Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Hash]

Charest just announced his resignation as Liberal leader and retirement from public life. His resignation will take effect when Marois and her Cabinet are sworn in 10-15 days from now.

Who is likely to succeed charest as Quebec Liberal leader?

Depends who runs. I doubt anyone outside caucus. The strongest candidate would probably be the outgoing justice minister Jean-Marc Fournier, maybe outgoing finance minister Raymond Bachand (who's 65).  Given that there's another election as soon as Charbonneau does Marois' work for her and quite possibly giving her a majority... who knows?

Yves Bolduc has always kinda struck me as a guy who might go for the leadership in good circumstances. Is my uneducated impression correct?

[RogueBeaver]

Bolduc another possibility, though again the circumstances make it unlikely. Couillard would only take a silver-platter draft* and those conditions certainly won't be existing for a while. Doubt Bellemare was ever interested and he's way too mavericky (scarlet letter in the PLQ), plus endorsing Cardin in Sherbrooke nuked whatever possibility there was.


* I remain convinced that Couillard is the PLQ's McKenna.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was quite surprised by how extensive the news coverage of these elections was in France (at least, on France Inter). We still love our cousins.

[adma]

Doubt Bellemare was ever interested and he's way too mavericky (scarlet letter in the PLQ), plus endorsing Cardin in Sherbrooke nuked whatever possibility there was.

Come to think of it, there ought to be more mention out there of how Charest's personal loss may have had less to do w/Charest per se than w/the "heavy hitter" strength of Serge Cardin, particularly in the event of a PQ government.  Indeed, had the PQ fallen short of Lib seat numbers and Marois forced to resign, I could see Cardin as a strong candidate for her replacement...

[Vosem]

If the Liberals are worried about Charbonneau, it might make sense to pick a new leader who's seen as not friendly with Charest...Pierre Paradis is still around, or is that impossible?

[RogueBeaver]

He barely held the riding he's had for 32 years plus at this stage in his career dunno if he's interested. Unlike the others he's run for leadership before...  a very distant second against Robert Bourassa in 1983. Fresher blood is needed IMO. Fournier is their best bet if he wants it. Very competent and well clear of the sleaze.

[LastVoter]

How far was QS from third seat?

[Smid]

How far was QS from third seat?

They were a distant second in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (a little over 6,000 votes), but a close-ish second in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques (a little under 3,000 votes). They were also a close-ish third in Laurier-Dorion (a little over 3,000 votes, and about 650 votes behind second place). I think those were their best results in seats they didn't win, but I haven't looked too far afield so could be mistaken.

[DL]

I think Justin Trudeau should run for the Quebec Liberal leadership. Let's face it, being leader of the federal Liberals is a dead end job if ever there was one, but as leader of the Quebec Liberals he could easily be premier of Quebec! Besides what old be better than running against Marois and the Pequistes as "Super Just" the savior of Canada!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Isn't the PLQ too right-wing nowadays for federal liberals ?

[MaxQue]

Isn't the PLQ too right-wing nowadays for federal liberals ?

The PLQ is mainly federalist. It contains centrists, right-wingers and left-wingers (through most of them jumped ship).

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Justin Trudeau should run for the Quebec Liberal leadership. Let's face it, being leader of the federal Liberals is a dead end job if ever there was one, but as leader of the Quebec Liberals he could easily be premier of Quebec! Besides what old be better than running against Marois and the Pequistes as "Super Just" the savior of Canada!

I hope you're joking, because Trudeau would be a disaster for the PLQ. Would be great for the NDP though.

[RogueBeaver]

Fournier isn't interested. So they're left with Bachand and Bolduc.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jockeying-to-replace-charest-under-way/article4523561/

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada is saying than Bolduc, Bachand and Paradis are considering.
Moreau and Thériault refused to comment.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm a bit surprised at QS getting almost a quarter of the vote in Laurier-Dorion, better than in all but 3 other ridings. Has there recently been significant migration of student/hipster types north into Villeray?

[MaxQue]

I'm a bit surprised at QS getting almost a quarter of the vote in Laurier-Dorion, better than in all but 3 other ridings. Has there recently been significant migration of student/hipster types north into Villeray?

Villeray is quickly becoming the new trendy neighbourhood and it's very, very left-wing.
It is the neighbourhood where people were on balconies to hit on foodware during the height of the strike.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm a bit surprised at QS getting almost a quarter of the vote in Laurier-Dorion, better than in all but 3 other ridings. Has there recently been significant migration of student/hipster types north into Villeray?

Villeray is quickly becoming the new trendy neighbourhood and it's very, very left-wing.
It is the neighbourhood where people were on balconies to hit on foodware during the height of the strike.

That makes sense, then - thanks.

[MaxQue]

http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/ottawa/2012/09/08/006-benoit-pelletier-chef-plq.shtml

Benoît Pelletier, MNA for Chapleau 1998-2008, former intergovernmental affairs minister, is considering a run for Liberal leadership.

[DL]

I'm a bit surprised at QS getting almost a quarter of the vote in Laurier-Dorion, better than in all but 3 other ridings. Has there recently been significant migration of student/hipster types north into Villeray?

Villeray is quickly becoming the new trendy neighbourhood and it's very, very left-wing.
It is the neighbourhood where people were on balconies to hit on foodware during the height of the strike.

Its also the core of the federal riding of Papineau which is currently represented by one Justin Trudeau but which would be an almost perfect NDP riding in Montreal. Without Justin T., Papineau would have gone NDP in a landslide

[RogueBeaver]

Pelletier would be an interesting choice, that's for sure.

[MaxQue]

I'm a bit surprised at QS getting almost a quarter of the vote in Laurier-Dorion, better than in all but 3 other ridings. Has there recently been significant migration of student/hipster types north into Villeray?

Villeray is quickly becoming the new trendy neighbourhood and it's very, very left-wing.
It is the neighbourhood where people were on balconies to hit on foodware during the height of the strike.

Its also the core of the federal riding of Papineau which is currently represented by one Justin Trudeau but which would be an almost perfect NDP riding in Montreal. Without Justin T., Papineau would have gone NDP in a landslide

Trudeau was 3rd in Villeray. Trudean won because he lead in St-Michel and than he polled 70% in the immigrant area between Parc Jarry and TMR (between Acadie Blvd and the railroad).

[Hatman 🍁]

Im convinced Trudeau didnt win because he is Trudeau, but because would-be NDP voters in his riding thought of the race as being a 2-horse race between Trudeau and the BQ and voted Trudeau. That wont happen again next time.

[RogueBeaver]

I thought this was the QC '12 thread.

Anyhoo, a good Globe article on Marois' cabinet-making. Dunno why the swearing-in date hasn't been set yet. If the '03 schedule then they should take their oaths next Wednesday/Thursday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/pq-cabinet-will-be-a-balancing-act-for-marois/article4529003/

[RogueBeaver]

Reduced Cabinet size, 20-22 ministers. No surprises: Marceau goes to Finance, Hebert to Health and Maltais to Treasury Board. Cabinet will be unveiled on Sept. 19, MNAs sworn in a week from today.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201209/09/01-4572475-un-conseil-des-ministres-du-pq-reduit.php


PLQ board will nominate Fournier as interim leader. Moreau is already setting up a campaign.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201209/09/01-4572482-plq-jean-marc-fournier-a-linterim.php?

[MaxQue]

The losing candidate in La Prairie and Saint-François requested a recount.
Now, it is in the hands of the judge who will decide if the reasons they give is enough to recount.