Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[lilTommy]

Hidden at the bottom of the recent Leger poll I used to build this.

Would you vote for a provincial NDP?
Total:
YES - 34%
NO - 20%
DUNNO - 46%

PLQ
YES - 29%
NO - 35%

PQ
YES - 34%
NO - 27%

ADQ
YES - 46%
NO - 12%

QS
YES - 44%
NO - 16%



If anyone is interested, let me know, and I'll build an ElectoMatic with a Quebec NDP.

Yes Please!

And I'm dumbfounded that ADQ'rs are more likely then QS'rs to vote QNPD? but PQ politics is all over the map fun
Anyone from Quebec know why there has been no movement to reform a provincial wing (for the third time i think it would be) of the NDP? I know the QS occupies most of the apace the QNPD would (minus the sovereignty thing) but based on those numbers the party should be foaming at the mouth. I understand the membership is pretty thin but given the leadership race with three Quebecers (Saganash, Mulcair and ok Topp too) that should boost the parties presence even more.

CAQ seems to be ADQ lite, less aggressively right-wing, but still taste as bad

[lilTommy]

Well, I for one am deeply shocked. I presume that everyone else here is... shocked?

Shocked!... that we are only finding out now

[lilTommy]

looks like CAQ will sit on the Centre right-Right if they do what the ADQ would like:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/11/08/qc-adq-legault-merger.html

[lilTommy]

Smid, can we see a QS vote map... the most recent Polls had them about 3-4times higher then in 2008 (3%, now roughly 9-12%) Teddy has them winning 4 seats.

Teddy, can you do a NPDQ map? i would be really interested to see where they pick up on a provincial level.

[lilTommy]

Which is the second MNA?

Her most recent victims are Guy Leclair (le mole) MNA for Beauharnois and Daniel Ratthe MNA for Blainville... She is running out of MNA's to screw with

[lilTommy]

Crazy. I heard of the first but not the second. Perhaps I should create a graphic so we can keep track of the current standings in the house. At this rate it'll be PLQ-65 PQ-1 IND-60

Close
from my wiki math its: PLQ 64; PQ 44; ADQ 4; QS 1; ON (Option Nationale) 2; IND 9... 1 vacant (looks like a PLQ victory though)

[lilTommy]

AND, the election's gonna be some horrific FPTP nightmare, on top of all this.

According to one projection, you could get over 100 CAQ, 15 Liberals, 6 PQ, 4 ADQ, and Khadir as the sole Indie. Haven't seen a National Assembly like that since the Bourasslide of '73.

Khadir isn't and indie, hes with QS... and i'd expect them, with the downfall of the PQ to pick up at least 2 more (Gouin and Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques are top) but your point is true... you only have to look at May's federals to see quebecers like their victories big or barely

[lilTommy]

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they

[lilTommy]

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they

We always knew that Arsenault (now there's a necromanced dynasty if I've ever seen one ) would win. If the PQ can up their vote share by 7-8% then that takes some pressure off Marois.

I'm rather impressed that QS has managed 9%, if in a rural Liberal riding they can pull 3 times what they did last time, you will see more QS members in L'Assemblee Nationale
Pour Quoi Regressist?

[lilTommy]

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they

We always knew that Arsenault (now there's a necromanced dynasty if I've ever seen one ) would win. If the PQ can up their vote share by 7-8% then that takes some pressure off Marois.

I'm rather impressed that QS has managed 9%, if in a rural Liberal riding they can pull 3 times what they did last time, you will see more QS members in L'Assemblee Nationale
Pour Quoi Regressist?

Khadir will probably get some company in the next Assembly IMO, but only in Montreal ridings like Gouin. QS is a splinter group for far-left, pur et durs Peqs. So yeah, they're regressive.

I agree there, they wont win outside Gouin and perhaps SMSJ...Rosemont should be targetted since Beaudoin is an indie, and if she runs splits that Peqs vote. Hocehlaga-Maisonneuave should be a target since its hard french and relatively poor but looks like an incumbent. Odd, no peqs were evern part of the formation of QS... and their "sovereignty" is a means-to-an-end, rather then an ends-as-a-means approach... am i reading that wrong? From here, QS is the only progressive voice in quebec these days

[lilTommy]

QS isn't progressive.
With their proposals, they would kill some industries, like mining and tourism.
Their economical policies are flirting with communism and they put environment above all, even workers.

that IS left-wing and progressive.

So-called progressive, because that is regressist.

I think here it all depends on how you define progressive then... QS dosen't support the CURRENT mining process... and place the environment on the same level as growth and jobs... and if some corporations wont step up and government has to do it, so be it. To me thats progressive to put People and our quality of life and environment first above corporate greed.

From their platform:
"Current economic policies constitute a threat to the survival of ecosystems.
Québec solidaire proposes a new form of development, based on reformed
definitions of growth, production and consumption. This form of development
subordinates the economy to social justice and to a respect of our environ-
ment."

Anywho... i think that poll was dead on for the QS, which is a victory for them as their vote trippled. The PQ and PLQ are happy, PLQ won, and PQ performed better at the expense of the ADQ. BUT what if CAQ had run a candidate?

[lilTommy]

I live in a mining area and what they propose is unworkable.

Well, the whole idea of "reformed definitions of growth, production and consumption" is unworkable, since Quebec isn't isolated from the rest of the Canada/world.

Interesting, how so? unworkable that is? i'm curious as an urban guy and not from a mining area.

I think trying to develop an internal economy that is self-suffcient can only help when, as now, times get tough. But its hard for any region in the world to do that... but "don't let them tell you it can't be done" LOL

[lilTommy]

ADQ-CAQ... are one... ummm more like CAQ just ate up what was left of the ADQ
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Legault+absorbs+party/5852314/story.html

QS wknd convention write up:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Qu%c3%a9bec+solidaire+wants+language/5842616/story.html

Synopsis of some policy into the next election:
- Creating a State bank for Quebec
- Creating a universal retirement plan and minimum income guarantee for anyone over age 18.
- No support for expanding bill 101 in CEGEPs; But also want to push learning of english in french schools
- Supported a proposal against making the knowledge of English a hiring requirement unless it is shown to be indispensable for a position.

[lilTommy]

my refusal to vote Liberal has nothing to do with the party label.

I think that goes without saying, my comment was more tongue in cheek.

Although to suggest they are operating within the "orange model" is ridiculous. That is if you are suggesting they are a social democratic party. They are not. Jean Charest is every bit a Red Tory, and you should know that.

Now if you want to talk about Red Tories and social democracy, I know someone who claims Danny Williams is a social democrat. But that's a different story.

I'm not saying they're social democrats. I'm saying they're of the containment rather than the rollback school.

CAQ is so hard to pin down that way
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Legault+absorbs+party/5852314/story.html

They even called themselves the "third way"... ok, but RogueBeaver has a point, Legault still favours the current more social democratic system in place... while the ADQ didn't but, when the ship is sinking any life raft will due i suppose.

I think Quebecers are parking votes until they the election, then we get to see what CAQ is really made of. Cause its coming across as a Centre-Right rival to the PLQ and PQ... so that makes this QS supporter happy   I'd vote for them... the indepedence thing aside, their overall policies trump that one for me.

[lilTommy]

Moving on, 4 MNAs (Caire, Picard, Charette, Rathee) have joined the CAQ. So now their caucus numbers 8.

This is still not appearing on Wikipedia? Do you have a link that Wikipedia will accept that proves this; if so, I will add it myself.

cbc  news story?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/19/mtl-legault-caq-four-mnas.html

[lilTommy]

I just read that articule! ok Quebec is just becoming rediculous... i'm, going to move in with my sister and start my own party now

... i still think there is some, some serious chatter from some in the NDP about setting up a NPDQ... which would mean 9 parties... Quebec really is looking like europe now, very dutch looking.
I know this scenario seems rediculous; no party with more than 20seats, and most not won by more than 20% either... but could spell the end to FPTP in Quebec.
... i would be very excited to see QS and the Greens with over 10 seats

[lilTommy]

New poll: CAQ 31, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11. If anyone wants to plug this into their model...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/23/01-4488697-sondage-marois-nest-pas-au-bout-de-ses-peines.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4

What i find hilarious... is the 68% of pequiste think she should stay and 65% of all of Quebecers thinks she should go...

Everyone up but CAQ, is the shine rubbing off? now that they have unelected MNA's people will see what CAQ is all about. That could be good or bad for this new party

[lilTommy]

Jennings says NON to CAQ run

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+Jennings+says/6127245/story.html

[lilTommy]

Seineur! (sorry) who would have thought a month ago that the PQ... yes the once thought dead and broken apart party would... could win?!

Well if we look at the regions the PQ leads in 6, PLQ 2 and CAQ 3... it could happen. With FPTP, its a riding by riding game and in MTL where the PLQ leads some ridings will be 4 way battles!
Looks like people interest in the CAQ is starting to drop... anything can happen in an actual campaign so those numbers are still going to go all over the place.

[lilTommy]

Not really. CAQ had its honeymoon, and it looks less attractive on the second look. Plus we're due for a change anyways- no incumbency has lasted longer than 9 years since 1960. I always thought they made a mistake in continually passing her over. The "rebellion" was a bunch of malcontents who have personal beefs with her taking advantage of weak poll numbers. Now they'll all lose their seats...

Tommy: CAQ was a trend, not the first Quebec trend either federally or provincially to fade. They're a one-man band without original policies or even noteworthy candidates.

Two Montreal seats worth watching: L'Assomption (McKay v. Legault) and Gouin (Francoise David is running).

So those of you closer to the ground, see CAQ losing all 9 MNAs? I agree both L'Assomption and Gouin will be interesting... If CAQ wins it HAS to be here... but McKay is a big name. If QS can't win in Gouin, they probably can't win anywhere else.
Oh Isn't L'Assomption going to be dramatically altered with redistribution? From what i see the riding is going to be slip; south Repentigny and Saint-Sulpice will be in the new riding of Repentigny... and a new, larger L'Assomption which takes in towns/areas from Rousseau Masson and Terrbonne ridings. Is McKay running in Repentigny or L'Assomption? his call since hes the current member

[lilTommy]

Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties. 

[lilTommy]

PLQ supporters are certainly stubborn as hell, aren't they?

Well, they tend to think that the other parties are (basically) the devil, so there you are.

Who are hardcore, montreal english federalist suppost to vote for? and Charest could come out as the devil-in-carnet and he would still win seats on the west island.

This is why i STILL want a NPDQ but i digress that a whole other argument.

I support the students too, they are expected to make a counter offer... i think Charest boxed himself in on this issue.... frankly the rest of Canada is wrong. I would like to see people start talking about new funding ideas like graduate taxes.
Today will not be a good day for Charest.. its May Day... students will be joined by unionists and otehr anti-capitalists... he just can't get a break eh

[lilTommy]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Charest+expected+call+election+just+riding/6542677/story.html

no general election this summer but a by-election

[lilTommy]

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.

For the record, unlike PQ, QS doesn't see the independance as a goal, but as a tool to implant its program.

I think thats a HUGE distinction to make, and one thats especially lost on english/rest-of-canadian media, is it in PQ as well?

Any rate, isn't stopping QS from getting some strong candidates in place outside of Montreal...
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/07/19/006-elections-solidaire-couture.shtml


Outside of Mercier, Gouin and possibly Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jaques; i don't see QS winning anywhere else, but this is quebec and they will now have a place in the leaders debate so anything can happen... i'm hoping they surprise here in Ungava and win... a boy can dream

[lilTommy]

Is anyone surprised? The PQ (and QS) was out there and very visibly supportive of the students, whether that was politically motivated or ideologically, the point was they were there.

Laval-des-Rapides was one of the ridings to watch mentioned in the Globe articule
"... Laval-des-Rapides has also voted with the governmnet since its creation before the 1981 election."
So there is a chance he could win if the PQ manages to win gov't

Its odd that in both these cases, the parties chose young candidates... thats something i see normally not reserved for swimg/battle ridings. Thats something you see in a) super safe ridings or b) no-chance-in-hell ridings... but Quebec bucks the trend eh

With QS, i am hoping for a 2011-NPD repeat but... thats me; with 4 leaders in the debate, it sure will be interesting and might mean more gains for both CAQ and QS (Kadir was ranked at one point the most popular politician, but no guarantee he would even represent the party in the debate, might pass that to David to help her out in Gouin).