Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 01, 2014, 03:27:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  KS: Paul Davis addresses strip club incident
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: KS: Paul Davis addresses strip club incident  (Read 1698 times)
Ectoplasm X
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9439
United States


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: September 21, 2014, 12:13:21 pm »
Ignore

Why did that guy even call 911 on FitzGerald? That's what I never understood. It wasn't even remotely an emergency.

I don't know, but does it really matter?  I'm not saying I would've called the police, but I can sorta understand why someone might if the lot was private property.

quote author=IceSpear link=topic=199064.msg4308353#msg4308353 date=1411317059]
Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left Tongue

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

Agreed with most of this, but I take issue with 2 and 7. The only evidence which contradicted FitzGerald's version of events was the word of the 911 caller, who easily could've been mistaken or going based solely off assumptions. Just being in a parked car with a woman does not guarantee you're having sex with them. As for 7, I doubt this will effect the race in any way.  If Davis was married at the time, of course, it would be a different story.
[/quote]

Regarding 2, if a man is in a car at 4:00 in the morning in an empty parking lot with a woman who isn't his wife and the person who called the police thought it looked like the man and woman were having sex, what's more likely?  That the man was having an affair or that the woman got lost at 4:00 AM and the man (who also doesn't have a driver's license Tongue ) was helping her find the rest of her group who were at some event at 4:00 AM?  I'd say the former and that's FitzGerald's problem (well...one of them Tongue ): At this point, even if by some freak chance he's telling the truth about that part, the whole thing looks so bad that no one is gonna believe him anyway and that's really what matters here.  Beyond which, the worst thing wasn't the affair, it was the way he tried to hide behind his son's cancer and raise money off it.  Even as far as U.S. politics goes, that was exceptionally sleazy. 

Regarding 7, I think you may've misunderstood what I meant.  I was saying even in the worst case scenario, I can't see the Davis thing doing more than making it toss-up tilt-R.  I personally think the strip club thing moves it from lean-D to pure tossup, but it could easily go right back to lean-D if the next couple of polls show this having had no effect.  My concern is that there are a lot of Republicans who were planning to hold their noses and vote for Davis because they hate Brownback, but are still looking for any excuse to vote against the Democrat.  Kansas being Kansas, this is something that could serve as an excuse to rationalize voting for Brownback or even simply the Libertarian.  Fortunately, I suspect most of the Republicans who would be angriest about this sort of thing are probably already in the Brownback camp, but I could easily see some moderate female Republican voters voting Libertarian over this.  The issue is really that (to oversimplify things a bit) Democrats win in Kansas if they do everything right and the Republican does everything wrong.  That's basically why Brownback and Kobach are in danger.  The Senate race is a freak occurrence and basically uncharted territory.  I'm less confident about Kobach losing because while he's basically done everything wrong, I don't know if his opponent has done everything right or not.  Davis has been running a top-notch campaign, it isn't enough that Brownback's policies were FUBAR.
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile
« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2014, 01:24:25 pm »
Ignore

Why did that guy even call 911 on FitzGerald? That's what I never understood. It wasn't even remotely an emergency.

I don't know, but does it really matter?  I'm not saying I would've called the police, but I can sorta understand why someone might if the lot was private property.

Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left Tongue

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

Agreed with most of this, but I take issue with 2 and 7. The only evidence which contradicted FitzGerald's version of events was the word of the 911 caller, who easily could've been mistaken or going based solely off assumptions. Just being in a parked car with a woman does not guarantee you're having sex with them. As for 7, I doubt this will effect the race in any way.  If Davis was married at the time, of course, it would be a different story.

Regarding 2, if a man is in a car at 4:00 in the morning in an empty parking lot with a woman who isn't his wife and the person who called the police thought it looked like the man and woman were having sex, what's more likely?  That the man was having an affair or that the woman got lost at 4:00 AM and the man (who also doesn't have a driver's license Tongue ) was helping her find the rest of her group who were at some event at 4:00 AM?  I'd say the former and that's FitzGerald's problem (well...one of them Tongue ): At this point, even if by some freak chance he's telling the truth about that part, the whole thing looks so bad that no one is gonna believe him anyway and that's really what matters here.  Beyond which, the worst thing wasn't the affair, it was the way he tried to hide behind his son's cancer and raise money off it.  Even as far as U.S. politics goes, that was exceptionally sleazy. 

Regarding 7, I think you may've misunderstood what I meant.  I was saying even in the worst case scenario, I can't see the Davis thing doing more than making it toss-up tilt-R.  I personally think the strip club thing moves it from lean-D to pure tossup, but it could easily go right back to lean-D if the next couple of polls show this having had no effect.  My concern is that there are a lot of Republicans who were planning to hold their noses and vote for Davis because they hate Brownback, but are still looking for any excuse to vote against the Democrat.  Kansas being Kansas, this is something that could serve as an excuse to rationalize voting for Brownback or even simply the Libertarian.  Fortunately, I suspect most of the Republicans who would be angriest about this sort of thing are probably already in the Brownback camp, but I could easily see some moderate female Republican voters voting Libertarian over this.  The issue is really that (to oversimplify things a bit) Democrats win in Kansas if they do everything right and the Republican does everything wrong.  That's basically why Brownback and Kobach are in danger.  The Senate race is a freak occurrence and basically uncharted territory.  I'm less confident about Kobach losing because while he's basically done everything wrong, I don't know if his opponent has done everything right or not.  Davis has been running a top-notch campaign, it isn't enough that Brownback's policies were FUBAR.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it isn't fishy. But it's not like he got caught tweeting his dick or had his number in the DC Madam's phonebook. It was never confirmed and he definitely has plausible deniability. Besides, the fact that FitzGerald is a complete and utter prude (passing a polygraph where he said he never smoked weed or drank alcohol once) makes me believe him a bit more than I would believe a typical politician. Obviously there was no excuse for the driver's license thing or the fundraising letter.

Fair enough on Kansas, but I'm skeptical it will even have a slight effect in the polls. I guess we'll see soon enough.
Logged


ilikeverin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15500
Timor-Leste


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2014, 09:21:52 pm »
Ignore

fwiw, polygraphs are ridiculously unreliable and should not be treated as anything more useful than, say, handwriting analysis.
Logged

Chief Judicial Officer of the Most Serene Republic of the Midwest, registered in the State of Joy, in Atlasia
Recognized National Treasure of Atlasia
Oldiesfreak1854
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8815
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2014, 08:28:59 pm »
Ignore

Perfect time for a Brownback resurgence.
Logged

Quote from: Dwight D. Eisenhower
There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of her citizens cannot cure.
When I voted for the first time a few weeks ago, I announced "damnit, I voted for Pat Buchanan!" Nobody got it.
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile
« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2014, 09:06:06 pm »
Ignore

Perfect time for a Brownback resurgence.

Logged


IDS Speaker Flo
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6114
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

P P P
View Profile WWW
« Reply #30 on: September 22, 2014, 09:09:24 pm »
Ignore


b/c you obv. can't go against your party even if its a extreme right wing guv'nah, duh.
Logged

It's That Time of the Month - How Aunt Flo Became Speaker of the House, One Month at a Time

I see your point, and maybe we're debating over semantics, but the fact that about 1 million children are functionally homeless to me is a crisis.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52312


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2014, 09:21:15 pm »
Ignore


I tried to warn you all. I really did. The party will unite.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Bigby
Mod_Libertarian_GOPer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 349
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.45, S: -3.57

View Profile
« Reply #32 on: September 24, 2014, 02:53:58 am »
Ignore

At least he's a playa.

Paul Davis for Kansas Secretary of Pimpin' 2016.
Logged

Mechaman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14144
Jamaica


View Profile
« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2014, 07:45:42 am »
Ignore

Why did that guy even call 911 on FitzGerald? That's what I never understood. It wasn't even remotely an emergency.

I don't know, but does it really matter?  I'm not saying I would've called the police, but I can sorta understand why someone might if the lot was private property.

Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left Tongue

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

Agreed with most of this, but I take issue with 2 and 7. The only evidence which contradicted FitzGerald's version of events was the word of the 911 caller, who easily could've been mistaken or going based solely off assumptions. Just being in a parked car with a woman does not guarantee you're having sex with them. As for 7, I doubt this will effect the race in any way.  If Davis was married at the time, of course, it would be a different story.

Regarding 2, if a man is in a car at 4:00 in the morning in an empty parking lot with a woman who isn't his wife and the person who called the police thought it looked like the man and woman were having sex, what's more likely?  That the man was having an affair or that the woman got lost at 4:00 AM and the man (who also doesn't have a driver's license Tongue ) was helping her find the rest of her group who were at some event at 4:00 AM?  I'd say the former and that's FitzGerald's problem (well...one of them Tongue ): At this point, even if by some freak chance he's telling the truth about that part, the whole thing looks so bad that no one is gonna believe him anyway and that's really what matters here.  Beyond which, the worst thing wasn't the affair, it was the way he tried to hide behind his son's cancer and raise money off it.  Even as far as U.S. politics goes, that was exceptionally sleazy. 

Regarding 7, I think you may've misunderstood what I meant.  I was saying even in the worst case scenario, I can't see the Davis thing doing more than making it toss-up tilt-R.  I personally think the strip club thing moves it from lean-D to pure tossup, but it could easily go right back to lean-D if the next couple of polls show this having had no effect.  My concern is that there are a lot of Republicans who were planning to hold their noses and vote for Davis because they hate Brownback, but are still looking for any excuse to vote against the Democrat.  Kansas being Kansas, this is something that could serve as an excuse to rationalize voting for Brownback or even simply the Libertarian.  Fortunately, I suspect most of the Republicans who would be angriest about this sort of thing are probably already in the Brownback camp, but I could easily see some moderate female Republican voters voting Libertarian over this.  The issue is really that (to oversimplify things a bit) Democrats win in Kansas if they do everything right and the Republican does everything wrong.  That's basically why Brownback and Kobach are in danger.  The Senate race is a freak occurrence and basically uncharted territory.  I'm less confident about Kobach losing because while he's basically done everything wrong, I don't know if his opponent has done everything right or not.  Davis has been running a top-notch campaign, it isn't enough that Brownback's policies were FUBAR.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it isn't fishy. But it's not like he got caught tweeting his dick or had his number in the DC Madam's phonebook. It was never confirmed and he definitely has plausible deniability. Besides, the fact that FitzGerald is a complete and utter prude (passing a polygraph where he said he never smoked weed or drank alcohol once) makes me believe him a bit more than I would believe a typical politician. Obviously there was no excuse for the driver's license thing or the fundraising letter.

Fair enough on Kansas, but I'm skeptical it will even have a slight effect in the polls. I guess we'll see soon enough.

Yeah this is one of the times on this forum that I completely agree with IceSpear on an issue.

Keep in mind that the woman in question was a member of a delegation from County Mayo, Ireland and that they had just left a bar or something.  Sure, it is a bit weird why someone would be out drinking this late, but they're also Irish.  Anyways, Fitz only knew this woman from a few times before from hosting the Mayo Society or whatever it is called.  While one night stands and sex at first sight is not exactly a rare phenomena, FitzGerald's admittance of not having done any substances makes me think that he's too prudeblooded to even consider it.
Even Fundie Baptists have enough pride in their manhood to admit they had a few beers once or twice.

Really, if Ed Fitz did not boff the wasted little colleen. .. ..  that's a real crime.
Logged



17:20   bore   the point of atlasia is to achieve things which you can then use as pick up lines
Wolverine22
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
United States


View Profile
« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2014, 12:52:10 pm »
Ignore

While Brownback is busy bashing Paul Davis over a lap dance, his administration is too busy auctioning off sex toys to try and fill the budget hole.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 12:56:08 pm by Wolverine22 »Logged

IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile
« Reply #35 on: September 29, 2014, 08:22:41 pm »
Ignore

While Brownback is busy bashing Paul Davis over a lap dance, his administration is too busy auctioning off sex toys to try and fill the budget hole.

LOL

This must be the "Boehner" solution to fixing the deficit.
Logged


Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines