Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[DL]

We're not even halfway through the campaign. Plus the debates starting Sunday. That's Charest's best and probably last chance to go on offense.

Of course anything can happen and its early. I'm just going out on a limb and saying what I think will end up happening. My impression is that there are two kinds of people in Quebec - 1) people who hate Charest and would rather have red hot needles inserted in their eye balls than vote for him - those people are all already voting PQ or CAQ or for a minor party and 2) people who think Charest is the worst Premier in the history of the province but are willing to hold their nose and vote for him because they don't want the PQ to come and in start playing referendum politics. There is literally NO ONE outside of the Quebec Liberal caucus and (I presume) Charest immediate family - who actually think Charest is a good premier. I think Quebecers have made up their minds about Jean Charest and now its just a question of whether there will be stampede by what's left of Liberal voters to the CAQ to stop the PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

We're in agreement here. TBH this is looking a bit like '76 but with a much lower leadership quality on both sides. CAQ is providing a safe haven for disaffected Liberals like the UN did then. Regardless of what happens the PLQ will probably have its worst electoral result since the Duplessis era.

[MaxQue]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

So potential trargets would be NDG, Gouin, Hull, Chapleau... i'd also include Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques, Laurier-Dorion (current QS targets; both left one very urban, very Trinity-Spadina; the other more ethnically mixed, poorer). I'd also say it might be worth to look at some Northern ridings like the Abitibi's, Ungava... they could be worth an effort. The only time the CCf won was when they won Royn-Noranda (correct me if i'm wrong)

Rouyn-Noranda and Ungava are perhaps worth it, the 2 Abitibi aren't (one is very rural and agricultural, the other has plenty of high paying jobs based on mining and who are afraid of hurting mining industry and liberal professions).

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers, you're getting your wish... in 2016.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/mulcair-says-ndp-will-run-quebec-party-in-time-for-the-provincial-next-election-166568356.html

[Holmes]

It would take that long, maybe even longer to get a respectable showing.

[MaxQue]

http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages.html

They are the one who did Sherbrooke and Granby.
They apparently polled the 5 Sagnenay-Lac-Saint-Jean ridings.

So, since they contain all the results for all parties:

Sherbrooke:
PQ 46, PLQ-Charest 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, ON 2, Green 2

Granby:
CAQ-incumbent 49, PQ 24, PLQ 16, QS 7, Green 3, ON 1

Lac-Saint-Jean:
PQ-incumbent 59, CAQ 18, PLQ 17, QS 3, Green 1, ON 1

Chicoutimi:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 21, CAQ 19, QS 5, ON 1

Dubuc:
PQ 44, PLQ-incumbent 32, CAQ 18, QS 4, ON 1

Roberval:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 26, CAQ 14, QS 5

Jonquière:
PQ-incumbent 51, PLQ 20, CAQ 17, QS 6, Green 2, ON 1

[Hatman 🍁]

I have been underestimating the PQ up there by 5-10%. Then again the PQ have made some gains overall since my last projection.

[adma]

Still, I can't imagine the PQ that high and the ADQ that low as per the predictions.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest: I'll be targeted at debate time. Reminder: tomorrow night's is 8-10 PM on Radio-Canada. (Yes, there's livestreaming)

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566185-debats-je-vais-etre-la-cible-dit-charest.php

Charest interview.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566157-jean-charest-se-confie-sa-campagne-ses-motivations-sa-famille.php

David interview.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566172-101-questions-avec-francoise-david.php

Municipal police want more $$$.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566207-les-policiers-municipaux-demandent-un-meilleur-financement.php?

PQ bill comes to $1 billion. Liberal is 1.2 IIRC. Forget "balanced budget" for the foreseeable future.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357148/marois-fera-pour-1-milliard-de-promesses

Debate strategies.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357178/de-durs-defis-attendent-les-chefs

[Peter the Lefty]

Seems like QS has been slumping a lot lately in the polls to about 5-7%.  Any reason why, or is it just that their supporters want to get Charest out so bad that they're flocking to the PQ?  Or are the federalists flocking to the UCQ?  Or a combination of both?

[RogueBeaver]

Realistically QS is hoping that Francoise David gets elected in Gouin and Amir Khadir re-elected in Mercier. So PV fluctuations aren't a huge deal.

Too Close To Call (TCTC) has their final pre-debate poll snapshot, this one averaging CROP and Leger.



And for those of you who want a detailed seat breakdown.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9hKZEGlI3lXZ3hrRldjY0VGVEU/view?sle=true

[Hash]

Debate was last night. As expected, all 3 major leaders proved that they were incompetent douches.

Most observers and even most politicians concede that David either won outright or had a very strong debate performance, for her first debate. She was relevant, focused, clear, concise and actually on topic. Even if I don't agree with her on everything, she clearly stood up for what she believed in. As far as I'm concerned, she's the only leader who didn't turn in a self-parody at all. I certainly hope that she'll win her own race, because she proved that she was a far more capable and intelligent leader than any of the other three. I mean, she actually answered questions with more than talking points and managed to stay on topic. She wasn't aggressive towards anybody, but still held her ground remarkably well.

Legault had a decent performance, and had a really straight-talking populist style, which, even if I personally hate this kind of persona in a politician, could probably appeal to certain voters. He was attacked many of being a flip-flopper (on independence) or unclear, but he managed to defend himself well. He got stuck into his talking points pretty often and turned into a self-parody pretty quickly as far as I'm concerned, as he rehashed lines like "we need to CLEAN UP" or getting a family doctor for every Quebecker. He was pretty funny and talked like everybody's slightly crazy old uncle. I guess he needs credit for a Giscardian line: "vous n'avez pas le monopole de l'amour du Quebec" to Marois.

Marois started off as a plastic figure or somebody trying to audition for a role in a drama production, but she had a fairly good debate on the whole, though it will probably not boost her standing. She held her ground, at least. She was weak on corruption issues, because Charest rehashed some old report about PQ corruption a lot and she didn't respond very well. Her message was generally clear, and steered clear of damaging attacks while throwing a few good jabs in Legault and Charest's way. Her ideas were still awful and she still acted like a plastic figure for a good part of the debate, sticking to old talking points/bullsh**t lines.

Charest had his usual smugness and arrogance throughout the debate. I don't think he lost the debate, but he didn't win it either. For a lot of the time, he took the appearance of the top student in the class who rehashed numbers about his record, even if the others attacked his record pretty well (especially Legault on the economy). He had a tendency to attack the PQ government from 9 years ago, which is ridiculous (even if some of his stuff, like PQ cuts in healthcare, had merit). His main shtick was certainly bringing up that old commission which found the PQ guilty of some corruption/illegal financing back when they were in power; I don't know if that'll stick. I think it can safely be said that this debate wasn't a game changer in a positive direction for him. He wasn't as talking point-ish as Legault or Marois, but still turned into a self-parody and used a good number of bullsh**t lines/talking points.

The result is that Quebec is still screwed whoever of the three dunces win.

[lilTommy]

Thanks for the recap; i tried to watch the debate last night but CBCnw had it dubed (onviously) but i can't handle that.. and the RadioCanada said it was broadcasting it but instead showed Grand Rire... whatever.
I'm glad to see David performer well, she really was just excited and happy to be there and i think it showed, except whoever did her make-up and wardrobe should be shot, both were unflattering... but thats just my superficial remark

The QS number you need to pay attention to are not the province wide ones, but the MTL ones. The last polls i saw on the island had QS at 9% and 12% (if someone has a more updated number that be great) their only "real" shots are there... SmSj is a target IF they are lucky and well all the ridings they are targeting are held by the PQ so, Gouin is their focus and after the debate that should help David.

For the NPDQ what would help is if they had MNAs cross over and sit but that probably won't happen unless the party makes huge concession to say Khadir and David (for the NPDQ to survive i think QS has to die-off)

[RogueBeaver]

I'm with Hash here: despite disagreeing with David I found her by far the most likeable of the 4.

[Poirot]

I think the leaders all did a good job for their supporters.

I think it's risky for the NDP to have a provincial wing. It could create friction with other provincial parties and then ask for their vote on the federal level. It could mostly serve as an alternative for the non-francophone voters who feel hostage to LPQ.

[lilTommy]

I think the leaders all did a good job for their supporters.

I think it's risky for the NDP to have a provincial wing. It could create friction with other provincial parties and then ask for their vote on the federal level. It could mostly serve as an alternative for the non-francophone voters who feel hostage to LPQ.

friction? how so? each prov wing as it is now is pretty independant other then the federal ties, thats the "tie that binds" so to speak

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/story/2012/08/20/quebec-votes-anglophone-voter-turnout-ridings.html

VERY bad news for Charest; if his core supporters (anglos, west island, minorities) don't vote... CAQ or even the PQ could snap up some of these ridings. Could we see an 89' repeat? I know their is no Anglo-centic party this time so that could limit the loss; but if there is such a low turnout that could mean squeaker wins for another party other then the PLQ

[canadian1]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/story/2012/08/20/quebec-votes-anglophone-voter-turnout-ridings.html

VERY bad news for Charest; if his core supporters (anglos, west island, minorities) don't vote... CAQ or even the PQ could snap up some of these ridings. Could we see an 89' repeat? I know their is no Anglo-centic party this time so that could limit the loss; but if there is such a low turnout that could mean squeaker wins for another party other then the PLQ

That's not news; those are voter turnout statistics from the last election. The only thing that article says about this election is that anglo voter turnout may be higher.

The very reason those "core supporters" didn't vote in the past is because their votes didn't make a difference. Charest won those ridings easily without them, since plenty of other anglos/minorities did bother to vote. The notion that the PQ could win seats on the West Island is ludicrous.

Charest is essentially a dead man walking, but not on the West Island, and voter turnout statistics from 2008 aren't helpful information.

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone say "base ploy?" Not that I believe Legault's position on independence has changed- quite the contrary.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566906-charest-soupconne-legault-de-vouloir-declencher-un-referendum.php

Words fail me and I don't want to be infracted, so I'll let this speak for itself.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566965-projet-de-citoyennete-quebecoise-marois-propose-des-regles-plus-strictes.php

Duscheneau throws out more accusations. Weil's my MNA, BTW.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566868-duchesneau-denonce-le-laxisme-du-bureau-de-la-ministre-weil.php


Wrap-up of last night's debate. Tonight's is Charest/Legault.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357350/le-choc-de-visions-totalement-differentes


TCTC says there'll be a new Forum poll out tomorrow with a PLQ lead. WTF moment.




Riding polls out for Trois-Rivieres and Nicolet-Becancour.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/elections-quebec-2012/201208/20/01-4566408-djemila-benhabib-en-tete-dans-trois-rivieres.php

[RogueBeaver]

Senior Liberal fundraiser calls for a strategic CAQ vote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/quebec-liberal-fundraiser-calls-on-party-faithful-to-vote-for-caq/article4491956/

[Poirot]

friction? how so? each prov wing as it is now is pretty independant other then the federal ties, thats the "tie that binds" so to speak

Every provincial party targeting left of center voters feeling other parties are hurting their chances, creating rivalries. Like PQ and QS now, or Option Nationale. If there is a federalist NDP Quebec, maybe QS people will be hesitant to help federal NDP.

An editorial from La Presse on a possible NDP-Quebec.
http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/francois-cardinal/201208/20/01-4566668-un-npd-quebec.php

It mentions a Léger poll from a year ago, 34% would be willing to vote for a NDP Quebec. I went to look for it and it was the ADQ (surprinsingly) and QS voters who were the most receptive.   

[Poirot]

A poll showing PLQ in front? Really? Strange that stories seems to be about them losing voters. Maybe the threat of referendum is working to bring back traditonal liberal voters.

Or the PLQ is not really gaining but the PQ is losing votes to QS (if done post debate) and CAQ.

The Liberal calling for strategic voting looks to be a black sheep in the party. He wanted an inquiry on the construction industry.

[MaxQue]

It mentions a Léger poll from a year ago, 34% would be willing to vote for a NDP Quebec. I went to look for it and it was the ADQ (surprinsingly) and QS voters who were the most receptive.   

Not surprising at all. A part of ADQ (and CAQ) wants change, so they'll vote for any party which brings change. Those voters voted NDP federally, too.

[RogueBeaver]

Poirot: Not if they're losing 1/4 of non-Francos. Similar thing happened with the UN in '76 albeit on a smaller scale.

[Phony Moderate]

I suppose it's more likely than not that at least one poll in the next two weeks will show CAQ ahead.