Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)
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Author Topic: Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)  (Read 142807 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #50 on: November 09, 2011, 07:05:48 PM »

Could this proposal of an ADQ-CAQ merger help the ADQ in the by-election?

ADQ got less than 5% in 2008. Normandeau won 64-30, and that figure should be the benchmark. If the PQ dips below 25 (this is a seat that except for 1994-8, has been Grit since the '50s) then Marois' troubles grow exponentially.

On another subject, it's a very mild start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/09/01-4466239-les-elus-veulent-moderniser-la-loi-antigreve.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #51 on: November 09, 2011, 07:08:50 PM »

Charbonneau gets her full powers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201111/09/01-4466190-charbonneau-aura-tous-les-pouvoirs-prevus-par-la-loi.php
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Smid
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« Reply #52 on: November 14, 2011, 02:27:32 AM »
« Edited: November 17, 2011, 08:43:49 PM by Smid »

Done in a bit of a rush, so there could be a few errors, but I think these are the results of the last election:

2008 Quebec Election Results Map




Of course, there's a bigger version in the gallery.

Edit: I've added some extra detail in the Eastern part of the Southern Quebec Inset, so it now stretches the width of the page. Doesn't add any extra ridings or anything, it's purely for the aesthetics.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #53 on: November 14, 2011, 09:32:43 PM »

Heh. Are you familiar with the Quebec-Labrador boundary dispute?
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: November 14, 2011, 09:50:05 PM »

Heh. Are you familiar with the Quebec-Labrador boundary dispute?

I read up on it a little while working on the map. Apparently it was "settled" during the 1920s(?), prior to Newfoundland & Labrador joining Canada, so was therefore a boundary dispute between Canada and N&L and was taken to the Privy Council in London for a decision, since both were part of the Commonwealth (I think both were classed "Dominions" - don't know if that word is still in use - N&L was certianly one, not sure about Canada).

The dispute revolved around the definition of "The Coasts of Labrador" - apparently Newfoundland in an earlier agreement/declaration was given "The Coasts of Labrador" and the debate was something to do with whether they were entitled to land 1 mile from the ocean, or 1 mile in altitude? Something like that, although 1 mile in altitude is pretty high, so I could be wrong... Quebec never accepted the ruling by the Privy Council.

Anyway, the solid line is the boundary as shown on the redistribution maps put out by Commission de la representation electorale du Quebec (including the recent ones), and the dotted line is the boundary recognised by the Canadian Government, etc. I gave a bit of thought as to how to proceed with the map, given the disputed boundary, and thought that using solid and dashed lines was probably the best way of showing the riding.

Actually, here's Wikipedia's write-up on the dispute.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: November 14, 2011, 09:57:55 PM »

AFAIK not a single person lives there. I'm tempted to, if I win the lotto, move there just so I can vote in both Quebec and NL elections.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: November 15, 2011, 02:22:15 AM »
« Edited: November 17, 2011, 08:45:08 PM by Smid »

In case people are interested (as always, bigger versions in the gallery):

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - Liberal Vote




2008 Quebec Election Results Map - PQ Vote




2008 Quebec Election Results Map - ADQ Vote

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lilTommy
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« Reply #57 on: November 17, 2011, 09:49:31 AM »

Smid, can we see a QS vote map... the most recent Polls had them about 3-4times higher then in 2008 (3%, now roughly 9-12%) Teddy has them winning 4 seats.

Teddy, can you do a NPDQ map? i would be really interested to see where they pick up on a provincial level.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: November 17, 2011, 08:11:53 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2011, 08:46:38 PM by Smid »

Smid, can we see a QS vote map... the most recent Polls had them about 3-4times higher then in 2008 (3%, now roughly 9-12%) Teddy has them winning 4 seats.

Teddy, can you do a NPDQ map? i would be really interested to see where they pick up on a provincial level.

Note that there are only a half-dozen ridings in which QS received >10% of the vote:

Outremont (11.43%)
Hochelaga - Maisonneuve (12.93%)
Laurier - Dorion (13.01%)
Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques (15.4%)
Gouin (31.85%)
Mercier (37.89%)

Additionally, there were three ridings in which QS did not field a candidate - Abitibi-Ouest, Gatineau and Notre-Dame-de-Grace.

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - QS Vote




Bigger version, of course, is in the gallery.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #59 on: November 17, 2011, 08:20:39 PM »

Uh, there was no QS candidate in Gatineau.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #60 on: November 17, 2011, 08:21:20 PM »

Lapointe (Mme Parizeau for non-Quebecers) joins the Option Nationale splinter group. Someone (IIRC it was Hebert) wrote recently that in retrospect, the PQ crisis dates to 2007 when QS was formed. Two splinter groups: one that thinks the PQ is insufficiently leftist, another which thinks they're insufficiently separatist. For the first time since the 1960s, their movement is Balkanized.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/17/01-4468945-lisette-lapointe-adhere-a-option-nationale.php
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #61 on: November 17, 2011, 08:24:29 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2011, 08:29:57 PM by Smid »

Uh, there was no QS candidate in Gatineau.

You are entirely correct. I have a glitch somewhere in my spreadsheet. I'm going to have to look into it closely - and it probably affects some of those other ridings and party support maps, too.

Edit: Found the problem - hadn't left the Gatineau cell blank (as Hashemite rightly points out) and then everything else below there (in the NDP column) has bumped up a row, which explains why Gouin is so low, compared to other seats adjoining it. It shouldn't take too long to fix the spreadsheet, but it will take a while to fix the maps. My apologies, everyone.

Edit 2: Not as bad as I thought, looks like it's only affected three cells or so, just down to Groulx, where QS actually did run a candidate.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #62 on: November 17, 2011, 08:34:30 PM »

Gouin was one of their two targets. Françoise David, one of their co-leaders stood there (and will again stood there next election).

No candidate in NdG because it was the best result of the Green Party in 2007.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: November 17, 2011, 08:48:17 PM »

All fixed and updated. I think it should all be correct now. Let me know if you spot any more mistakes, but I think it's now right.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #64 on: November 17, 2011, 08:50:35 PM »

From those maps, their vote look very urban.

It even highlight where cities are in rural areas.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #65 on: November 17, 2011, 09:01:15 PM »

Lapointe (Mme Parizeau for non-Quebecers) joins the Option Nationale splinter group. Someone (IIRC it was Hebert) wrote recently that in retrospect, the PQ crisis dates to 2007 when QS was formed. Two splinter groups: one that thinks the PQ is insufficiently leftist, another which thinks they're insufficiently separatist. For the first time since the 1960s, their movement is Balkanized.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/17/01-4468945-lisette-lapointe-adhere-a-option-nationale.php

Thanks for the update; if you know of any other such updates, keep us informed!
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MaxQue
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« Reply #66 on: November 18, 2011, 01:11:49 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2011, 01:17:12 AM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Last week, a Segma/Le Soleil poll of the by-election in Bonaventure was published (401 persons, ±4,9%).

Damien Arsenault (PLQ): 52%
Sylvain Roy (PQ): 36%
Patricia Chartier (QS): 6%
George Painchaud (ADQ): 5%

Note than there is also a Green running and than people have until Saturday to fill a candidature form.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #67 on: November 18, 2011, 08:26:43 PM »

The CAQ has a commanding lead in the polls, although surely they'll fall quite a bit, right?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #68 on: November 18, 2011, 08:46:52 PM »

The CAQ has a commanding lead in the polls, although surely they'll fall quite a bit, right?

Anything can happen over the next year. The parallel for your scenario would be the rise and fall of the ADQ in 2007-8. Also rumours of another caucus revolt were shot down by Marois today.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336361/parti-quebecois-pauline-marois-doit-encore-reaffirmer-la-loyaute-de-son-caucus

To distract, Marois is now pushing for an all-party consensus to hand over Quebec's federal UI payments to provincial coffers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/18/01-4469460-marois-veut-une-coalition-pour-le-rapatriement-de-lassurance-emploi.php
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #69 on: November 21, 2011, 04:55:13 PM »

New poll confirms what I suspected: change for change's sake is still in the air. Here's the full poll.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336595/sondage-leger-marketing-le-devoir-legault-sur-les-traces-du-npd

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage21nov.pdf

Bonaventure won't boost either Charest or Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/will-by-election-boost-charest-before-battle-with-legault-begins-in-earnest/article2243371/

Too good to be true: PQ is actually launching that pro-Marois ad campaign. Good luck at humanizing la reine d'Ile Bizard.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336606/le-pq-lance-sa-campagne-de-publicite

Key takeaways from that poll.

General: CAQ 35, PLQ 22, PQ 21, ADQ/QS 8.

Francophones: 40/24/14, with the PLQ in last. Those are wipeout numbers.

Anglo/Allos: PLQ 57, CAQ 12, PV 9, ADQ 8. If they merge, then some West Island Pelquistes might be in for a long night.

Montreal: 34/22/21, same order as the Francophone numbers.

Quebec City: 29/24/22.

ROQ: 36/22/19.

Reason why most non-Caquistes don't trust them: vague platitudes as their platform. Legault also leads PMP. PQ leads on defending Quebec's interests and language, otherwise CAQ leads all issue-trust indicators.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #70 on: November 24, 2011, 12:33:10 PM »

Pauline is going insane.

She expelled an MNA on Tuesday for perhaps being a mole.
She expelled another MNA on Thursday for thinking to join another party.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #71 on: November 24, 2011, 01:07:46 PM »

Pauline is going insane.

She expelled an MNA on Tuesday for perhaps being a mole.
She expelled another MNA on Thursday for thinking to join another party.

A mole? What? As for the other guy, she should've done a de facto rather than de jure expulstion: i.e. "you have x days to decide your political affilation (and barred from caucus meetings till then), if you want to stay stay, otherwise leave." But yeah, I'm seeing parallels to Carole James already. Can you get a link to the "mole" guy? Can't find it on either La Presse or Le Devoir.
 

CAQ link.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336840/courtise-par-la-caq-daniel-ratthe-est-expulse-du-caucus-pequiste

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #72 on: November 24, 2011, 01:32:36 PM »

Pauline is going insane.

She expelled an MNA on Tuesday for perhaps being a mole.
She expelled another MNA on Thursday for thinking to join another party.

Remarkable. A mole? Really? Is the Tinker Tailor film out in Canada yet?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #73 on: November 24, 2011, 01:46:21 PM »

Which is the second MNA?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #74 on: November 24, 2011, 02:35:49 PM »


Her most recent victims are Guy Leclair (le mole) MNA for Beauharnois and Daniel Ratthe MNA for Blainville... She is running out of MNA's to screw with Tongue
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