Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Smid]

Done in a bit of a rush, so there could be a few errors, but I think these are the results of the last election:

2008 Quebec Election Results Map




Of course, there's a bigger version in the gallery.

Edit: I've added some extra detail in the Eastern part of the Southern Quebec Inset, so it now stretches the width of the page. Doesn't add any extra ridings or anything, it's purely for the aesthetics.

[Smid]

Heh. Are you familiar with the Quebec-Labrador boundary dispute?

I read up on it a little while working on the map. Apparently it was "settled" during the 1920s(?), prior to Newfoundland & Labrador joining Canada, so was therefore a boundary dispute between Canada and N&L and was taken to the Privy Council in London for a decision, since both were part of the Commonwealth (I think both were classed "Dominions" - don't know if that word is still in use - N&L was certianly one, not sure about Canada).

The dispute revolved around the definition of "The Coasts of Labrador" - apparently Newfoundland in an earlier agreement/declaration was given "The Coasts of Labrador" and the debate was something to do with whether they were entitled to land 1 mile from the ocean, or 1 mile in altitude? Something like that, although 1 mile in altitude is pretty high, so I could be wrong... Quebec never accepted the ruling by the Privy Council.

Anyway, the solid line is the boundary as shown on the redistribution maps put out by Commission de la representation electorale du Quebec (including the recent ones), and the dotted line is the boundary recognised by the Canadian Government, etc. I gave a bit of thought as to how to proceed with the map, given the disputed boundary, and thought that using solid and dashed lines was probably the best way of showing the riding.

Actually, here's Wikipedia's write-up on the dispute.

[Smid]

In case people are interested (as always, bigger versions in the gallery):

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - Liberal Vote




2008 Quebec Election Results Map - PQ Vote




2008 Quebec Election Results Map - ADQ Vote

[Smid]

Smid, can we see a QS vote map... the most recent Polls had them about 3-4times higher then in 2008 (3%, now roughly 9-12%) Teddy has them winning 4 seats.

Teddy, can you do a NPDQ map? i would be really interested to see where they pick up on a provincial level.

Note that there are only a half-dozen ridings in which QS received >10% of the vote:

Outremont (11.43%)
Hochelaga - Maisonneuve (12.93%)
Laurier - Dorion (13.01%)
Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques (15.4%)
Gouin (31.85%)
Mercier (37.89%)

Additionally, there were three ridings in which QS did not field a candidate - Abitibi-Ouest, Gatineau and Notre-Dame-de-Grace.

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - QS Vote




Bigger version, of course, is in the gallery.

[Smid]

Uh, there was no QS candidate in Gatineau.

You are entirely correct. I have a glitch somewhere in my spreadsheet. I'm going to have to look into it closely - and it probably affects some of those other ridings and party support maps, too.

Edit: Found the problem - hadn't left the Gatineau cell blank (as Hashemite rightly points out) and then everything else below there (in the NDP column) has bumped up a row, which explains why Gouin is so low, compared to other seats adjoining it. It shouldn't take too long to fix the spreadsheet, but it will take a while to fix the maps. My apologies, everyone.

Edit 2: Not as bad as I thought, looks like it's only affected three cells or so, just down to Groulx, where QS actually did run a candidate.

[Smid]

All fixed and updated. I think it should all be correct now. Let me know if you spot any more mistakes, but I think it's now right.

[Smid]

If you'll be so kind, Sir Topham.

Indeed! I have a copy of your pre-2011 national one and it really is a work of art!

[Smid]

I am still working on my Quebec Map following the redistribution last year, but this much should suffice for now:



The large blank area in the top- to middle-right is for Montreal and Quebec City insets. They're partially completed, but I deleted them from the image I uploaded here since it looks pretty messy at the moment. I have a few other things I need to do as a priority at the moment, so it will be a little while until the two city insets are finished, although if an election gets called I'll finish them right away. There's not much left to do on them, but still a little bit. Anyway, the map here, with the Southern Quebec Inset should suffice for any predictions/projections. The detail on Montreal isn't perfect and will be rectified once that inset is complete, but this should do for now.

Edit: Oh, and as usual, the bigger version is in the Gallery.

[Smid]

May I use this as a base for creating my own map?

I am more than happy for you to use any of my base maps. That's why I upload them. I consider it a sincere compliment for someone to use them.

[Smid]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

I see that he's stolen my idea by using maps. The ironic thing is, that he is using my Wikipedia base maps (that I made) that I have abandoned for my site.  By the way, did he do provincial predictions in the Fall? I want to compare with him, to see if my claim as the best predicting site holds any water.

He's updated your Alberta one, however, to reflect the redistribution (note Fort Mac split into two ridings and the top of Calgary is stepped, rather than flat. Airdrie is also a useful point of reference between the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution maps, and the part of it that's been excised and added to Foothills, to create that inverted U-shaped riding around the Eastern, Northern and Western sides of Calgary). Anyway, I find that those are the most immediately obvious changes following the redistribution, which are easiest to spot when trying to identify whether the map is recent or dated.

He still seems to be using the old Quebec map, however (obvious points of difference between pre- and post-redistribution, I find, are in the South-Eastern border where Quebec borders Maine. Megantic doesn't reach the East-West US-Canadian border now, whereas the old Megantic-Compton did, Shefford was elongated/rectangular, whereas the new Granby is more square-ish... well, not perfectly, but you get the idea, St Francois is no longer a thing North-South oriented riding, but now an odd-shaped one with a nobbly bit on top and occupies the entire Eastern end of the East-West border with the US, the somewhat T-Shaped (or sideways V-Shaped?) Arthabaska is bigger, and the small angled L-shaped Drummond is gone, split between other ridings). Anyway, those are again the ridings that I think are most obvious in demonstrating the change between pre- and post-redistribution. The Southern ridings below Montreal have also changed, and you could also try counting the number of ridings on Laval, but I think the most obvious difference is Shefford/Granby and whether St Francois or Megantic occupies the end of the East-West US-Canada border.

Here is the old map again, as a point of reference:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2482_14_11_11_5_40_37.png (not posting it as an image, just as a link, since it would otherwise clutter up the thread).

The old and new Alberta maps are after one another in that thread, so I won't post those comparisons here.

Edit: Oh, and in addition to the top of Calgary being stepped, look also for the odd-shaped sprout off Calgary Northwest, heading up to encompass Bear Paw. The old Calgary boundaries were quite smooth, like a rectangle with a rectangular chunk cut out of it in the western side, or a bit like a very digital "g" whereas the new boundaries of the City of Calgary are a bit harder to describe.

[Smid]

Great work, Teddy!

[Smid]

Finished the Quebec Map including Montreal and Quebec City insets.



Slight edit to tidy up the Nelligan/Robert-Baldwin riding boundary , just south of Fabre on the Southern Quebec Inset. Also removed a couple of rogue pixels in Labelle.

[Smid]

Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

[Smid]

I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.

[Smid]

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties. 

Yeah, it's by no means a prediction or a projection or anything, merely a statement of what happened within those boundaries last election (and since changed boundaries may well mean changed campaign strategy, it doesn't even imply who would actually have won the seat on those boundaries). It does, however, give a starting point when considering polling results. It's no different to looking at any other results from the last election. Indeed, the Beauce ridings didn't have any boundary changes, so it's no different to looking at Beauce Nord results from last election - not an indication of how any party will do there this election, but a useful starting point. Also handy for calculating swings after the election.

[Smid]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

Oh, that is awesome! Good job tracking that down! I had started to do some of the sums for that a few months back, but then switched my focus to Alberta (you can see a few pages back in this thread). This is great! I'll convert these to maps!

[Smid]

Notional 2008 Quebec Election Results, according to this PDF.

2008 Quebec Notional Election Results

[Smid]

I like the shade of blue you've used for CAQ - it differentiates quite nicely from the Aqua/Teal/bluey-green of the PQ.

EDIT: I hope you don't mind - I copied your blue colour scheme into my "shading tones" file, where I keep all those colour schemes in the one handy place.

[Smid]

I made the 1994 and 1998 maps, and I have stuff about boundaries since 1966 (but I haven't traced any base maps from them, because it seems really hard, but if somebody is a winner they should...)

And there's a reason why I use Wordpress, noob

Happy to work on base maps, over time. Presently working on the 2001 Australian Federal election map. The other feed maps I've completed are in the international gallery. I want to work on some older Canadian federal ones, too.

[Smid]

Great work, Earl!

When will we start to see results? To save me doing a timezones calculation, would someone mind posting along the lines of "in so many hours?"

[Smid]

Four polls in and Charest trails by about 1.5%, which I think is closer than implied by recent polls? Of course, the location of said polls could be relevant - near the university, for example, or conversely, away from it...

[Smid]

Iles-de-la-Madeleine has changed quite a bit, too. PQ now ahead by two votes, whereas earlier polls were quite strong for the PLQ. Is it that polarised?

[Smid]

Only 4 ridings have been declared. Looks like a minority government at this stage.

CAQ will be kingmakers - will it be a minority government, or will they negotiate a coalition? Which side will they back?

[Smid]

2012 Quebec Provincial Election


Bigger version in the gallery. I've used Earl's expanded colour scale (thanks, mate!).

Numbers are based off the CBC map (clicking on each riding), so there may be some slight inaccuracies.

[Smid]

Yeah, PQ were losers tonight as well, compared to what they "should" have gotten, but I'm reluctant to call them a loser if they still get to form a government.

Indeed. A party that formed a government for the first time in a decade is definitely not a "loser".

They're more a Steven Bradbury winner.