Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[lilTommy]

The PLQ has been centre-left/centrist since the late '30s. Before that they were classical liberals. Remember who nationalized a whole bunch of stuff in the '60s and created Quebec's Medicare program... not the PQ.

Now-a-days centrist at best
... to your point, yup those were changes brought by the Lesage liberals... but the cabinest minister was Rene Levesque... It was the 60s after all, those changes were being made all over the country and back then the PLQ were centre-left. Also a huge reformist mood/gov't that probably liked the idea of tearing apart Duplessis's quebec

[Rhodie]

Why in Quebec do the Conservatives and NDP not run candidates?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing of provincial politics in Quebec as being like Scottish politics, but inverted in one very important aspect. Then the PLQ makes sense.

[lilTommy]

Why in Quebec do the Conservatives and NDP not run candidates?

The short answer is, its Quebec

I think its a much more complex and complicated answer someone from Quebec might know. Also there is a Parti Conservateur (eek conjugation?) thats running this time around no?
http://www.particonservateurquebec.org/

... but i've been itching for a return of a NPDQ in some form... which there was one back in the 80-90's i believe (actually led by Henri-Francois Gendron who is a PLQ MNA currently)

[Velasco]

I am pretty ignorant about politics in Quebec, but I always wondered why the provincial Liberals considered that the former conservative leader would be their saviour.

[lilTommy]

well we first have to remember that no Provincial Liberal party anywhere is officially connected to the Liberal Party of Canada

Well in 2003 Charest was their saviour, and has kept them in power for almost 10yrs so he hasn't failed them yet... Charest is not your current "Conservative" hes a former Progressive Conservative; much more moderate socially and fiscally then the current Harper Conservatives.

[MaxQue]

Why in Quebec do the Conservatives and NDP not run candidates?

Because the federal and provincial parties are separate and different.
There is no official link between federal and provincial Liberals since the 60's.
The provincial Liberal leader is a former Conservative federal leader.

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

[MaxQue]

A Forum poll for the National Trash Post, is saying PQ 34 PLQ 32, CAQ 24.

[Velasco]

well we first have to remember that no Provincial Liberal party anywhere is officially connected to the Liberal Party of Canada

Well in 2003 Charest was their saviour, and has kept them in power for almost 10yrs so he hasn't failed them yet... Charest is not your current "Conservative" hes a former Progressive Conservative; much more moderate socially and fiscally then the current Harper Conservatives.

Thanks for the explanation. I knew that the present-day Cons are more right-wing than the old PC, also that QLP and Canadian Liberals are separate parties. Anyways I didn't know that the two liberal parties were so disconnected. For what I'm reading here I don't know even which is the ideology of the Liberal Party of Canada nowadays. Charest's solution worked well for the QLP, it's true, but still it sounds a bit strange for a foreigner like me. 

[DL]

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

Gautrin was never involved with any provincial wing of the NDP in Quebec...he was the leader of the Quebec section of the federal NDP back in the 70s when Lewis and then Broadbent were leaders.

[MaxQue]

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

Gautrin was never involved with any provincial wing of the NDP in Quebec...he was the leader of the Quebec section of the federal NDP back in the 70s when Lewis and then Broadbent were leaders.

If my memory is right, the Quebec section was the provincial wing, then.

[You kip if you want to...]

Why hasn't the NDP created a Quebecois provincial party for the National Assembly?

[MaxQue]

Why hasn't the NDP created a Quebecois provincial party for the National Assembly?

They did two times, both times it was took over by nationalists.
And right now, it would only strenghten the right by dividing the left again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Breaking down the FR poll (change is from 2008 election; CAQ change is from ADQ)

Montreal area
PQ 34 (-2)
PLQ 33 (-11)
CAQ 22 (+11)
QS 7 (+2)
Oth 3 (-1)

Quebec City area
CAQ 37 (+8)
PLQ 35 (-4)
PQ 22 (-5)
QS 3 (n/c)
Oth 2 (+1)

North shore
PQ 36 (-5)
PLQ 34 (-7)
CAQ 21 (+7)
QS 5 (+2)
Oth 3 (+1)

South shore
PQ 39 (+5)  whoa
PLQ 28 (-13)
CAQ 24 (+3)
QS 6 (+3)
Oth 2 (n/c)

[RogueBeaver]

CROP: PQ majority were an election held today. PQ 32, PLQ 29, CAQ 21. Among Francophones: PQ 38, PLQ 25, PLQ (!) 18.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/09/01-4563845-une-majorite-a-la-portee-du-pq.php

Charest's approvals in the gutter.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/10/01-4563865-sondage-letoile-de-jean-charest-a-pali.php

Charest could get thumped in his own riding.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/10/01-4563869-sondage-jean-charest-loin-derriere-dans-sherbrooke.php?

PQ joins in on the economic nationalist bandwagon.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356510/le-pq-veut-proteger-les-entreprises-quebecoises

Leger: PQ minority. PQ 32, PLQ 31, CAQ 27. Lots of crosstabs in this one.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356526/la-caq-gagne-six-points-et-brouille-les-cartes

[Rhodie]

I'm of a mind (as I know much more about Canadian politics at a federal level) that Charest would fit in well with the PLQ, as from what I've heard they sound pretty centrist, and that the basic strategy of the old PC Party was to desperately try and outbid and ape the Liberals, until this strategy finally collapsed in on them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll break downs (change fro 2008 election)

Montreal Island ("the 514")
PLQ: 40 (-12)
PQ: 25 (-5)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
QS: 12 (+5)
Oth: 9 (+4)

Montreal suburbs ("the 450")
CAQ: 34 (+19) (holy smokes!)
PQ: 32 (-9)
PLQ: 29 (-9)
QS: 3 (n/c)
Oth: 2 (-1)

Quebec City RMR
CAQ: 37 (+8)
PLQ: 27 (-12)
PQ: 24 (-3)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 8 (+7)

ROQ
PQ: 38 (+1)
PLQ: 28 (-13)
CAQ: 27 (+9)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 4 (+2)

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP has more ambiguous breakdowns, so I'll just do the 514:

PLQ: 37 (-16)
PQ: 24 (-6)
QS: 15 (+8)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
Oth: 5 (n/c)

[RogueBeaver]

Too Close to Call plugs in the CROP numbers and gets PQ 68, PLQ 43, CAQ 14, QS 1.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/10-aout-2012-sondage-crop-la-presse.html

Hebert: Liberals stalling.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1240373--hebert-quebec-election-2012-momentum-eludes-jean-charest-and-his-liberals

[RogueBeaver]

PQ: New Charte in first 100 days.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/12/01-4564420-une-nouvelle-loi-101-dans-les-trois-premiers-mois-promet-le-pq.php

Marois blasts Barrette.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/11/01-4564354-un-ministre-de-la-sante-doit-avoir-de-saines-habitudes-de-vie-dit-marois.php

Charest: lack of demonstrations helps the Grits. Not really.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356627/l-absence-de-manifestations-et-de-violence-profitera-au-plq-selon-charest

Extracts of an upcoming Marois profile.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/pauline-marois-letoffe-dun-premier-ministre

[Hatman 🍁]

Teaser! My next prediction will show the following:

PQ: 57
PLQ: 45
CAQ: 17
QS: 2
Ties: 4 (2 PQ-CAQ; 1 PLQ-PQ; 1 PLQ-CAQ)

So, a PQ minority

[RogueBeaver]

I think things will remain relatively static till the debates. Then the needle starts moving.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/08/quebec-2012-election-prediction-map_13.html

[Smid]

I like the shade of blue you've used for CAQ - it differentiates quite nicely from the Aqua/Teal/bluey-green of the PQ.

EDIT: I hope you don't mind - I copied your blue colour scheme into my "shading tones" file, where I keep all those colour schemes in the one handy place.

[RogueBeaver]

I bought L'actualite and read the whole profile. Interesting but essentially confirmed my longstanding impression of Marois: an administrator who wants to govern the province. Not a revolutionary or firebrand by any means.

Fun fact: Duceppe wasn't the only one who wanted her job, which complicated his ambition a bit.