Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Right now it's all Charbonneau Commission, all the time. Legault has said he's only serving a single term should he win, and presumably like the ADQ the party collapses without him. Then back to business as usual. As for who might replace Marois, right now it looks to be Curzi. No one is behind Charest, now that Normandeau, Mulcair, Couillard and Dupuis are gone in one way or another. L'actualite has a profile of Legault if anyone's interested.

Platforms: School boards aside, the CAQ platform is essentially centre-left like the Grits. Less radical than Charest's 2003 manifesto IMO. The man had a horrible record at Education (implemtning the ghastly "reforms" along with Marois that I narrowly escaped) and an otherwise mediocre career. Yet he's supposedly the savior. I'll go on the record now as saying this is the ADQ c. 2007 all over again, with a similar final outcome.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I don't understand the Duceppe nostalgia either. What I find more interesting is what will happen in 2016, when Legault will leave (f he keeps the one-term pledge) and presumably the CAQ leaves with him.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1078940--hebert-faint-hope-for-duceppe-as-saviour

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ is now officially registered.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201110/31/01-4463091-nouveau-parti-de-francois-legault-demande-deposee-au-dge.php

[RogueBeaver]

That is the French acronym: Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec,

[RogueBeaver]

In English it would be the Coalition for the Future of Quebec (CFQ). However no one I know, regardless of political or linguistic affilation, calls it that. Hell, most press reports still refer to it in one way or another as the party led by Legault, which is entirely accurate. He hasn't even unveiled any star candidates yet, just some obscure people of different affiliations (former federal Tory candidate, former Peq, former Adequiste) but no names even the hardest-core junkies would recognize. I do know that he tried to recruit Marlene Jennings but got turned down, and that's all we've heard on the candidate front.

My theory? No one wants to hitch their name to a time-limited enterprise and an affiliation which might hurt them down the road if they want to run with one of the established parties. You can't recruit big names unless you convince one to jump in and trigger a chain reaction, as happened successfully with the federal Liberals in '65.

[RogueBeaver]

Another regional association president asks Marois to step down. They're deluding themselves if they think a) a guy Kim Campbelled 6 months ago is the solution b) that the product, not the marketer, is the problem.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201110/31/01-4463176-le-president-du-pq-dans-les-laurentides-reclame-duceppe-en-renfort.php

Legault's poll numbers are on an education curve.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/actualites/201111/01/01-4463210-francois-legault-gagnant-a-trois-rivieres.php

[RogueBeaver]

Seven defectors to CAQ in the current Assemblee by February?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201111/01/01-4463545-francois-legault-vise-sept-deputes-en-fevrier.php

[RogueBeaver]

Despite appearances, it won't require some serious adjustments to the ideological recipe. CAQ is centre-to-centre-right, the ADQ is the UN's successor party in all but name. Case in point: ADQ supports formalized 2-tier healthcare, CAQ puts all their eggs in the social... I mean Medicare basket. But the ADQ has been a shell for the past 30 months, so no adjustment required. Think of an alternate scenario with the PCs absorbing the Alliance, and PC culture/ideology predominating. That's essentially what will happen here.

[RogueBeaver]

The problem is what happens when Legault leaves in 2016. CAQ can still survive as a shell, much as the ADQ has post-Dumont, but unless he finds a credible successor among his list of star candidates then curtains.

Most likely CAQ will not run in the Bonaventure by-election that will determine Normandeau's successor, which allows both Charest and Marois to save face.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/334951/le-piege-de-bonaventure

[RogueBeaver]

Because the PQ is where most left-wingers park their votes.

[RogueBeaver]

Shocker: PLQ accepts illegal donations.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/02/01-4463867-papiers-fraser-a-verse-4-presumes-dons-illegaux-au-plq.php

[RogueBeaver]

Okaay... Marois saying that Duceppe can have whatever (subordinate) post he wants.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/335120/en-bref-marois-ouvre-la-porte-a-duceppe

[RogueBeaver]

So I haven't been able to find much information... Is the CAQ considered a right-wing party? 

I keep getting this question, so here's a link to their policy papers and everyone can make their own judgment.

http://www.coalitionavenir.org/publications.php

[RogueBeaver]

Purple seems the best. There's nothing particularly radical in their proposals. Indeed, I feel vindicated in my judgment of centrist, even centre-left.

EP1: Create a $5 billion fund from general revenue and the Caisse to buy minority stakes in natural resource projects.

EP2: Increase Caisse spending.

EP3: Protect agricultural land to keep it in domestic hands.

EP4: Support the transfer of businesses to next generation and/or employees.

EP5: Encourage Quebecers (presumably through tax credits) to invest in Quebec businesses.

EP6: Tax credits for companies which invest in renewable tech.

EP7: Coordinate with the major pension funds on an international marketing strategy.

EP8: Support the emergence of investment funds that a) allow participation by the general public b) invest in tech.

EP9: Exploit our natural resources.

EP10: 100% of natural resource revenue diverted to debt service.


Health: (100% committed to public system, unlike the openly two-tierish ADQ)

H1: Modify pharmacists' salaries to encourage adoption of more patients (presumably along the carrot/stick formula used for doctors).

H2: Boost numbers of nurses and administrators to help family doctors.

H3: Allow lengthier prescription times and allow pharmacists to issue prescriptions under certain circumstances.

H4: Impose structures that would allow family doctors to ensure continuity of care.

H5: Promote family doctors.


Education:

E1. Increase elementary and secondary school teachers' salaries by 20%.

E2. Abolish all school boards, return most of regional directorates' powers to schools.

E3. Encourage post-secondary institutions to boost enrollment and pool resources.


Language/Culture

LC1. Increase funding for immigrant integration, particularly French-language education.

LC2. Two-year immigration freeze.

LC3. Renegotiate the Ottawa-Quebec immigration accord to allow for 95% family-class immigrants instead of the current 20%.

LC4. Stricter enforcement of the language laws' commercial provisions.

LC5. Improve both English-second-language and French teaching at the post-secondary level.

LC6. Close the loophole that allows for a switch from English-private to English-public for certain Anglo/Allos by invoking Section 33. (notwithstanding clause)

LC7. Major boost in cultural funding.

[RogueBeaver]

So I haven't been able to find much information... Is the CAQ considered a right-wing party? 

I keep getting this question, so here's a link to their policy papers and everyone can make their own judgment.

http://www.coalitionavenir.org/publications.php

Also, it does not matter what we think, it only matters what the media tells people.

A friend of mine had the best line on our (Quebec's) current political mood: we're riding a wind of change for change's sake, regardless of the outcome. Plus the political messiah complex.

[RogueBeaver]

Centre-left pablum mixed with Blue Toryism? ERROR, DOES NOT COMPUTE.

[RogueBeaver]

Could this proposal of an ADQ-CAQ merger help the ADQ in the by-election?

ADQ got less than 5% in 2008. Normandeau won 64-30, and that figure should be the benchmark. If the PQ dips below 25 (this is a seat that except for 1994-8, has been Grit since the '50s) then Marois' troubles grow exponentially.

On another subject, it's a very mild start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/09/01-4466239-les-elus-veulent-moderniser-la-loi-antigreve.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

Charbonneau gets her full powers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201111/09/01-4466190-charbonneau-aura-tous-les-pouvoirs-prevus-par-la-loi.php

[RogueBeaver]

Lapointe (Mme Parizeau for non-Quebecers) joins the Option Nationale splinter group. Someone (IIRC it was Hebert) wrote recently that in retrospect, the PQ crisis dates to 2007 when QS was formed. Two splinter groups: one that thinks the PQ is insufficiently leftist, another which thinks they're insufficiently separatist. For the first time since the 1960s, their movement is Balkanized.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/17/01-4468945-lisette-lapointe-adhere-a-option-nationale.php

[RogueBeaver]

The CAQ has a commanding lead in the polls, although surely they'll fall quite a bit, right?

Anything can happen over the next year. The parallel for your scenario would be the rise and fall of the ADQ in 2007-8. Also rumours of another caucus revolt were shot down by Marois today.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336361/parti-quebecois-pauline-marois-doit-encore-reaffirmer-la-loyaute-de-son-caucus

To distract, Marois is now pushing for an all-party consensus to hand over Quebec's federal UI payments to provincial coffers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/18/01-4469460-marois-veut-une-coalition-pour-le-rapatriement-de-lassurance-emploi.php

[RogueBeaver]

New poll confirms what I suspected: change for change's sake is still in the air. Here's the full poll.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336595/sondage-leger-marketing-le-devoir-legault-sur-les-traces-du-npd

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage21nov.pdf

Bonaventure won't boost either Charest or Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/will-by-election-boost-charest-before-battle-with-legault-begins-in-earnest/article2243371/

Too good to be true: PQ is actually launching that pro-Marois ad campaign. Good luck at humanizing la reine d'Ile Bizard.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336606/le-pq-lance-sa-campagne-de-publicite

Key takeaways from that poll.

General: CAQ 35, PLQ 22, PQ 21, ADQ/QS 8.

Francophones: 40/24/14, with the PLQ in last. Those are wipeout numbers.

Anglo/Allos: PLQ 57, CAQ 12, PV 9, ADQ 8. If they merge, then some West Island Pelquistes might be in for a long night.

Montreal: 34/22/21, same order as the Francophone numbers.

Quebec City: 29/24/22.

ROQ: 36/22/19.

Reason why most non-Caquistes don't trust them: vague platitudes as their platform. Legault also leads PMP. PQ leads on defending Quebec's interests and language, otherwise CAQ leads all issue-trust indicators.

[RogueBeaver]

Pauline is going insane.

She expelled an MNA on Tuesday for perhaps being a mole.
She expelled another MNA on Thursday for thinking to join another party.

A mole? What? As for the other guy, she should've done a de facto rather than de jure expulstion: i.e. "you have x days to decide your political affilation (and barred from caucus meetings till then), if you want to stay stay, otherwise leave." But yeah, I'm seeing parallels to Carole James already. Can you get a link to the "mole" guy? Can't find it on either La Presse or Le Devoir.
 

CAQ link.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336840/courtise-par-la-caq-daniel-ratthe-est-expulse-du-caucus-pequiste

[RogueBeaver]

He pled to a criminal charge, that seems like a legit reason for parliamentary sanctions.

[RogueBeaver]

AND, the election's gonna be some horrific FPTP nightmare, on top of all this.

According to one projection, you could get over 100 CAQ, 15 Liberals, 6 PQ, 4 ADQ, and Khadir as the sole Indie. Haven't seen a National Assembly like that since the Bourasslide of '73.

[RogueBeaver]

Strange battle in Bonaventure.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/26/01-4471888-letrange-bataille-de-bonaventure.php