Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

No. This is a 3-way race which anyone can win. Potentially the seat winner isn't the popular vote winner (as in '66). All the Indies look headed to defeat. If any survive, it will be either Lapointe, Curzi or Beaudoin.

[MaxQue]

McKay said on his Twitter on February 11 than he will run in Repentigny.

[RogueBeaver]

If Charest wins again, he'll join Gouin, Taschereau, Duplessis and Bourassa in the four-term club. Though they all won majorities... so he'll be forever a noob there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/charest-is-still-the-man-go-figure/article2342454/

Charest fishing for left-wing votes is a first.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343182/patients-diriges-vers-le-prive-bolduc-en-saisit-le-college-des-medecins

Yawn.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343180/droits-de-scolarite-plus-de-30-000-etudiants-sont-en-greve

If she does that she'll blow her nascent recovery.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/19/01-4497511-marois-veut-remettre-la-souverainete-a-lavant-plan.php

[MaxQue]

You know, if that annoy Gaétan Barrette, I'm totally for that.
I can't stand the man, and honestly, a doctor that obese isn't healthy and isn't a good example to his patients.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with you on Barrette, if not the policy. Everyone knows the CHA has been dead in all but name for eons. Heck, even Peggy Nash admitted as much a couple of weeks ago. Why Charest is making a tactical ploy to her left is beyond me.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest has missed his window. The earliest dissolution by his own timetable would be immediately after the budget passes. I for one am eager for these hearings to start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-dans-la-construction/201202/21/01-4498212-la-commission-charbonneau-tiendra-une-premiere-seance-en-mai.php

Did anyone else figure Bachand for a Turner-like figure?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/21/01-4498107-vie-privee-apres-toews-bachand.php

Good. We should start building nuke plants again, albeit properly.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/environnement/201202/20/01-4497987-la-ministre-boulet-veut-renover-gentilly-2.php

[Peter the Lefty]

I just read that articule! ok Quebec is just becoming rediculous... i'm, going to move in with my sister and start my own party now

... i still think there is some, some serious chatter from some in the NDP about setting up a NPDQ... which would mean 9 parties... Quebec really is looking like europe now, very dutch looking.
I know this scenario seems rediculous; no party with more than 20seats, and most not won by more than 20% either... but could spell the end to FPTP in Quebec.
... i would be very excited to see QS and the Greens with over 10 seats

At least an NPDQ would join the CAQ in being the only two parties that aren't all based around the sovereignty issue.  And it would be a much needed to fill the gap on the left because this is how the parties line up on issues besides sovereignty.
PLQ: Center to center-right
PQ: formerly center-left/social democratic, now basically centrist/neoliberal
CAQ: Center-right
PCQ: Right wing
QS: left to far left/socialist
PVQ: Center-left (but little chance of gaining seats w/ FPTP and so many parties.

Wow, getting pretty crowded on the center and right wing there.   

[RogueBeaver]

PQ is still centre-left.

[MaxQue]

PCQ is totally irrelevent.

[RogueBeaver]

PCQ is totally irrelevent.

Agreed. Legault could also be marginalized because he has great difficulty communicating in either official language, and Charest is, as Ian MacDonald never fails to remind us, the best retailer of his generation.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger: PQ 30, PLQ 29, CAQ 26, QS 8.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/22/01-4498820-marois-rebondit.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

[MaxQue]

The trend is clear. PQ raises, CAQ slides, Liberals are very stable (which is normal, they only have their core vote, at that point).

[RogueBeaver]

What should alarm Liberals the most is that they have less than 20% of Francophone voters. PQ is drawing votes from the CAQ and QS, but IMO the winner will need 35-37% PV to form governmnet.

[RogueBeaver]

QS unveils some candidates.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499935-quebec-solidaire-devoile-16-candidats.php

If there was a window, he missed it.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/25/01-4499714-la-vitesse-un-gros-risque-pour-charest.php

I'd expect he'll dissolve shortly after the budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499893-rumeurs-delections-lopposition-sactive.php

[MaxQue]

A Forum Research poll from last week.

PQ: 39%
PLQ: 30%
CAQ: 19%

Probably an outlier.

[RogueBeaver]

Definitely an outlier.

[Smid]

Finished the Quebec Map including Montreal and Quebec City insets.



Slight edit to tidy up the Nelligan/Robert-Baldwin riding boundary , just south of Fabre on the Southern Quebec Inset. Also removed a couple of rogue pixels in Labelle.

[RogueBeaver]

Lapointe is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/04/004-retrait-politique-lisette-lapointe.shtml


As is LeMay, but Marois snagged a star candidate in St. Marie-St. Jacques.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344263/circonscription-pequiste-de-sainte-marie-saint-jacques-lemay-part-breton-arrive

[RogueBeaver]

Won't go anywhere, but might stir up a language battle.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/national/201203/06/01-4502973-huntingdon-conteste-la-loi-101-une-politique-raciste.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

Dissolution in early May?

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/06/002-budget-provincial-raymond-bachand-annonce-date-depot.shtml

[RogueBeaver]

Budget comes down 2 weeks from today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/06/01-4503024-budget-bachand-le-20-mars.php

[Smid]

Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

[RogueBeaver]

You'll have at least 6 weeks, if not more. I wouldn't expect dissolution before late April at the earliest.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd rather have the notional results for Alberta at this point.

[Smid]

I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.

[lilTommy]

Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties.