Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 29, 2016, 05:12:57 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | |-+  Guess Louisiana's runoff election
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Guess Louisiana's runoff election
Vitter wins in the first round.
Vitter wins against Edwards in the second round.
Vitter wins against another Republican in the second round.
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: Guess Louisiana's runoff election  (Read 5862 times)
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1649
United States
View Profile
« on: May 01, 2015, 09:17:06 am »
Ignore

Now that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has refused to retake the Governor's Mansion (which I think was a big, big mistake) David Vitter is likely to become Jindal's successor.

Logged

Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 10:21:42 am »
Ignore

I'd say we're at a 60% chance of a Vitter win and a 40% chance of a Dardenne win. I just don't see a path for Edwards, though I'm waiting for additional polling before I move the race over to Safe R. Angelle doesn't have a path to victory, period.
Logged

#reelectKirk
#reelectToomey

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(9/21 Change - NC, NH to Toss-Up, AZ to Strong Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb (9/9 Change - IN to Toss-Up)
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64

Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24220
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2015, 05:22:51 pm »
Ignore

I mean, maybe if Dardenne made the run-off he'd have a chance. But it looks like he's going to get a very very distant third place in the jungle primary, and Edwards obviously loses to Vitter. That being said, it probably will go to a second round.
Logged



Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19171
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: 1.39

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2015, 06:36:51 pm »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter but there's no chance he wins outright.
Logged


ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14880
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2015, 01:47:59 am »
Ignore

Vitter in runoff with Edwards.
Logged

Presidential Ratings and Predictions

My Other 2016 Votes

US Senate: Phil Anderson (L)
US House (WI-01): Jason Lebeck (L)

Congressional Endorsements

I Side With...

Gary Johnson: 93%
Evan McMullin: 66%
Darrell Castle: 59%
Jill Stein: 40%
Donald Trump: 31%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2398
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2015, 03:00:21 am »
Ignore

Vitter in runoff with Edwards.

The same. Edwards as lone Democratic candidate (at least serious) will, most likely, get into runoff, and Dardenne and Angele - win enough votes to force run-off, but Vitter will win. By present day Louisiana standards he (Vitter) is even not especially conservative...
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15550
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2015, 08:09:07 am »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2398
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2015, 11:51:00 am »
Ignore

Sigh, Vitter, but there's no chance he wins outright.

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.

You - may be. But not people of Louisiana.
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15550
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2015, 12:53:32 pm »
Ignore

Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2398
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2015, 01:25:05 pm »
Ignore

Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.

IMHO, Jindal is even more polarizing. But race is really at least Likely R. May be the best solution for Democrats in this situation would be not to run their candidate at all and tacitly endorse Dardenne. He could beat Vitter in 1-1 race, and is a pragmatic conservative (probably the best we can expect from Louisiana in statewide race for now). But right now he, most likely, will not get into run-off.
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24220
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2015, 01:55:27 pm »
Ignore

Unlike Jindal (who is at 30% approval in a deeply Republican state) and Foster (who won David Duke's endorsement), yes, I agree, David Vitter is totally polarizing.

Who is feeding you lines, your dog?
Logged



badgate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5414


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2015, 07:14:25 pm »
Ignore

Who is "Edwards"?
Logged

Political Matrix Score
Economic: -6.32
Social: -4.17

"Hubert Humphrey must not have been considered very fun either."-Gilmore Girls
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24220
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2015, 07:28:47 pm »
Ignore

Who is "Edwards"?

John Bel Edwards, the Democratic candidate for Governor
Logged



TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9326
Nepal


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2015, 07:52:21 pm »
Ignore

Option 2
Logged

Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74
Adam T
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2346
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2015, 04:15:26 pm »
Ignore

I predict John Bel Edwards will pull out a narrow win over Diaper Dave.
Logged



"Sex is like voting for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders. It may feel good at the time, but it can just lead to a whole load of problems later on."  I said that.
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4513
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 06:46:24 pm »
Ignore

Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.
Logged

Sorry Hillary, but it's over between us.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19171
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: 1.39

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 07:13:45 pm »
Ignore

^ You forgot about Angelle...
Logged


Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24220
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 08:00:38 pm »
Ignore

Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.

Friendly advice: please go to wikipedia BEFORE you come out with some bold prediction.
Logged



Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 08:08:41 pm »
Ignore

^ You forgot about Angelle...
Angelle will only get like 7% though.
Logged

#reelectKirk
#reelectToomey

2016 House Rating: Strongly Leaning Republican
2016 Senate: http://tinyurl.com/oc3yugb
(9/21 Change - NC, NH to Toss-Up, AZ to Strong Lean R)
2016 Governor: http://tinyurl.com/h8ghczb (9/9 Change - IN to Toss-Up)
2016 President: http://tinyurl.com/zarao64

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines