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| | |-+  Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)
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Author Topic: Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)  (Read 41377 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #300 on: February 17, 2012, 01:28:44 pm »
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No. This is a 3-way race which anyone can win. Potentially the seat winner isn't the popular vote winner (as in '66). All the Indies look headed to defeat. If any survive, it will be either Lapointe, Curzi or Beaudoin.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
MaxQue
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« Reply #301 on: February 17, 2012, 01:33:16 pm »
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McKay said on his Twitter on February 11 than he will run in Repentigny.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #302 on: February 20, 2012, 01:55:02 pm »
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If Charest wins again, he'll join Gouin, Taschereau, Duplessis and Bourassa in the four-term club. Though they all won majorities... so he'll be forever a noob there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/charest-is-still-the-man-go-figure/article2342454/

Charest fishing for left-wing votes is a first.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343182/patients-diriges-vers-le-prive-bolduc-en-saisit-le-college-des-medecins

Yawn.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343180/droits-de-scolarite-plus-de-30-000-etudiants-sont-en-greve

If she does that she'll blow her nascent recovery.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/19/01-4497511-marois-veut-remettre-la-souverainete-a-lavant-plan.php
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
MaxQue
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« Reply #303 on: February 20, 2012, 07:02:06 pm »
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You know, if that annoy Gaétan Barrette, I'm totally for that.
I can't stand the man, and honestly, a doctor that obese isn't healthy and isn't a good example to his patients.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #304 on: February 20, 2012, 07:11:11 pm »
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I agree with you on Barrette, if not the policy. Everyone knows the CHA has been dead in all but name for eons. Heck, even Peggy Nash admitted as much a couple of weeks ago. Why Charest is making a tactical ploy to her left is beyond me.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #305 on: February 21, 2012, 11:40:18 am »
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Charest has missed his window. The earliest dissolution by his own timetable would be immediately after the budget passes. I for one am eager for these hearings to start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-dans-la-construction/201202/21/01-4498212-la-commission-charbonneau-tiendra-une-premiere-seance-en-mai.php

Did anyone else figure Bachand for a Turner-like figure?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/21/01-4498107-vie-privee-apres-toews-bachand.php

Good. We should start building nuke plants again, albeit properly.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/environnement/201202/20/01-4497987-la-ministre-boulet-veut-renover-gentilly-2.php

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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #306 on: February 22, 2012, 08:38:27 pm »
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I just read that articule! ok Quebec is just becoming rediculous... i'm, going to move in with my sister and start my own party now Tongue

... i still think there is some, some serious chatter from some in the NDP about setting up a NPDQ... which would mean 9 parties... Quebec really is looking like europe now, very dutch looking.
I know this scenario seems rediculous; no party with more than 20seats, and most not won by more than 20% either... but could spell the end to FPTP in Quebec.
... i would be very excited to see QS and the Greens with over 10 seats Tongue
At least an NPDQ would join the CAQ in being the only two parties that aren't all based around the sovereignty issue.  And it would be a much needed to fill the gap on the left because this is how the parties line up on issues besides sovereignty.
PLQ: Center to center-right
PQ: formerly center-left/social democratic, now basically centrist/neoliberal
CAQ: Center-right
PCQ: Right wing
QS: left to far left/socialist
PVQ: Center-left (but little chance of gaining seats w/ FPTP and so many parties.

Wow, getting pretty crowded on the center and right wing there.   
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-7.61 Economic
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #307 on: February 22, 2012, 09:14:57 pm »
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PQ is still centre-left.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
MaxQue
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« Reply #308 on: February 22, 2012, 09:16:52 pm »
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PCQ is totally irrelevent.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #309 on: February 22, 2012, 09:56:17 pm »
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PCQ is totally irrelevent.

Agreed. Legault could also be marginalized because he has great difficulty communicating in either official language, and Charest is, as Ian MacDonald never fails to remind us, the best retailer of his generation.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #310 on: February 23, 2012, 11:00:17 am »
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Leger: PQ 30, PLQ 29, CAQ 26, QS 8.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/22/01-4498820-marois-rebondit.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
MaxQue
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« Reply #311 on: February 23, 2012, 01:04:08 pm »
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The trend is clear. PQ raises, CAQ slides, Liberals are very stable (which is normal, they only have their core vote, at that point).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #312 on: February 23, 2012, 01:11:41 pm »
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What should alarm Liberals the most is that they have less than 20% of Francophone voters. PQ is drawing votes from the CAQ and QS, but IMO the winner will need 35-37% PV to form governmnet.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #313 on: February 26, 2012, 08:08:55 pm »
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QS unveils some candidates.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499935-quebec-solidaire-devoile-16-candidats.php

If there was a window, he missed it.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/25/01-4499714-la-vitesse-un-gros-risque-pour-charest.php

I'd expect he'll dissolve shortly after the budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499893-rumeurs-delections-lopposition-sactive.php
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
MaxQue
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« Reply #314 on: March 01, 2012, 02:00:41 am »
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A Forum Research poll from last week.

PQ: 39%
PLQ: 30%
CAQ: 19%

Probably an outlier.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #315 on: March 01, 2012, 12:52:55 pm »
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Definitely an outlier.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Smid
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« Reply #316 on: March 02, 2012, 01:13:14 am »
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Finished the Quebec Map including Montreal and Quebec City insets.



Slight edit to tidy up the Nelligan/Robert-Baldwin riding boundary , just south of Fabre on the Southern Quebec Inset. Also removed a couple of rogue pixels in Labelle.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2012, 02:03:34 am by Smid »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #317 on: March 04, 2012, 07:07:08 pm »
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Lapointe is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/04/004-retrait-politique-lisette-lapointe.shtml


As is LeMay, but Marois snagged a star candidate in St. Marie-St. Jacques.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344263/circonscription-pequiste-de-sainte-marie-saint-jacques-lemay-part-breton-arrive
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 07:13:20 pm by RogueBeaver »Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #318 on: March 06, 2012, 12:37:16 pm »
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Won't go anywhere, but might stir up a language battle.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/national/201203/06/01-4502973-huntingdon-conteste-la-loi-101-une-politique-raciste.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

Dissolution in early May?

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/06/002-budget-provincial-raymond-bachand-annonce-date-depot.shtml
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #319 on: March 06, 2012, 03:43:22 pm »
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Budget comes down 2 weeks from today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/06/01-4503024-budget-bachand-le-20-mars.php
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Smid
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« Reply #320 on: March 06, 2012, 07:22:46 pm »
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Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 07:30:31 pm by Smid »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #321 on: March 06, 2012, 07:26:54 pm »
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You'll have at least 6 weeks, if not more. I wouldn't expect dissolution before late April at the earliest.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Hatman
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« Reply #322 on: March 06, 2012, 11:46:21 pm »
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I'd rather have the notional results for Alberta at this point.
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Smid
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« Reply #323 on: March 07, 2012, 03:27:03 am »
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I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #324 on: March 07, 2012, 08:02:26 am »
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Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties. 
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