Tory backbench revolt

[Sibboleth]

Over Europe, natch.

This whole thing (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15425256) is a little on the bizarre, but I suppose we should have a thread, if only to look at the final lists and so on.

[Boris]

Obviously it's not going to happen, but what do you think the results of said referendum would be?

[You kip if you want to...]

Obviously it's not going to happen, but what do you think the results of said referendum would be?

A victory for "renegotiate", followed by the withdrawal option, then the status quo option.

[Iosif]

This is sooooo 1980's.

[Јas]

Are there particular powers the rebels have in mind for 'repatriation'?

[You kip if you want to...]

Government wins by 483 votes to 111 - a majority of 372 - approx 86 Tory rebels.

86!?

[London Man]

That's a lot of rebels.

[You kip if you want to...]

If I was Ed Miliband, I would've whipped my MPs to vote for the motion.
240ish loyal Lab MPs + 85ish Tory rebels = real trouble for the PM

Ed Miliband clearly isn't as cynical as I am.

And again, an AV referendum for his Liberal friends, but no EU referendum for his backbenchers.

[Sibboleth]

Obviously it's not going to happen, but what do you think the results of said referendum would be?

It's hard to tell because most people don't really care; the E.U is widely disliked, but mostly in a low key kind of way. So it's hard to tell what would happen if there was actually a vote on the issue; famously in 1975 polls taken shortly before the vote showed majorities in favour of leaving the EEC, but eventually 67% of people voted to stay in.

[Beet]

If I was Ed Miliband, I would've whipped my MPs to vote for the motion.
240ish loyal Lab MPs + 85ish Tory rebels = real trouble for the PM

Ed Miliband clearly isn't as cynical as I am.

And again, an AV referendum for his Liberal friends, but no EU referendum for his backbenchers.

If this Miliband guy has any brains, he'll try his hardest to remain in opposition for the next couple of years.

[Sibboleth]

If I was Ed Miliband, I would've whipped my MPs to vote for the motion.
240ish loyal Lab MPs + 85ish Tory rebels = real trouble for the PM

Actually I think that might have been counterproductive; it's easier to turn the screws on rebels when there's something big at stake. Cameron over-reacted over this as was; had Miliband declared a three-line whip in favour of the motion, Cameron might actually hinted that the vote was a confidence matter. So less Tory rebels. Not just that, but there are a lot of vocal pro-EU voices in the PLP. Anyways, the thing is (and what I'm trying to get at, maybe) is that rebellion is habit-forming. So if you want as many Tory MPs as possible to have a record of rebellion, then...

[You kip if you want to...]

Shouldn't be surprised

[Vasall des Midas]

Time to up the pressure on Cameron. I want him gone by november 12.

If only for my planned "Don't mess with Muammar Ghaddafi" sig with his, Sarko's, and Obama's ugly mugs.

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP's been moving towards 6-7% since the vote, for what it's worth.

[Dr. Cynic]

If I was Ed Miliband, I would've whipped my MPs to vote for the motion.
240ish loyal Lab MPs + 85ish Tory rebels = real trouble for the PM

Ed Miliband clearly isn't as cynical as I am.

And again, an AV referendum for his Liberal friends, but no EU referendum for his backbenchers.

That would actually have been a tremendous strategy.

Well, of course, Cameron did give the LibDems the AV referendum, rather than full PR, knowing that it would fail.