Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2015, 01:19:16 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: J Rpblc)
| | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] Print
Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD  (Read 6156 times)
shua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13218
Nepal


View Profile WWW
« Reply #75 on: March 21, 2015, 01:26:50 am »
Ignore

^ The hard R Little Rock suburbs are also bleeding into CD1, compounded with a D crash in the rural white vote.

It still of interest to me why this crash occurred exactly now? Not in 1964, not in 1972, not even in 1994 or 2000. For decades, not years, conservative Arkansas rural white Democratic voters were content to send similar conservative Democrats to legislature, and, somewhat more moderate - to Washington (and they were not alone - in many parts of rural South we see similar dynamics). Then, suddenly - ..... I understand that for many southern rural whites Obama is an "anathema": "northern black urban elitist with outstanding education and connections", but is it "per se" enough?

It is a long-term trend that has been accelerated a bit.  You had Clinton/gore in the nineties - which allowed for Democrats to be strong in Arkansas, but there was something of a turn to the Republicans in the South in 1994. Then the Democrats were in opposition in the Bush years, in which case the Democrats in the South and rural areas had more of a chance to promote their own identity rather than be identified with a President or a set of national policies - this was especially the case in 2006. But the growth in Southern Democrat presence in 2006 only partially reversed the ground they'd lost in the past decade. The backlash against Obama and the national Democratic party in 2010-2014 meant that there were fewer Blue Dogs in Congress, which compounded to make it even harder for Democrats due to a lack of presence in leadership in the region.
Logged

smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1293
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #76 on: March 21, 2015, 04:08:22 am »
Ignore

Agree. But this backlash of 2010 - 2014 was extremely strong. Which role Obama's personality (not politics) played as part of that process? After all - his politics is not so different from those of Clinton, but personalities differ tremendously..
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17241
United States


View Profile
« Reply #77 on: March 21, 2015, 02:05:09 pm »
Ignore

^ Obama is the opposite the good ol' boy types of Democrats the south was used to. That pretty much sums it up. Combine that with what shua said, and your 6th year midterm, and that explains a lot of it.
Logged


smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1293
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2015, 02:22:14 pm »
Ignore

Well, my "suspicions" are confirmed)))
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines