Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 04, 2016, 10:01:16 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | |-+  Guess Louisiana's runoff election
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Guess Louisiana's runoff election
Vitter wins in the first round.
Vitter wins against Edwards in the second round.
Vitter wins against another Republican in the second round.
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: Guess Louisiana's runoff election  (Read 5392 times)
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1649
United States
View Profile
« on: May 01, 2015, 09:17:06 am »
Ignore

Now that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has refused to retake the Governor's Mansion (which I think was a big, big mistake) David Vitter is likely to become Jindal's successor.

Logged

Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 10:21:42 am »
Ignore

I'd say we're at a 60% chance of a Vitter win and a 40% chance of a Dardenne win. I just don't see a path for Edwards, though I'm waiting for additional polling before I move the race over to Safe R. Angelle doesn't have a path to victory, period.
Logged

2016 Presidential Odds - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OKC1m79QlrW3MSKXKxW4Ms-goKoDHlqsdfHJCWfEExA

#NEVERTRUMP

Clinton = Obama 2.0
TRUMP = HITLER 2.0

Downballot ratings will return soon.
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22113
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -7.65


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2015, 05:22:51 pm »
Ignore

I mean, maybe if Dardenne made the run-off he'd have a chance. But it looks like he's going to get a very very distant third place in the jungle primary, and Edwards obviously loses to Vitter. That being said, it probably will go to a second round.
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18703
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -0.35


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2015, 06:36:51 pm »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter but there's no chance he wins outright.
Logged



ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13321
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2015, 01:47:59 am »
Ignore

Vitter in runoff with Edwards.
Logged

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

2016 Endorsements

President: Gary Johnson (L)
Senate: Uncommitted (Likely L)
House: Uncommitted (Likely L)
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2157
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2015, 03:00:21 am »
Ignore

Vitter in runoff with Edwards.

The same. Edwards as lone Democratic candidate (at least serious) will, most likely, get into runoff, and Dardenne and Angele - win enough votes to force run-off, but Vitter will win. By present day Louisiana standards he (Vitter) is even not especially conservative...
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15051
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2015, 08:09:07 am »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2157
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2015, 11:51:00 am »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.

You - may be. But not people of Louisiana.
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15051
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2015, 12:53:32 pm »
Ignore

Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2157
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2015, 01:25:05 pm »
Ignore

Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.

IMHO, Jindal is even more polarizing. But race is really at least Likely R. May be the best solution for Democrats in this situation would be not to run their candidate at all and tacitly endorse Dardenne. He could beat Vitter in 1-1 race, and is a pragmatic conservative (probably the best we can expect from Louisiana in statewide race for now). But right now he, most likely, will not get into run-off.
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22113
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -7.65


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2015, 01:55:27 pm »
Ignore

Unlike Jindal (who is at 30% approval in a deeply Republican state) and Foster (who won David Duke's endorsement), yes, I agree, David Vitter is totally polarizing.

Who is feeding you lines, your dog?
Logged

badgate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5413


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2015, 07:14:25 pm »
Ignore

Who is "Edwards"?
Logged

Political Matrix Score
Economic: -6.32
Social: -4.17

"Hubert Humphrey must not have been considered very fun either."-Gilmore Girls
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22113
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -7.65


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2015, 07:28:47 pm »
Ignore

Who is "Edwards"?

John Bel Edwards, the Democratic candidate for Governor
Logged

TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8719
Nepal


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2015, 07:52:21 pm »
Ignore

Option 2
Logged

Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74

Quote
I can't for the life of me imagine that God would say, 'I will punish you because you are black; you should have been white. I will punish you because you are a woman; you should have been a man. I punish you because you are homosexual; you ought to have been heterosexual. I can't, I can't for the life of me believe that that is how God sees things.
-Archbishop Desmond Tutu
Adam T
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1741
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2015, 04:15:26 pm »
Ignore

I predict John Bel Edwards will pull out a narrow win over Diaper Dave.
Logged



"Sex is like voting for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders. It may feel good at the time, but it can just lead to a whole load of problems later on."  I said that.
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4491
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 06:46:24 pm »
Ignore

Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.
Logged

Sorry Hillary, but it's over between us.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18703
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -0.35


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 07:13:45 pm »
Ignore

^ You forgot about Angelle...
Logged



Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22113
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -7.65


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 08:00:38 pm »
Ignore

Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.

Friendly advice: please go to wikipedia BEFORE you come out with some bold prediction.
Logged

Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 08:08:41 pm »
Ignore

^ You forgot about Angelle...
Angelle will only get like 7% though.
Logged

2016 Presidential Odds - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OKC1m79QlrW3MSKXKxW4Ms-goKoDHlqsdfHJCWfEExA

#NEVERTRUMP

Clinton = Obama 2.0
TRUMP = HITLER 2.0

Downballot ratings will return soon.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines