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| | |-+  Guess Louisiana's runoff election
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Question: Guess Louisiana's runoff election
Vitter wins in the first round.
Vitter wins against Edwards in the second round.
Vitter wins against another Republican in the second round.
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Author Topic: Guess Louisiana's runoff election  (Read 5237 times)
solarstorm
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« on: May 01, 2015, 09:17:06 am »
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Now that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has refused to retake the Governor's Mansion (which I think was a big, big mistake) David Vitter is likely to become Jindal's successor.

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Wulfric
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 10:21:42 am »
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I'd say we're at a 60% chance of a Vitter win and a 40% chance of a Dardenne win. I just don't see a path for Edwards, though I'm waiting for additional polling before I move the race over to Safe R. Angelle doesn't have a path to victory, period.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2015, 05:22:51 pm »
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I mean, maybe if Dardenne made the run-off he'd have a chance. But it looks like he's going to get a very very distant third place in the jungle primary, and Edwards obviously loses to Vitter. That being said, it probably will go to a second round.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2015, 06:36:51 pm »
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Sigh, Vitter but there's no chance he wins outright.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2015, 01:47:59 am »
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Vitter in runoff with Edwards.
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My primary/caucus ratings

South Carolina (R): Likely Trump
South Carolina (D): Safe Clinton

Nevada (R): Lean Trump
Nevada (D): Lean Clinton

Chance of winning

South Carolina (R): 70% Trump, 20% Cruz, 10% Field
South Carolina (D): 99% Clinton, 1% Sanders

Nevada (R): 60% Trump, 20% Cruz, 5% Rubio, 5% Kasich, 10% Field
Nevada (D): 60% Clinton, 40% Sanders
smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2015, 03:00:21 am »
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Vitter in runoff with Edwards.

The same. Edwards as lone Democratic candidate (at least serious) will, most likely, get into runoff, and Dardenne and Angele - win enough votes to force run-off, but Vitter will win. By present day Louisiana standards he (Vitter) is even not especially conservative...
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2015, 08:09:07 am »
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Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2015, 11:51:00 am »
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Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.

You - may be. But not people of Louisiana.
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2015, 12:53:32 pm »
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Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2015, 01:25:05 pm »
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Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.

IMHO, Jindal is even more polarizing. But race is really at least Likely R. May be the best solution for Democrats in this situation would be not to run their candidate at all and tacitly endorse Dardenne. He could beat Vitter in 1-1 race, and is a pragmatic conservative (probably the best we can expect from Louisiana in statewide race for now). But right now he, most likely, will not get into run-off.
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2015, 01:55:27 pm »
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Unlike Jindal (who is at 30% approval in a deeply Republican state) and Foster (who won David Duke's endorsement), yes, I agree, David Vitter is totally polarizing.

Who is feeding you lines, your dog?
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badgate
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2015, 07:14:25 pm »
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Who is "Edwards"?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2015, 07:28:47 pm »
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Who is "Edwards"?

John Bel Edwards, the Democratic candidate for Governor
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2015, 07:52:21 pm »
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Option 2
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Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74

Quote
I can't for the life of me imagine that God would say, 'I will punish you because you are black; you should have been white. I will punish you because you are a woman; you should have been a man. I punish you because you are homosexual; you ought to have been heterosexual. I can't, I can't for the life of me believe that that is how God sees things.
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Adam T
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2015, 04:15:26 pm »
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I predict John Bel Edwards will pull out a narrow win over Diaper Dave.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 06:46:24 pm »
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Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.
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Sorry Hillary, but it's over between us.
Miles
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 07:13:45 pm »
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^ You forgot about Angelle...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 08:00:38 pm »
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Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.

Friendly advice: please go to wikipedia BEFORE you come out with some bold prediction.
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Wulfric
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 08:08:41 pm »
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^ You forgot about Angelle...
Angelle will only get like 7% though.
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