 2011, 03:33:22 pm »
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Florida, PPP:

Quote
Florida Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Herman Cain................................................... 37%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 11%


Herman Cain might as well drop out of contention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1201925.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #53 on: December 02, 2011, 11:36:28 am »
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SUSA, Washington State:



Herman Cain might as well drop out of contention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1201925.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney

« Last Edit: December 02, 2011, 12:26:38 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #54 on: December 02, 2011, 06:57:42 pm »
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Mitt Romney (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

Newt Gingrich (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%

Herman Cain (R) 45%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

Ron Paul (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

Rick Perry (R) 46%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney


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« Reply #55 on: December 03, 2011, 04:47:20 pm »
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under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

Quote
Atlanta (CNN) -- Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain told supporters Saturday that he is suspending his presidential campaign, which has become hobbled in recent weeks by allegations of sexual harassment and an Atlanta woman's claim that they carried on a 13-year affair.

While he will still be able to raise and spend campaign funds because he did not officially drop out, Cain's White House bid is effectively over.

Cain said he came to the decision after assessing the impact that the allegations were having on his wife, his family and his supporters.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/03/election/2012/cain-campaign/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This explains the disappearing map. I told you what it would take for me to remove Herman Cain from this thread, and a valid condition is now met.

Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney


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« Reply #56 on: December 04, 2011, 03:45:23 am »
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I may soon freeze this thread and start over with a new one. At this point I see Romney vs. Obama as a close race (although the President has yet to begin a partisan campaign and the economy may improve) with a slight edge to the President who would win 280 or so electoral votes. I see 2012 as much like Gore vs. Dubya except  that the President would add Colorado and Ohio and perhaps trade Pennsylvania for Florida.

Herman Cain would have had his chance had his marital relations been more like those of the President. You can be sure that the President would have never gotten away with even one sordid affair, especially with a white woman, as the right-wing media would expose such with relish... or ketchup, mustard, and pickles if such is your taste. Maybe Worcestershire sauce.

I see Gingrich vs. Obama starting off much like the 2008 election results as the minimum for the President (I find the pink shade for Kentucky and the medium-red shade for Kansas incredible, but I can easily see the President winning two of Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri while winning North Carolina and Virginia solidly with other gains imaginable. Ohio seems out of reach for Newt Gingrich to an extent that it isn't for Mitt Romney.

At this stage I can say that the auto bailout has saved the President because Ohio, which depends heavily upon the auto industry for well-paying jobs, seems to be fairly stable for the President. A strengthening economy, should such continue, puts the 2012 Presidential election out of reach. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain... well, whoever gets recognition next as the most viable alternative to Gingrich and Romney among Republicans.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney


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« Reply #57 on: December 05, 2011, 04:43:03 am »
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Quote
Colorado Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 42%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1207925.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney



« Last Edit: December 07, 2011, 03:17:55 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #58 on: December 08, 2011, 08:33:06 am »
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Quinnipiac,  FL, OH, PA:


Quote
Matching President Obama against either Gingrich or Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them - the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:

    Florida: Romney with 45 percent to Obama's 42 percent; Obama at 46 percent to Gingrich's 44 percent.
    Ohio: Romney at 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent; Gingrich with 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent.
    Pennsylvania: Obama edging Romney 46 - 43 percent; Obama tops Gingrich 48 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1678&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney




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« Reply #59 on: December 08, 2011, 03:11:55 pm »
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Survey USA/ WXIA-TV (NBC 11, Atlanta)

Quote
In the November general election, the survey shows either Gingrich or Romney would defeat the expected Democratic nominee, President Barack Obama.  Gingrich defeats Obama 48% to 42%, and Romney defeats Obama 49% to 42%. No Democrat has won a presidential race in Georgia since 1992.  In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 5 points.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney





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« Reply #60 on: December 08, 2011, 04:14:11 pm »
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PPP, NC.

Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1208925.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney

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« Reply #61 on: December 09, 2011, 12:41:37 pm »
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Quote
In Pennsylvania, Obama slightly edges Romney 45 percent to 41 percent, the poll shows. He bests Gingrich 52 percent to 35 percent.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2011/12/poll-in-pa-casey-faring-well-obama-shaky.html


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney


« Last Edit: December 11, 2011, 12:08:18 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #62 on: December 11, 2011, 12:19:20 pm »
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MSNBC/Marist:

Florida:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

46% Approve
45% Disapprove

...

51% Barack Obama
39% Newt Gingrich

48% Barack Obama
41% Mitt Romney

49% Barack Obama
36% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_Florida_December_2011.pdf

South Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

46% Barack Obama
42% Newt Gingrich

45% Barack Obama
42% Mitt Romney

47% Barack Obama
37% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_South_Carolina_December%202011.pdf

This is surprising... until you realize that Newt Gingrich isn't doing well in neighboring Georgia for a Favorite Son.  This is the first poll that shows the President with a positive approval rating in Florida, and the first in which I have seen him within striking range of victory in South Carolina in a long time.

I am reasonably satisfied that President Obama would now defeat Bachmann or Perry in either state. If you don't like this result, then just wait a while for Florida, which gets polled often. Outliers don't  thrive on this map.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



 
Obama vs. Romney



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« Reply #63 on: December 13, 2011, 09:06:59 pm »
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MSNBC/Marist:

Florida:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

46% Approve
45% Disapprove

...

51% Barack Obama
39% Newt Gingrich

48% Barack Obama
41% Mitt Romney

49% Barack Obama
36% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_Florida_December_2011.pdf

South Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

46% Barack Obama
42% Newt Gingrich

45% Barack Obama
42% Mitt Romney

47% Barack Obama
37% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_South_Carolina_December%202011.pdf

This is surprising... until you realize that Newt Gingrich isn't doing well in neighboring Georgia for a Favorite Son.  This is the first poll that shows the President with a positive approval rating in Florida, and the first in which I have seen him within striking range of victory in South Carolina in a long time.

I am reasonably satisfied that President Obama would now defeat Bachmann or Perry in either state. If you don't like this result, then just wait a while for Florida, which gets polled often. Outliers don't  thrive on this map.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. .... I can't decide yetRON PAUL.



 
Obama vs. Romney

« Last Edit: December 13, 2011, 09:08:53 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #64 on: December 13, 2011, 09:29:32 pm »
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In view of the recent surge by Ron Paul in the Republican primary polls, I am now going with him as the "neither Gingrich nor Romney" alternative for now.  

Backtracking a little (to early November),

NC, PPP Obama 47-42
CO, PPP Obama 48-39
MT, PPP  Paul 48-40
AZ, PPP  Paul 43-42
PA,  PPP Obama 46-42
CA, PPP Obama 57-32
MS, PPP Paul  57-42
OH, PPP Obama 50-36
ME, PPP Obama 53-34


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney


« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 10:13:07 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #65 on: December 14, 2011, 02:14:10 pm »
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pbrower, this FL poll you are using is from August ...
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« Reply #66 on: December 14, 2011, 02:19:52 pm »
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Quote
Virginia Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 40%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

The Republican nominee must win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania if he loses Virginia.

The Senate and Congressional general ballot should be interesting in Virginia. I can almost smell a disaster erupting in Virginia for the Republicans -- and Virginia has no volcanoes.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney



« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 10:14:43 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #67 on: December 14, 2011, 10:16:34 pm »
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pbrower, this FL poll you are using is from August ...

Troublesome post deleted. I really need to get my eyes checked.
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« Reply #68 on: December 16, 2011, 11:22:32 am »
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South Dakota -- the (Mitchell SD) Daily Republic, Nielson Brothers Polling (whoever that is -- it is not connected to ACNielsen, the media ratings firm)

Quote
Romney led Obama 48 percent to 29 percent, with 9 percent undecided. 13 percent say they will not vote for either candidate.

Gingrich led Obama 51 to 31 percent, with 8 percent undecided, and 10 percent saying they will not vote for either candidate.

Ron Paul not mentioned.

http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/60056/group/homepage/

...Losing South Dakota by only 9% was the best that any Democratic nominee has done in a two-way Presidential election since George McGovern  (who was the favorite son that year!) in 1972.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.



Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney



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« Reply #69 on: December 16, 2011, 06:13:31 pm »
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PPP, New Mexico. Binary choices are disasters for Romney, Paul, and Gingrich. Add Gary Johnson as the Libertarian nominee, and the Republicans do even worse. Johnson picks up more votes from people who would vote for a Republican nominee than from President Obama and about half the respondents for "undecided" in binary choices.

Gary Johnson could be the 2008 equivalent of Ross Perot if this poll he is the Libertarian nominee. Sure, he would be a sort of Favorite Son, and I would be interested in how he would do in other states.
Quote
New Mexico Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%


Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 56%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 39%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 12%



Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 9%


Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Newt
Gingrich, and Gary Johnson running as a
Libertarian, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 28%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 20%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Gary Johnson running as a
Libertarian, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 23%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1216513.pdf


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney




« Last Edit: December 21, 2011, 10:26:20 am by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #70 on: December 21, 2011, 10:44:00 pm »
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"Purple State Poll"

IOWA:

46-39 Obama/Romney
48-36 Obama/Gingrich
48-37 Obama/Jeb Bush

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

45-48 Obama/Romney
49-41 Obama/Gingrich
48-43 Obama/Jeb Bush

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/Purple-Poll-Results-12.2011.pdf

VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)

Obama                46%    Gingrich             41%
Obama                42%    Romney             44%  

Both Gingrich and Romney do very badly among college-educated people, which might suggest that the well-educated can see right through Gingrich and Romney.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1684

New York (Quinnipiac)

In an early look at the 2012 presidential race, President Obama tops two leading Republican challengers:

* 53 - 35 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney;

* 55 - 32 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620111218015

Yawn!

NEW JERSEY (Eagleton/Rutgers)

The poll also finds that Obama holds a strong lead in head-to-head matchups with all three GOP front-runners. While Romney does best, Obama leads him by 51 percent to 32 percent. The president doubles Gingrich, 54 percent to 27 percent, while Paul loses, 50 percent to 29 percent.

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2012/2012ElectionDec2011.pdf
  


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney




« Last Edit: December 21, 2011, 11:07:17 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #71 on: December 22, 2011, 06:30:24 am »
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Some of these polls seem really weird. Obama winning South Carolina in all 3 polls? Obama leading Gingrich in Kentucky and Kansas, despite trailing in Ohio?
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« Reply #72 on: December 22, 2011, 07:58:10 am »
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Some of these polls seem really weird. Obama winning South Carolina in all 3 polls? Obama leading Gingrich in Kentucky and Kansas, despite trailing in Ohio?

1. Only one entity polls Kansas, and that one has a result that looks like a transposition error.  But even as a transposition error it is amazingly close, at least with Newt Gingrich. Kansas should be one of the very strongest states for any Republican against Barack Obama, who lost it by nearly 15%. Only three counties went for the President, and even Sedgwick County (Wichita) went decisively for John McCain.

Kansas may have been a haven for Republican moderates when Dole and Kassebaum were Senators, but that is past. The state may not be the most polarized in America on 'race', but it also has few minorities. The economic base heavily relies upon ranching, an activity that seems not to require a highly-educated workforce, let alone big government. Except for metro Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, and Lawrence, it is not at all urban. 

Any Republican nominee who loses Kansas does so in a debacle resembling the Presidential  election of 1932, 1936, or 1964.

2. South Carolina may be undergoing political change. Take a good look at its neighbor North Carolina. Like North Carolina it is attracting many Yankee migrants, and those bring relatively liberal values with them. South Carolina is urbanizing, and if it lacks a giant metro area like Atlanta or Charlotte it has several mid-sized cities big enough to need Big Government. It's easy to imagine that the public sector is overstretched as the Hard Right dominates.

The last Democratic nominee to win South Carolina was Good Ol' Boy Jimmy Carter in 1976 in a one-time election in which poor Southern whites voted their economic interests just as poor Southern blacks did. Should that happen again, then President Obama wins South Carolina. Does anyone see that happening? President Obama has an outside chance of winning the state in something like a 55-45 split of the Presidential vote nationwide.

3. Kentucky used to be a legitimate swing state. That is over. In 2008 the current President was a very poor cultural match for a very rural state with few minorities. This was the ninth-worst state for President Obama in 2008, and he lost the state by 16%.  It's safe to say that if President Obama wins the state then he has won a landslide in the electoral college... and he has won over the sorts who voted for Bill Clinton but not for him.

4. Ohio has consistently been close. Such is exactly what one expects in a 50-50 election. Several states seem to bounce around the 50-50 area, and except for Colorado (becoming a disaster for the GOP) and Arizona (would have been close if someone other than John McCain were the nominee)  those are the states that went from Dubya to Obama. The medium-to-large states most  in question next year for the President will be Arizona, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. The Republican nominee will have to win every one of these states to have a real chance. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Republican pipe dreams in 2012, and I don't see Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire unless he throws resources into the state more critical elsewhere. 

So far I see a pattern. The 2012 Presidential election looks like a GOP disaster with any GOP nominee other than Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney is in the position in which he has six or so critical states to win, all of them easily characterized as 50-50 propositions. He must seal the deal on them all or lose. One chance in 128 is a very poor position (the chance of getting six coin tosses going one's way) and a horrible proposition. The six states in question are diverse enough that no single appeal works in them all, and that they are scattered enough that spirited campaigns in them all will be difficult.  If Romney strengthens in Arizona or Missouri but loses ground in Ohio or Virginia then he is defeated.

The position of Mitt Romney ten and a half months before the Presidential election looks much like that of John McCain around late August or early September of 2008 -- having a chance to win if everything went right by winning Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. The position in which anyone else is looks much like the electoral result of 2008, perhaps with President Obama exchanging Indiana for Arizona or Missouri.  Such is a difference between the President having about 265 electoral votes as near-sure things and having about 360 electoral votes as near-sure things.   
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« Reply #73 on: December 22, 2011, 09:17:48 am »
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Nevada (University of Nevada/Las Vegas Review-Journal/CBS 8:

Obama had 45.7 percent support compared with 39.8 percent for Romney in the survey, a six-point advantage. The remaining 14.5 percent said they didn't like either choice or didn't know whom to pick.

The president crushed U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, 45.4 percent to 35.7 percent, in the poll for a 10-point advantage. And Obama stomped Newt Gingrich by 12 points, 47.3 percent to 35.4 percent.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/obama-the-one-to-beat-in-nevada-poll-shows-136055218.html?ref=218

Nevada has an even worse economy than Michigan or Ohio, and President Obama is ahead.
  


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney

« Last Edit: December 22, 2011, 09:29:37 am by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #74 on: January 10, 2012, 07:10:14 pm »
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The first statewide poll pitting the President against potential challengers since Christmas.

Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 41%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 8%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Rick Santorum................................................ 46%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011012.pdf
  


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul.



 
Obama vs. Romney




Really a dreadful showing for Republicans in a state that they have lost only twice since 1964, and a state that they absolutely must win if they are to unseat President Obama. If this state is decided by a razor-thin margin in 2012, President Obama wins.

Almost any strong third-party or independent candidate wins the race for President Obama.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 07:15:28 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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