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| | |-+  How large will Kasich's victory be?
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Author Topic: How large will Kasich's victory be?  (Read 2094 times)
IDS Emperor Maxwell
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« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2014, 08:37:39 pm »
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Let's be real - Fitzgerald never really had a chance.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2014, 08:58:23 pm »
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53-43
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« Reply #27 on: August 06, 2014, 09:14:46 pm »
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10-12 points.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #28 on: August 06, 2014, 09:54:07 pm »
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About 54-44, around a 10 point margin.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2014, 05:58:57 am »
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>2014
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>ISHYGDDT

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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2014, 11:06:34 am »
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+12 for El Cacique.

And Adam will become An hero.
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Lowly Griff
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« Reply #31 on: August 07, 2014, 04:24:52 pm »
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FitzGerald was perfect on paper - absolutely toxic in reality. It's a struggle to find a bigger discrepancy at any point in recent memory.

With increasing polarity infiltrating all races across the country, I find it hard to believe Kasich will get anywhere near 60%. I say 53-43.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #32 on: August 07, 2014, 07:37:52 pm »
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FitzGerald was perfect on paper - absolutely toxic in reality. It's a struggle to find a bigger discrepancy at any point in recent memory.

With increasing polarity infiltrating all races across the country, I find it hard to believe Kasich will get anywhere near 60%. I say 53-43.

That to me, is the key. Fitzgerald to me is the absolute definition of 'generic' not 'Generic D' or 'Generic R'. He's boring and white-bread and basically a goodie two-shoes. "I've never even been drunk!" How cute and how completely disconnected from reality that he think those qualities win elections in mid-term years.

The thing that Adam (not AG, obviously) is missing is that it doesn't matter if the allegations are true. The fact that he put himself in a very precarious position, when by 2012, you'd know if you were intending to run... it shows horrendous judgement.

From one perspective, he might be guilty of personal transgressions that I don't think have any baring on their capacity to do the job, but if anything, the biggest crime is that lack of political instinct and judgement. If you put yourself on a pedestal about how clean and pure you are... you pretty much bring this stuff on yourself.

OH and on the issue of name recognition, suggesting this whole thing is a GOOD thing for that is insane. A person with low-ish name recognition cannot afford their big state-wide reveal to be defending himself against allegations of shenanigans.
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« Reply #33 on: August 09, 2014, 11:30:46 am »
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Kasich will win 55-43

>OP assuming a Kasich win.
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« Reply #34 on: August 09, 2014, 11:48:42 am »
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I'm thinking upper single digits. As some have said, something like 53-45 or 53-44. It will definitely be a larger margin than Michigan or Wisconsin, it might even be on par with Branstad in Iowa.
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« Reply #35 on: August 09, 2014, 08:17:19 pm »
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I'd say anywhere from 4-8 points.
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« Reply #36 on: August 09, 2014, 08:29:34 pm »
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« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2014, 08:31:47 pm »
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Can someone explain why this scandal was so bad? From what I read it didn't seem campaign-ending. Sure, Fitzgerald is a weak candidate and wouldn't have won anyway, but why does this change things so much?
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« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2014, 08:52:50 pm »
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I have a feeling it's not going to be pretty -- closer to 58-42 than 52-48.
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« Reply #39 on: August 20, 2014, 10:21:15 pm »
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I'd say his ceiling is 54% due to polarization and at lowest could pull off a plurality win. I cannot see any scenario with him losing unless something catastrophic happens to him/his campaign between now and November.


Then hopefully we'll see a Kasich Presidency starting in 2017 and lasting until 2025 Smiley
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2014, 10:31:57 am »
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I'd say his ceiling is 54% due to polarization and at lowest could pull off a plurality win. I cannot see any scenario with him losing unless something catastrophic happens to him/his campaign between now and November.


Then hopefully we'll see a Kasich Presidency starting in 2017 and lasting until 2025 Smiley

Dead Kasich still beats live FitzGerald Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2014, 10:51:32 am »
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Edit: updating my prediction from 53/44 to to 58/40.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2014, 11:14:00 am »
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The last poll had Kasich up by only 6 - and that was after the driving "scandal" broke.
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Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2014, 02:20:03 pm »
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Wasn't that poll an internal for the Ohio Democratic Party?

Their poll before that had Kasich +1, so there was a clear shift.
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Badger
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« Reply #44 on: August 24, 2014, 09:23:04 am »
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Low to mid double digits. Fitzgerald has next to no money for ads to counteract whatever the Democrats throw at him. That said, the state is now too polarized, and Kasich too polarizing a figure, for Fitzgerald to go below the low 40's.
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