AZ: Rocky Mountain: Arizona competetive next year

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona President by Rocky Mountain on 2011-10-23

Summary: D: 45%, R: 38%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

45-38 Obama/Cain
45-40 Obama/Romney
44-38 Obama/Perry

[SufferedMore ThanJesus]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

[Governor Scott]

Dayum.

[Invisible Obama]

Well, this will not set well with some posters. Countdown to meltdown....

[Fuzzy]

Dayum.

[FloridaRepublican]

Is this legit?

[Tender Branson]

The Rocky Mountain poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center, is similar to the Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania. It doesn't really push the leaners, but in general is really accurate:

2010 Governor: Brewer+11, Brewer won by 12

2008 President: McCain+11, McCain won by 9

http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-II-01.pdf

2004 President: Bush+10, Bush won by 10

http://www.brcpolls.com/04/RMP2004-IV-04.pdf

2000 President: Bush+3, Bush won by 6

http://www.brcpolls.com/00/RMP2000IV01.pdf

[oakvale]

I'd imagine the vast majority of the undecideds lean GOP, but that's still very impressive.

[Devils30]

Look at the demographics of Arizona, no reason not to expect it to be competitive in the future. The % of conservatives is along the lines of FL, NC.
 From the 08 exit polls, McCain won much larger numbers of "moderates" and "liberals" in AZ than he did nationwide. Without the home state effect Obama probably wins it with 50-51%.

[NVGonzalez]

Dayum.

[greenforest32]

We've known this was coming. Arizona is the next Colorado/Nevada.

Texas will be interesting in the 2020s.

[Lief]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Um...

[TXMichael]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Yes...

A landslide where Romney can't even break 50% in a state the Democrats have only won once since the 1950s

[redcommander]

Obama's not winning the state. End of story.

[oakvale]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Um...

Fear not, sofaken's actually a (rather good) parody of Politico.

[Secretary Polnut]

Obama's not winning the state. End of story.

I doubt he'd win either, but if Obama made it really competitive... it would still be a great sign for the Dems in AZ for the future.

[Devils30]

Romney is probably the  favorite there but Obama can certainly beat Perry, Cain and the rest of those clowns in AZ.

[Likely Voter]

The DNC is currently running anti-Romney ads in AZ http://youtu.be/_StbXsU34Os

maybe is is having an effect, but clearly their internal numbers show that AZ can be competitive.

[Nichlemn]

Given other polling consistently has Romney neck and neck with Obama in many states much more Democratic than AZ in 2008, this seems like it might be an outlier. Yes, McCain's no longer on the ballot, but the favourite son effect doesn't tend to be that large. And if Obama was just dominating in the West in general we'd expect to see him polling a lot better in Nevada. I would not be surprised if Obama won Arizona but would be if he did so while losing or only barely winning.

[Sam Spade]

The Rocky Mountain poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center, is similar to the Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania. It doesn't really push the leaners, but in general is really accurate:

Let's analyze...

2010 Governor: Brewer+11, Brewer won by 12

Their RV poll had Brewer up by 3, LV poll was Brewer up by 11, which should probably say something about screening process.  It was conducted from October 1-10, so it is, at least somewhat fresh.

The poll for Senate had McCain up 28, he won by 24.  The poll for Attorney General was once again tied among RV, with Horne up by 4 in the LV poll.  Horne won by 4.

2008 President: McCain+11, McCain won by 9

http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-II-01.pdf

That poll is from May 2008.  Which is way too old to be using in judging a polling company's performance.

Even though you didn't bring up 2006, their last poll was equally ancient, July 2006.

2004 President: Bush+10, Bush won by 10

http://www.brcpolls.com/04/RMP2004-IV-04.pdf

Conducted October 5-October 14, so mildly fresh, at least, like 2010.

You missed 2002, where they conducted a weekly poll of the Governor's race every week up to the election.  The last iteration had Napolitano up by 9 among RV and 10 among LV (ok...).  She won by 1 point, though this was a strong third-party race, and therefore more difficult to poll.

2000 President: Bush+3, Bush won by 6

http://www.brcpolls.com/00/RMP2000IV01.pdf

Only 1 point lead among RV, the 3-point was among LV.  Conducted between October 4 and 6, so somewhat fresh, as before.

[pbrower2a]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Yes...

A landslide where Romney can't even break 50% in a state the Democrats have only won once since the 1950s

Bill Clinton won the state (barely) in 1996.  Goldwater barely won the state, and probably only because he was from Arizona. President Obama lost the state by less than the usual advantage (about 10%) for a state with a Favorite Son. That advantage not  only appears with a Favorite Son but also disappears in the next election when the Favorite Son disappears.  Look at the difference between Texas in 2004 and 2008 --- about a 10% gain for the Democrats even if they still lost the state decisively.

As a candidate, Barack Obama did not campaign in Arizona. Based on the slight McCain margin in  2008, Arizona looks like a legitimate swing state in 2012. Count on the President campaigning in Arizona this time, if only to aid the Democratic candidate for an open Senate seat.

President Obama stands to win a Clinton-scale victory (roughly 375 electoral votes) if he wins Arizona, which is consistent with him getting 53% of the popular vote -- which I don't see happening yet.

I am unfamiliar with Rocky Mountain Polling, but CNN seems to have no problem with it. I'd like to see corroboration. This could be a post-Qaddafi bounce, so it might not stick.

[Nichlemn]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Yes...

A landslide where Romney can't even break 50% in a state the Democrats have only won once since the 1950s

Bill Clinton won the state (barely) in 1996.  Goldwater barely won the state, and probably only because he was from Arizona. President Obama lost the state by less than the usual advantage (about 10%) for a state with a Favorite Son. That advantage not  only appears with a Favorite Son but also disappears in the next election when the Favorite Son disappears.  Look at the difference between Texas in 2004 and 2008 --- about a 10% gain for the Democrats even if they still lost the state decisively.

As a candidate, Barack Obama did not campaign in Arizona. Based on the slight McCain margin in  2008, Arizona looks like a legitimate swing state in 2012. Count on the President campaigning in Arizona this time, if only to aid the Democratic candidate for an open Senate seat.

President Obama stands to win a Clinton-scale victory (roughly 375 electoral votes) if he wins Arizona, which is consistent with him getting 53% of the popular vote -- which I don't see happening yet.

I am unfamiliar with Rocky Mountain Polling, but CNN seems to have no problem with it. I'd like to see corroboration. This could be a post-Qaddafi bounce, so it might not stick.

That didn't adjust for the national swing. The trend from 04 to 08 in Texas was 1.38% towards the Democrats - a trivial amount smaller than NH or PA's Republican trends that most people don't even realise happened. That's not to say that Bush's home state advantage was small or non-existent, just that there lots of other factors involved so it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much the home state advantage was.

[pbrower2a]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Yes...

A landslide where Romney can't even break 50% in a state the Democrats have only won once since the 1950s

Bill Clinton won the state (barely) in 1996.  Goldwater barely won the state, and probably only because he was from Arizona. President Obama lost the state by less than the usual advantage (about 10%) for a state with a Favorite Son. That advantage not  only appears with a Favorite Son but also disappears in the next election when the Favorite Son disappears.  Look at the difference between Texas in 2004 and 2008 --- about a 10% gain for the Democrats even if they still lost the state decisively.

As a candidate, Barack Obama did not campaign in Arizona. Based on the slight McCain margin in  2008, Arizona looks like a legitimate swing state in 2012. Count on the President campaigning in Arizona this time, if only to aid the Democratic candidate for an open Senate seat.

President Obama stands to win a Clinton-scale victory (roughly 375 electoral votes) if he wins Arizona, which is consistent with him getting 53% of the popular vote -- which I don't see happening yet.

I am unfamiliar with Rocky Mountain Polling, but CNN seems to have no problem with it. I'd like to see corroboration. This could be a post-Qaddafi bounce, so it might not stick.

That didn't adjust for the national swing. The trend from 04 to 08 in Texas was 1.38% towards the Democrats - a trivial amount smaller than NH or PA's Republican trends that most people don't even realise happened. That's not to say that Bush's home state advantage was small or non-existent, just that there lots of other factors involved so it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much the home state advantage was.

The 10% is an estimate. I did notice that Barack Obama won Massachusetts om 2008  by a larger margin than did John Kerry in 2004. That is a max-out scenario that seems to be an exception. In other situations I saw much the same with McGovern, of all people, in 1972; although he lost the state it was uncharacteristically one of his strongest.  It could be more or less. Obama gained 14% from Kerry between 2004 and 2008.

 It applies only when it isn't negated (1920, when both Presidential candidates were from Ohio) and when the candidate is seen sympathetically. Santorum would do badly against Obama in Pennsylvania -- probably as badly as McCain did in 2008. It could be that opposing  campaigns don't challenge Favorite Sons in their own states.

[Governor Scott]

Pretty great numbers for Romney.   Once Romney starts airing attack ads here on how Obama is soft on illegal aliens, it's game over for 0bama.   It will be a Romney landslide of 1964 epic proportions.   GO MITT!

Um...

Fear not, sofaken's actually a (rather good) parody of Politico.

It is Politico.  He's just doing this for attention.