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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012
Topic: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012 (Read 3800 times)
E: -7.23, S: -3.30
Re: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012
Reply #50 on:
October 30, 2012, 08:50:06 pm »
In RS, Ana Amélia lost supporters after she endorsed Manuela D'Avila. I think that she prefers to stay in Brasilia, although she would be very electable. If she refuses to run, retiring mayors Fetter Jr. (PP-Pelotas) and Sartori (PMDB-Caxias do Sul) can run. Fogaça can try another run too. For Senate, I believe that favourite is Beto Albuquerque (PSB). In Pelotas, if young state deputy José Antonio "Catarina" Palladini got into run-off, it would be hard.
In Paraná, I don't believe that Greca will try Senate. He failed even to get a seat at state legislature. Many say that Richa plans to force Dias out of ticket, as he had one agreement with Rubens Bueno (PPS), failed running-mate of Ducci. He can go with one member of Barros family of PP as running-mate. Senate candidate for Hoffman would be most probably former senator Osmar Dias (PDT). Ratinho Jr. (PSC) can be running-mate for all candidates as he would be a good asset and he hasn't senatorial age.
In Santa Catarina, Florianopolis' win is in a sea of defeats for Colombo's PSD. They failed to win in Joinville, Blumenau and Colombo's home city of Lages. But they won in Berger's stronghold of São José.
Alexandre Padilha, although from São Paulo, votes in Santarém, Pará. A good candidate for running-mate in São Paulo would be one of Ota couple (Congresswoman Keiko and future Town Councillor Masataka). They're parents of a guy who was killed in a kidnapping.
For Minas governorship, Aecio can offer spot to PSB to attract Campos' support or try for PSDB with Castro family (Danilo and Rodrigo-father and son), congressman Marcos Pestana and even his sister Andrea Neves. PSDB supported candidates failed to make into runoff in some cities and Aecio played role of kingmaker, supporting PMDB in Juiz de Fora and even PC do B in Betim against PT.
Re: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012
Reply #51 on:
October 31, 2012, 08:15:41 am »
Interesting comments. I actually read Ana Amelia wants to run, and many in her party were frustrated about endorsing a PC do B candidate (specially Percival Puggina, of course). I think they'll run someone because they fear getting too small here. The local PP is against a PP-PSD merger, so they'll have to make a statement here.
About Padilha, he'll move back his electoral affiliation to São Paulo this year, I guess. At least he's truly from São Paulo, unlike Ciro Gomes, lol. And the Otas could really be useful for whoever has the PSB on their side. It's probably too early to predict that, though.
Oh, and Richa is just the dumbest politician in this country right now. If he kicks Alvaro Dias out he'll lose any support he still had within his party. If he could get Osmar Dias to run in his ticket, Alvaro would probably feel ok about staying out, but it's clear Osmar will be on Hoffmann's side. Maybe Alvaro will switch parties again? I love him, but his presidential dreams are just a pipe dream he'll never realize, and I'm sure he'll have no role in Aecio's presidential ticket.
Now I'll try to move to the Northeast, keeping up with my guesstimates. Correct me whenever necessary. I'll start with your home state! =P
After 6 years in power, the PT now has many cities under their control here, basically putting ACM's control of those enclaves to an end. Of course the DEM had the 2 biggest wins in the state here, but there's nothing really new on ACM Neto and Jose Ronaldo, I guess. At least now they'll have a springboard from where they can try to rebuild, locally and nationally.
Current Governor Jaques Wagner (PT) will probably endorse his Secretary and former President of Petrobrás José Sergio Gabrielli, someone Lula likes a lot as well. Meanwhile, the DEM and the PSDB will help PMDB's Geddel Vieira Lima out. Geddel's has been on FHC's and Lula's side here, so it would be no surprise if he switched sides again. He's currently a Vice-President of Caixa Economica Federal (Brazil's fully state owned bank). Dilma wanted him to leave the job on his own because he endorsed ACM Neto against the PT candidate in Salvador, but he said he'll only leave if she fires him. But she's uncomfortable doing this, as that could make the PMDB unhappy, unless they keep the job.
I was just reading a piece of news saying many parties that currently support Wagner will split and promote their own candidates (PDT, PP, PSB and PSD, for example). This could be exactly what Geddel needs. Divide and conquer.
This will probably be a very tight race, as Wagner approvals aren't great right now.
Governor: José Sergio Gabrielli. Some names inside the party are also interested, but
Vice Governor: They'll negotiate it.
Senator: Will João Durval (PDT) run for reelection at 85? If not, maybe Jaques Wagner resigns his governor job early in 2014 to run (unless his Vice Governor Otto Alencar-PSD decides to run on his own, a situation where Wagner would have to stay in his job all the way to the end).
Governor: Geddel Vieira Lima.
Vice Governor: Someone from the DEM would be my guess right now. But their bench is so thin within the state right now...
Senator: A guess: Jutahy Junior (PSDB). If not, Antonio Imbassahy (PSDB).
PSB and PT used to be friends here. Not anymore. Governor Cid Gomes (PSB) and his brother Ciro Gomes (PSB, former Governor, Mayor of Fortaleza, Finances Minister, etc.) faced the PT on a bloody battle for Fortaleza, and won. They'll now have a rematch in 2014.
Cid Gomes cannot run for reelection. The Gomes' clan will promote the candidacy of Leonidas Cristino (PSB), former Mayor of Sobral and currently inside Dilma's cabinet as the Port Secretary. He'll be fired soon. Not only Dilma dislikes the job he's done so far (he's been conducing a complicated project of semi-privatization of the national ports), he's already been recognized as a threat to the PT in Ceará.
Meanwhile, the PT has 3 natural candidates who'll battle it out for the nomination. The favorite right now is 2-term Mayor of Fortaleza Luizianne Lins. She never had much support within his party (she's from a minority, more leftist fraction from the PT called Socialist Democracy), and never had great approval ratings, but still managed to be elected and reelected, always facing uphill battles. Despite low approval ratings, she still managed to get her candidate to a runoff in Fortaleza, and in the end her candidate nearly won. She's a proven campaigner, that will be a huge plus for her.
The other possibilities here are Senator José Pimentel (PT) and Federal Congressman José Guimarães (PT). They'd all be strong candidates in what will be a tight affair.
What will the national opposition do here I don't know. PSDB used to be strong here, but they're ridiculously weak now. If the Aecio Neves-Eduardo Campos super ticket comes to life, they'll endorse Cristino, otherwise, they might just chose to keep being crushed.
Inacio Arruda (PC do B) will be up for reelection for the Senate. He ran an awful campaign for Fortaleza this year. Anyway, he'll be coveted by both the PSB and the PT.
So Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB) wants to be president. Great for him. Things are looking excellent for him right now. But he'll have to leave the situation in his state resolved until 2014.
Maybe Eduardo Campos will promote someone from his Cabinet to the job, maybe a congressman... If the PSDB and the PSB join forces in 2014, I could see him endorsing Jaboatão Mayor Elias Gomes (PSDB) for the job, as a way to gain leverage as he negotiates with the national PSDB. I know Sergio Guerra, PSDB's national chairman, would love to be Governor, but I wouldn't count on hi,
The local PT is in a disarray. They probably wasted the 3 strongest leaders they had in the state this year: Humberto Costa, João da Costa and Mauricio Rands. This one will hurt them.
This state, as many, will be decided by alliances. One specially important will come from the PMDB. Their Senator Jarbas Vasconcellos will be up for reelection. He'll probably follow whatever the PSB does.
Incumbent Governor Marcelo Déda cannot run for reelection. He's currently undergoing treatment for a stomach cancer, and hopefully will get well soon. There'll be many interested in the job, PT wants to hold the seat, while Vice Governor Jackson Barreto and Senator Antonio Carlos Valadares will be interested as well. The opposition had a big win in Aracaju this year, so maybe this will be a pendulum swing in 2014.
This is the strongest PSDB in the region right now. Congressman Rui Palmeira (PSDB) has easily elected Mayor of Maceió, and Governor Teotônio Vilela Filho is popular and elected many mayors through the state. Vilela Filho will endorse Senator Benedito de Lira (PP), while putting a PSDB candidate for Vice Governor. He'll also run for the Senate, and try to unseat our beloved (lol) Former President Fernando Collor de Mello (PTB). The national situation is somewhat weak here, we'll see.
I don't see Ricardo Coutinho (PSB) losing this. Not even if Senator and former Governor Cassio Cunha Lima (PSDB) runs for this. The PSDB did have an important win here though, as they won Campina Grande. They also had a humiliating loss in João Pessoa, being knocked out by the PT's Luciano Cartaxo.
Rio Grande do Norte:
Rosalba Ciarlini (DEM) will have a hard time surviving what's coming after her. Their rivals will have many candidates against her. Even her Vice Governor, Robinson Faria (PSD), will probably throw her under the bus and run against her. She did have an important win in Mossoró this time out, though.
Governor Wilson Martins (PSB) can't run for reelection in 2014. That means many will come after the seat, like Elmano Férrer (PTB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), Luciano Nunes (PSDB) and Wellington Dias (PT). No one will get a huge share of the vote on the 1st round, I guess.
"Sarneyland" might be finally coming to an end. Embratur President Flávio Dino (PC do B) is now stronger after the results in São Luís, and will start his intensive campaign soon. Roseana Sarney (PMDB) can't run for reelection, and I'm unsure about Edison Lobão's (PMDB) health. Maybe Edison Lobão Filho (PMDB) will run. The Sarneys also have many Congressman allied to them, but they all come from the interior, and would run weakly in São Luís. This one will be tough for the PT, as they can't upset Dino, but can't upset the Sarneys as well. João Castelo (PSDB) could play the spoiler.
E: 2.26, S: 6.96
Re: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012
Reply #52 on:
October 31, 2012, 11:42:34 pm »
I have far too much time on my hands. The fact I know half of these people should be embarrassing.
Well, it's a shame about Beto Richa. I always had a soft spot for him. He seemed a good mayor in Curitiba and he didn't seem all too corrupt. Perhaps, but I suppose no amount of managerial aptitude can compensate for political incompetence.
Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 11:48:25 pm by Simfan34
Re: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012
Reply #53 on:
November 03, 2012, 08:00:32 pm »
So, to keep you entertained, I'll finish my recap, and later (maybe tomorrow) come up with a national recap and guesstimates for 2014.
I'll start with the North, for now:
Here the PSDB won the 2 biggest cities of the state (Belém and Ananindeua), a nice sign for Governor Simão Jatene (PSDB), who'll be up for reelection. The PSDB won 4 of the last 5 gubernatorial elections here. If they can keep their strong voting tally in the Belém metropolitan area, they'll be in good shape.
The PT held the state government from 2006 to 2010 with Ana Júlia Carepa. But a weak performance ended up dooming her reelection campaign. I don't know if her party will let her run again. Lula was considering Minister of Health Alexandre Padilha here, as he was living in Santarém-PA before taking office in Dilma's Cabinet. But now many feel he'll go back to São Paulo, so no one knows who'll be their candidate.
Another possibility is 2 term Mayor of Belém Duciomar Costa (PTB). His positives as governor were far from great, but the PTB will need some strong results in 2014 to stay alive. He might be their best chance.
Finally, don't count out Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL). A former 2 term Mayor of Belém as a PT member, he switched parties disgruntled with the PT. He was strongly voted for the State Congress in 2010, and nearly won Belém this year.
A strong PT critic, Senator Mário Couto (PSDB) will be up for reelection in 2014.
Governor Omar Aziz (PSD) can't run for reelection. That means a huge line of interested politicians will make a move for this seat. Among them, Senator Eduardo Braga (PMDB) and Congresswoman Rebecca Garcia (PP). Senator Alfredo Nascimento (PR) will probably run for reelection. Some wonder if Artur Virgilio (PSDB) will try to go back to the Senate after a landslide win in Manaus, but I think he'll stay put for now, as he'll be once again an influential figure in his party anyway after his win.
Governor Camilo Capiberibe (PSB) was elected after defeating corrupt local leaders that were arrested in the middle of the 2010 electoral process. I feel there's a sense of change here, as one of those corrupt leaders was defeated in his reelection campaign in Macapá, giving the PSOL its first State capital win. Capiberibe endorsed the PSOL's candidate, and I think he can win reelection if he keeps an image of a reformer.
PSOL's Senator Randolfe Rodrigues would be a strong candidate for the state government, but many believe he'll run for the presidency.
The most interesting think to watch here is whether former President and sitting Senator José Sarney (PMDB) will retire after over 20 years in the Senate. He fled from Maranhão to Amapá to keep his political career alive, but struggled to be reelected in 2006. He said in 2011 that both he and his daughter Roseana will retire from politics in 2014, and the rumour is still strong. If true, this will be the end of a generation.
Governor Anchieta Junior (PSDB) can't run for reelection in 2014. Local leaders will battle for the state government, with little to no intervention from national leaders, as Roraima is Brazil's most isolated and least populated State in the country, basically irrelevant for national elections. For the PSDB, it would be great if Anchieta Junior can win a Senate seat here, though.
Governor Siqueira Campos (PSDB) and Senator Katia Abreu (PSD) will be up for reelection. If they team up, they'll be very tough to beat. Katia Abreu can raise a lot of money, as she's the leader of brazilian agribusiness in the Senate.
Confúcio Moura (PMDB) will be up for reelection. Former Governor and seating Senator Ivo Cassol (PP) will be ineligible, possibly giving Moura an easy pass.
An odd state, where the PT wins local elections and the PSDB wins national elections. Tião Viana (PT) won the State in 2010, and should be reelected in 2014. The PT just elected a new Mayor in Rio Branco, a nice sign for them. The PT will have a Senate seat to defend here as well.
And now, to the Midwest.
Marconi Perillo (PSDB) has been one of the main leaders of his party for the last few years - Governor from 1999 to 2006, Senator from 2007 to 2010, and now Governor again. Unfortunately for him, he was recently involved in ethics charges, so both his political and legal future are in jeopardy. This could be an opening for local oligarch Iris Rezende (PMDB), who at 81 could become Governor for the 3rd time in his life. Even stronger could be the campaign of Paulo Garcia (PT), just reelected Mayor of Goiânia. This will be an excellent pickup opportunity for the PT. It'll be interesting to see whether Senator Cyro Miranda (PSDB) will run for reelection.
Our Federal District has the same rights states have (3 Senators, full representation in the House, its own Judiciary, etc.). However, it's also been marred by the same problems national politics have faced. Former Governor José Roberto Arruda (formerly DEM, now no party) was impeached after a huge corruption scandal was uncovered there. This was an opening to the PT, that reached the State Government with Agnelo Queiroz. Unsurprisingly, Queiroz's administration has been facing some ethics charges as well, so many are lining up for a run, even some in the national government base. Senator Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB) seems to be very interested, so this might be yet another PT x PSB battle. Joaquim Roriz (PSC) wants to run, but he might be ineligible, and even if eligible, his negatives are probably way too high now, as he used to be a corrupt politician as well. His daughter, District Congresswoman Liliane Roriz (PSD) may be a better choice.
Former Governor and current Senator Cristovam Buarque (PDT) probably wants to run for President again, but that probably won't be possible. If he can't run for President, he may convince his party to let him run for the District Government.
Finally, Senator Gim Argello (PTB) will be up for reelection. Seen as one of the most corrupt members of the Senate, many want him out. Ouch, tough times for state level politicians in Brasília...
Governor Silval Barbosa (PMDB) can't run for reelection. Former Governor and seating Senator Blairo Maggi (PR) has denied interest, but God only knows, I guess. Senator Pedro Taques (PDT) wants to run, he'd run very strongly if he's indeed a candidate. Jayme Campos (DEM) will have a hard time running for reelection for the Senate.
Mato Grosso do Sul:
Incumbent Governor André Puccinelli (PMDB) can't run for reelection. His candidate will be Nelson Trad Filho, known as Nelsinho Trad (PMDB). A 2 term Mayor of Campo Grande, and a member of a local dynasty, he'll be a strong candidate. His main opponent will be strong as well. His name is Delcídio Amaral (PT) and he's currently a leading PT Senator. PMDB and PT have consistently battled for this state over the last few years, and this seemed to be a 2 way race as well until this year elections. A strong performance by Reinaldo Azambuja (PSDB) makes him a possible spoiler, as he's considering whether to run for the State Government or for the Senate right now.
It's unknown who'll be endorsed by just elected Mayor of Campo Grande Alcides Bernal (PP), as both the PT and the PSDB endorsed him in a runoff against Puccinelli's candidate.
It's also unknown whether incumbent Vice Governor Simone Tebet (PMDB, also from a local dynasty) will run for the Senate in 2014. Puccinelli also says he's got plans for Edison Giroto, his failed candidate for Campo Grande. Puccinelli says he'll retire from politics in 2014, but he might just run for the Senate or for the Congress, trying to delay criminal prosecutions he may face after 2014.
Last Edit: November 03, 2012, 08:07:10 pm by Paleobrazilian
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