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Author Topic: Italian General Election 2012 ?  (Read 8963 times)
Insula Dei
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« on: October 26, 2011, 09:28:30 am »
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So, it appears to be the case that Bossi and Berlusconi have agreed that Berlusconi will resign around New Year and that there will be an election in February or March, in return for Bossi's support for budget cuts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15457900

Should be interesting Smiley

EDIT: Obviously this is mere speculation at this point, and if Al feels it should be in General International, he's absolutely free to move it there.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 09:30:20 am by aus seinen eigenen Reihn »Logged

Sibboleth
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2011, 09:34:00 am »
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I think it's possible that there will be a new election sooner rather than later, so let's keep this thread here. I (or you) can always change the title if needed anyway.
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2011, 09:35:39 am »
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Left-wing victory?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2011, 02:50:05 pm »
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You can't imagine how much I wish this to happen. We can't spend one more day with such a crippled, ridiculed, bankrupt government in such a tough situation. We need change, and need it now.

If elections are held soon, the left should be considered as heavily favorite to win as long as it unites (the coalition system makes it absolutely necessary). It has held a solid and steady lead for a while now.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2011, 10:05:49 am »
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I think there will be no election before 2013
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Roma Caput Mundi
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2011, 12:12:59 pm »
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Confidence vote on Tuesday...after a few deputies left the majority,this might well be Berlusconi's last confidence vote.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2011, 12:52:37 pm »
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Confidence vote on Tuesday...after a few deputies left the majority,this might well be Berlusconi's last confidence vote.

Crossing my fingers... f**ing crossing my fingers. But I've seen so much disappointments until now that I'm ready to everything.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2011, 05:47:27 pm »
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So who will be the left's candidate for Prime Minister?  Vendola or Bersani?
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2011, 06:00:45 pm »
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I am conflicted. On the one hand, my hatred of Berlusconi and care for the long-term future of the Italian nation wishes Berlusconi to survive until 2013. On the other hand, my fear of short-term market meltdown and instinctive wish to see Italy under a technocrat who could please the ECB wishes to see an early election. Hmmmm.
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Colbert
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2011, 06:49:04 pm »
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what are the difference between senatorial and chamber electoral system ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2011, 04:18:30 am »
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what are the difference between senatorial and chamber electoral system ?

The House seats are allocated based on nationwide PR, with the guarantee for the winning coalition to get at least 55% of the total seats. The Senate system is basically the same, except that it's based on regions (meaning that different coalitions can win 55% of seats from region to region).
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2011, 04:24:04 am »
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The last poll I've seen is this one:

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Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2011, 06:43:48 am »
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Yeah, a 10 points margin is what I'd expect... provided that the left is united.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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Roma Caput Mundi
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2011, 07:58:37 am »
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The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2011, 10:24:21 am »
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Wow, I expected Fini was a lot stronger than that.
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2011, 02:44:01 pm »
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The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).

You don't want to govern Italy right now. It's best for the right to win another election, it will be worth it, they will be discredited for the next generation or more. If the left wins, the left in Italy is finished for the rest of our lifetimes.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2011, 03:26:17 pm »
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The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).

You don't want to govern Italy right now. It's best for the right to win another election, it will be worth it, they will be discredited for the next generation or more. If the left wins, the left in Italy is finished for the rest of our lifetimes.

You might be right. If the left wins in Italy, it might be at risk to fail in the same way as in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and I sure don't wish that.

However, there is something more important than the left's interest : Italy's interest. Italy has one problem today, that is Berlusconi. Financial analysts, economists and everybody agree to say that, if Italy were ruled by anyone else, its financial situation would be far less risky. Its economy is pretty solid (for a southern country's standards) and its debt isn't enormous (it's only a tad higher than France's). Berlusconi is a threat for Italy, that's why he must be kicked out. At any cost.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2011, 03:32:01 pm »
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The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).

You don't want to govern Italy right now. It's best for the right to win another election, it will be worth it, they will be discredited for the next generation or more. If the left wins, the left in Italy is finished for the rest of our lifetimes.

You might be right. If the left wins in Italy, it might be at risk to fail in the same way as in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and I sure don't wish that.

However, there is something more important than the left's interest : Italy's interest. Italy has one problem today, that is Berlusconi.

No, no. What most people don't understand is: Berlusconi's not the only problem. Far from it.

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Financial analysts, economists and everybody agree to say that, if Italy were ruled by anyone else, its financial situation would be far less risky. Its economy is pretty solid (for a southern country's standards) and its debt isn't enormous (it's only a tad higher than France's). Berlusconi is a threat for Italy, that's why he must be kicked out. At any cost.

I agree with you that the economy is solid, the debt isn't enormous. Both those things don't matter now. A speculative attack has already started on Italy, and when you face a speculative attack, it doesn't matter how strong you are, you will fall. The financial analysts, economists and everybody else aren't telling the full picture. Italy's fate will be determined in Brussels and Berlin, the only question being decided by this election is who will take the blame will the disaster almost inevitably strikes.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2011, 03:38:20 pm »
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I agree with you that the economy is solid, the debt isn't enormous. Both those things don't matter now. A speculative attack has already started on Italy, and when you face a speculative attack, it doesn't matter how strong you are, you will fall. The financial analysts, economists and everybody else aren't telling the full picture. Italy's fate will be determined in Brussels and Berlin, the only question being decided by this election is who will take the blame will the disaster almost inevitably strikes.

Italy is too big to fail the way Greece did : either European leaders will eventually act in a reasonable way and really pull Italy out of the speculative attack, or the Eurozone is screwed. And with the Eurozone, all what was left of economic prosperity to western Europe.

I like to think people won't be that stupid.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2011, 05:34:25 pm »
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What the EU leaders want is to kill socialdemocracy in Europe... Greece, Portugal (has someone heard something about them after Socrates resignation?) and Spain.
Zapatero managed to calm down the "European Wall Street" but the right will win here because people still think ZP created the global crisis (it's not easy to survive with 21% of unemployment).

Hopefully, the left wins in France, Italy and Germany. The right, lead by Merkel, is beginning to act like if they were dictators.
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2011, 05:52:44 pm »
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i'm not at all certain that left will win next italian election....they have no software-ideas since a long time, berlu keep a lot of fans, and far-left become more weak every year


I'm afraid than the destiny of the future government will depends of little center-party, christian-democrats and Fini fan club....
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2011, 04:44:56 am »
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Meanwhile, tons of people have protested Berlusconi yesterday in Rome:



Italian opposition in mass anti-Berlusconi rally

By Francoise Kadri (AFP)

ROME Italy's opposition turned out en masse on the streets of Rome Saturday to demand Silvio Berlusconi's resignation, accusing the prime minister of dragging the country into bankruptcy and global shame.

But the 75-year-old "Cavaliere", back to his defiant self after returning from Cannes where the G-20 humiliatingly placed Italy's economy under surveillance, tried to dispel mounting speculation he could step aside.

With "Silvio out!" as a rallying cry, tens of thousands of people heeded the call by the main left-wing Democratic Party and rallied to pile pressure on Berlusconi.

Energised by the large turnout, Democratic Party boss Pier Luigi Bersani blamed Berlusconi for Italy's financial woes and joined a growing chorus demanding early elections.

"Italy is on the most exposed side of the crisis because of an incompetent and discredited government," he said after singing the Italian anthem with a crowd all in the national colours of green, white and red.

"For the country's reconstruction, we urge Italians to put us to the test government and we will show them that we can be a reform party," he said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g1Dubpy1RPyWxqB03EmP3RwimJZg?docId=CNG.304ee28a60a3232c039551a92c958268.521
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Andrea
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2011, 05:57:52 am »
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The PD rally didn't get the expected attention by the media because of the tragic news coming from Genova (flood killed 6 people). And some of its coverage was also "obscured" by the tensions between Renzi (mayor of Firenze who criticized the PD leadership last week) and some of the activists there.

PdL seems about to lose some other MPs...but knowing them, they seem to leave and come back every minute...

Casini is asking for a big "all together" government instead of fresh elections.
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2011, 06:31:17 am »
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I like to think people won't be that stupid.
If they let Greece fail, the rest of the EU probably won't have the power and authority to prevent anyone else from failing too.
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2011, 04:58:32 pm »
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Meanwhile, tons of people have protested Berlusconi yesterday in Rome


They make antiberlusconi protest marchs since 1994 (mrgreen smiley, don't find the code)
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