Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[ag]

What I am having problems understanding is "If this election was rigged (as some people have suggested) why did United Russia rig it to lose their overall majority?"

It is rigged, but only partially. The real results are underneath the reporting in most places, they just added some percentage points to the tally of the ruling party. Rigging was highly variable. In places like Chechnya the results are simply fake. In Moscow the vote share of UR is about 15 to 20 percentage points above what it should have been. On the other hand, it looks like faking was only minor in the surrounding region. I guess, the new Moscow mayor needed to prove he can "do his job." In the end, it got them majority in the Duma, but not of the popular vote.

To sum up, the reason they didnt' get a majority is only because their faking ability was not unlimited and their "true" vote share did fall dramatically. But the evidence of faking is overwhelming.

[ag]

So, my precinct (the embassy in Mexico City)

406 ballots
3 invalid
403 valid, of which
UR 152 (37.44%)
Commies 79 (19.46%)
JR 62 (15.27%)
Yabloko 50 (12.32%)
LDPR 44 (10.84%)
PR 9 (2.22%)
JC 7 (1.72%)

[ag]

New York City
(BTW, for some reason they sent 39500 ballots there; I wonder why?)

33 invalid ballots
1982 valid ballots of which
Yabloko 695 (34.49%)
UR 440 (21.84%)
Commies 347 (17.22%)
JR 313 (15.53%)
LDPR 131 (6.5%)
JC 34 (1.69%)
PR 22 (1.09%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

New York City
(BTW, for some reason they sent 39500 ballots there; I wonder why?)

33 invalid ballots
1982 valid ballots of which
Yabloko 695 (34.49%)
UR 440 (21.84%)
Commies 347 (17.22%)
JR 313 (15.53%)
LDPR 131 (6.5%)
JC 34 (1.69%)
PR 22 (1.09%)

It's the Big Apple, after all.

[ag]

London was over 40% Apple

[LastVoter]

What I am having problems understanding is "If this election was rigged (as some people have suggested) why did United Russia rig it to lose their overall majority?"

It is rigged, but only partially. The real results are underneath the reporting in most places, they just added some percentage points to the tally of the ruling party. Rigging was highly variable. In places like Chechnya the results are simply fake. In Moscow the vote share of UR is about 15 to 20 percentage points above what it should have been. On the other hand, it looks like faking was only minor in the surrounding region. I guess, the new Moscow mayor needed to prove he can "do his job." In the end, it got them majority in the Duma, but not of the popular vote.

To sum up, the reason they didnt' get a majority is only because their faking ability was not unlimited and their "true" vote share did fall dramatically. But the evidence of faking is overwhelming.

So I am guessing this election was a lot more rigged than the last? I am also wondering why is there no opinion polls showing UR getting less than 45% (at least on the wiki page). Do the Russian opinion polls attempt to predict the rigging of the election by UR too?
edit: the russian wiki shows about 40%(48.5, 46 and 38.1) support for UR in polls. So they rigged it by about 10% towards UR.

[ag]

It wasn't more rigged than the 2007, though it was definitely more rigged than 2003. It's just that in 2007 they, probably, would have won anyway, rigging or no rigging - rigging was the matter of some people having bad taste. This time it is, actually, more material. Also, this time a lot of rigging happened in Moscow, where it is more visible (the new mayor was trying to show he is a reliable vote getter).

And yes, there seems to be evidence most polls are overstating popularity of UR (either because they are not independent, or because they try to predict the "official" numbers).

[General White]

The Ideologies of each of the parties are i believe.

United Russia-Conservative
Communist party-Marxist-Stalinist far far left
A Just Russia-Democratic socialist
Liberal democratic-radical right

Surprisingly the Liberal democratic party is a far right party and is under fascist parties in russia. Found this on wikipidea but i cant send links.

[2952-0-0]

Judging by "official" turnout and ER results, it seems like Chechnya, Kabardino Balkaria, Karachay Cherkessia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chukotka, Tuva, Mordovia, Tyumen, and Yamalo Nenetsia are particularly rigged. It's obvious why results from Caucasus Republics and Chukotka are rigged, but what explains the funny results from other areas? Are their regional strongmen vying for Kremlin influence?

[LastVoter]

It wasn't more rigged than the 2007, though it was definitely more rigged than 2003. It's just that in 2007 they, probably, would have won anyway, rigging or no rigging - rigging was the matter of some people having bad taste. This time it is, actually, more material. Also, this time a lot of rigging happened in Moscow, where it is more visible (the new mayor was trying to show he is a reliable vote getter).

And yes, there seems to be evidence most polls are overstating popularity of UR (either because they are not independent, or because they try to predict the "official" numbers).

I am guessing the poll with 38.6% is probably pretty close to the actual results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

99.48%?

I mean, I know Chechnya's results are always rigged, but...99.48%?

The big man down there isn't exactly the most subtle regional strongman on the planet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To start with, anyway. More interesting ones tomorrow. Obviously I'll correct any serious errors.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what are Putin's areas of genuine strength? Lower Volga/Urals/Trans-Urals and the Far East?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems that most of the really strong ER/UR areas have officially more autonomy than average; I suppose this is because (in practice) this means that stronger regional heavies are in control than elsewhere. O.K, it's far from a perfect pattern. But it's sort of (just about) there.

[smoltchanov]

The Ideologies of each of the parties are i believe.

United Russia-Conservative
Communist party-Marxist-Stalinist far far left
A Just Russia-Democratic socialist
Liberal democratic-radical right

Surprisingly the Liberal democratic party is a far right party and is under fascist parties in russia. Found this on wikipidea but i cant send links.

Almost totally wrong)))

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

Commies and Just Russia - about right, but both parties are still influenced (and rather strongly) by Kremlin, though JR tries to become "somewhat more independent" as of late.

LD is a party of one man - Vladimir Zhirinovski. It doesn't has a sort of ideology, but a potpourri of right-wing and left-wing slogans with rather efffective messenger (him). A typical KGB-creature - mixture of far -right, far-left and nationalism is a typical set of beliefs for KGB-employee)))

[minionofmidas]

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

That, in a sense, is the primary underlying definition of "conservative".

[smoltchanov]

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

That, in a sense, is the primary underlying definition of "conservative".

If so - yes. But only in that sense. I don't see any paralles between UR and, say, British Conservative party or US Repubican party..

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

UR is a pro-president party - something not unusual, France has them - but since the president (or shadow president) can be defined as "conservative" than UR is, in a way, a "conservative" party.

If/when Putin goes, UR will go with him, and whoever the new President is will try to create his own party

LD is a party of one man - Vladimir Zhirinovski.

This is called "Personalist" - there are many Personalist parties out there, including New Zealand First.

It doesn't has a sort of ideology, but a potpourri of right-wing and left-wing slogans with rather efffective messenger (him). A typical KGB-creature - mixture of far -right, far-left and nationalism is a typical set of beliefs for KGB-employee)))

This is called "Populist" - there are many Populist parties out there, including New Zealand First - however note that NZF is not far-right - I only use it as an example to show that parties such as this exist outside Russia too; and, as an example as to why we use "far right" to describe the LDPR, as parties that are Populist can be either Right-Populist, Left-Populist or Centre-Populist.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My understanding of the map:


Purple = Seem to be a local thing, probably (a) popular local official(s) friendly to Putin.
Green = I really can't explain this
Red = This is the one that I notice first, most strikingly, and, I can indeed explain. If you check the history of the Soviet Union you will see that this is the area that was most pro-communist. Being aware of Russian culture, I have my doubts that this, in the long-run, was due to any kind of left-wing base, at least, left as we know it. This area seems to be the part of Russia that truly appreciates "strong" leadership. IE my read is that they know Putin is a dictator, and, love him for it. Contrast this with the northern area of European Russia. Many of Putin's former Power bases (like Vladivostok, dangling off the bottom of the east) have been lost, but this remains. I expect that this would be the area that would swing to any new dictator should Putin get canned.

[ag]

Actually, the ideologies of the parties are:

UR - Serious unconditional support for the government
LDPR - Unconditional support for the government and circus-style clowning around
JR - Bleeding heart support for the government with a whimper
Commies - Fascism

I guess, that's about right.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Actually, the ideologies of the parties are:

UR - Serious unconditional support for the government
LDPR - Unconditional support for the government and circus-style clowning around
JR - Bleeding heart support for the government with a whimper
Commies - Fascism

I guess, that's about right.

Do leftist intellectual types even bother associating with the Communists in Russia? It strikes me that in former one party states of the left, that most support for the original ruling party comes from old-timer flag wavers with little to no support from the urban middle class.

[platypeanArchcow]

Red = This is the one that I notice first, most strikingly, and, I can indeed explain. If you check the history of the Soviet Union you will see that this is the area that was most pro-communist. Being aware of Russian culture, I have my doubts that this, in the long-run, was due to any kind of left-wing base, at least, left as we know it. This area seems to be the part of Russia that truly appreciates "strong" leadership.

Hm, so you're saying that the fault lines of the Mongol yoke are still visible on today's map?  That's a terrifying thought.

[minionofmidas]

Green = I really can't explain this

Only area in the world to be still totally dominated demographically and politically by one of Siberia's Native peoples. Why should anyone outside be able to fully comprehend and explain the place?
Of course, remarkably isolated historically, Turkic-speaking, and Lamaist. And with a hilarious nominal independence period between the wars.

[tpfkaw]

The map is actually kinda amusing, the strongest UR areas appear to be the ones that receive the most "pork."

[2952-0-0]

The map is actually kinda amusing, the strongest UR areas appear to be the ones that receive the most "pork."

Receive the most pork, or the local strongmen are sycophant to the Kremlin and need to show it?