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Author Topic: Homely's new maps thread  (Read 30232 times)
homelycooking
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« on: October 26, 2011, 06:27:42 pm »
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Magnum opus.

« Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 09:54:54 pm by homelycooking »Logged
greenforest32
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2011, 08:49:34 am »
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It's a bit hard to read even when maximized in a new tab Tongue
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homelycooking
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2011, 09:03:50 am »
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Sorry, there isn't much I can do about that.

All of the maps are in 5% scale, by the way.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2011, 12:12:30 pm »
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Needs 1992/1996 pres primaries. Tongue
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homelycooking
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2011, 12:34:38 pm »
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Needs 1992/1996 pres primaries. Tongue

An official at the Connecticut SOTS office seems to be annoyed with me already for calling her office so many times requesting election results and pointing out mistakes in election reports. I may actually have to go to Hartford sometime soon rather than keep calling and e-mailing.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2011, 01:23:41 pm by homelycooking »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2011, 10:13:45 am »
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Here's a neat map. This is from the election in which Peter Welch faced no Republican opposition. While most of the strength of the individual candidates is due to geographical proximity, some variation is due to cultural difference. The Progressive candidate was from Barre, yet he won Brattleboro and the surrounding towns. Mike Bethel did well along the Connecticut River and Lake Champlain, primarily in towns more likely to vote Republican than Democratic. Most of the towns in Addison, Orange, Essex and Chittenden Counties with no third-party favorite sons featured contests between Trudell and Bethel, the two most moderate candidates, who likely attracted the Republican vote not willing to support Welch.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2011, 07:59:34 pm »

Magnum opus.


Magnificent!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2011, 09:34:58 pm »
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You know you're doing something special when Dave compliments you on it. Smiley Great maps!
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homelycooking
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2011, 11:36:36 pm »
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Here's another map compilation too large for its own (or my own) good.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2011, 10:32:32 pm »
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homelycooking
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2011, 11:29:10 am »
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Lots more uncontested races, and thus lots more seats where calculating a swing makes no sense.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2011, 01:25:14 pm »
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Interesting to see how solid the Democrats' hold on their seats in 2010 was. A lot of close races, but it looks like they lost, what, just that one seat west of Hartford?
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homelycooking
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2011, 02:41:09 pm »
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Interesting to see how solid the Democrats' hold on their seats in 2010 was. A lot of close races, but it looks like they lost, what, just that one seat west of Hartford?

They lost only one seat - District 31 in Bristol - in the entire state. They lost another in a February 2011 special election when Democratic Sen. Gaffey resigned after his criminal conviction. But compare that to 1974 on the map above, when Democrats defeated 8 Republican incumbents and took 8 more Republican-held open seats, taking them from 13 seats to 29 in the 36-member Senate.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2011, 04:20:10 pm »
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Why is eastern CT much more Democratic than western CT?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2011, 04:54:17 pm »
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Why is eastern CT much more Democratic than western CT?

IIRC, western Connecticut has a lot of New York City suburbs and exurbs that tend to be more Republican and wealthier. Eastern Connecticut is more working class like Rhode Island or nearby areas of Massachusetts. I'm sure homely knows more.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2011, 06:21:09 pm »
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Why is eastern CT much more Democratic than western CT?

Fairfield County is easy: rich people live there.

Litchfield County, I guess, is more akin to upstate New York: rural and traditionally Republican.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2011, 06:37:00 pm »
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IIRC, western Connecticut has a lot of New York City suburbs and exurbs that tend to be more Republican and wealthier. Eastern Connecticut is more working class like Rhode Island or nearby areas of Massachusetts. I'm sure homely knows more.

That's reasonably accurate. Keep in mind a basic geographic fact, too: the Connecticut River divides the state along a north-south axis. There are only four road bridges over the river south of Hartford. We also should recognize that Connecticut's east is by no means equal to its west. Only one in four or five Connecticut residents lives east of the river, and a huge majority of the state's economic activity takes place west of it. Of Connecticut's twenty largest cities, only two (Manchester and East Hartford - both satellites of Hartford) lie east of the Connecticut. So from the start, the electoral influence of the east is quite marginal

Prior to 1990, political geography in both the east and west was determined much more by the urban-rural cleavage than by regional factors. Republicans could count on winning numerous rural towns where farming remained the dominant economic activity as a matter of tradition, and Democrats took the old industrial cities, mill towns and small suburban communities.

But then Lowell Weicker was elected. The year 1990 sparked a total transformation of Connecticut's politics, and from looking back to this time, I think I can say that these are the factors that make Eastern CT a more Democratic region:

1. As realistic said, the exurbs and wealthy communities are the principal factor. Wealth is a major factor in politics west of the river, where much of the economic activity is very white-collar. The only communities which could be considered "wealthy" that lie east of the river are Stonington and Old Lyme, both of which pale in comparison to mega-rich Darien, Greenwich and New Canaan.

2. The Republicans have very few figures of statewide renown who live east of the river. Rob Simmons was the only one for a time, but his political efforts met with defeat in '06. Nearly all of them - Rowland, Rell, Johnson, Shays, Foley, McMahon, Orchulli, Debicella, Boughton, etc. - live on the other side, especially in Fairfield and New Haven counties. The current Democratic Lieutenant Governor of CT, on the other hand, is from Tolland; the (Democratic) Secretary of the State is from Mansfield, and the President of the (Democrat-controlled) Senate is from Thompson.

3. The economy is notoriously weak east of the river, and many livelihoods there are dependent not upon private enterprise but public investment. The collapse of the textile industry hit urban communities hard here, and as Connecticut's Republicans became more and more fervently anti-tax, voting for Democrats and for state investment into local industries seemed like an economic necessity. Poor economic conditions have served to unite, in many cases, the minority populations of Connecticut's urban areas with the white populations of decaying mill towns in support for the Democrats.

4. Culture is also very important. Aside from a few localities on the east side of Hartford, the East has very few cities and remains very rural. Huge swaths of land retain their pastoral character - suburban sprawl is surprisingly limited - and residents out in the East want to keep it that way. Sprawl is a major problem west of the river in the periphery of New Haven, the Gold Coast, Hartford and Waterbury, and the Democrats in the state tend to identify with more rigid land-use laws and environmental regulations.

5. Lowell Weicker encouraged many of the small-town, old-style, agrarian Republicans more in line politically with Taft's strain of conservatism than Goldwater's to turn away from the Fairfield County - centric and wealth-fueled politics of Rowland's 1990s Republican coalition. The practice of cross-endorsement by the ACP enabled many Republicans to support Democratic candidates for legislative offices without casting a vote for the Democratic Party and thus wean these voters off of voting Republican. Weicker was helped in no small part in this regard by his support for casino gambling.

Does that help? This is likely going to be a topic, at least in part, of my undergraduate thesis, so I hope it's right! Tongue
« Last Edit: December 03, 2011, 10:38:12 pm by De lelijke keuken »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2011, 06:46:11 pm »
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Litchfield County, I guess, is more akin to upstate New York: rural and traditionally Republican.

In part, yes, but let's be careful: Litchfield actually is home to some of Connecticut's most Democratic towns, and Republican support out there is coming increasingly from large towns than from rural communities. The upper Housatonic is home to many culturally-liberal NYC emigres and resembles Western Massachusetts in its politics: a high support for Nader, a vibrant cultural life in art and music, and (recognition of, respect for and defense of) the area's great scenic beauty.

Torrington, once a reliably Democratic bastion, is increasingly voting Republican. There's a lot of enthusiasm there for the very young, intelligent mayor Ryan Bingham, and the high Italian population there can no longer be counted as solidly Democratic by virtue of ethnic identity or past economic disadvantage. A lot of the other towns which were once, as you said, traditional in their support for agrarianism and old Conservative Republicans, now have many thousands of residents and serve as bedroom communities for the cities just beyond the borders of the county (Hartford, Danbury, Waterbury), etc.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2011, 07:02:14 pm by De lelijke keuken »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2011, 12:27:10 pm »
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Some interesting maps on ethnicity now.

Largest European ethnicity by town, 5% scale above 20, 10% scale below 20 over 10 colours, 50=20:



Green: Italian
Orange: Irish
Yellow: English
Blue: French
Red: Polish (New Britski, of course)

Irish strength by town, 2.5% scale over 15 colours, 50=20:



Italian strength by town, 2.5% scale over 15 colours, 50=20:



« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 04:32:55 pm by De lelijke keuken »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2011, 10:05:21 pm »
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This one surprised me. French strength, 2.5% scale over 15 colors, 50=20:

« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 04:31:58 pm by De lelijke keuken »Logged
Napoleon
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« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2011, 10:21:42 pm »
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Litchfield County, I guess, is more akin to upstate New York: rural and traditionally Republican.

In part, yes, but let's be careful: Litchfield actually is home to some of Connecticut's most Democratic towns, and Republican support out there is coming increasingly from large towns than from rural communities. The upper Housatonic is home to many culturally-liberal NYC emigres and resembles Western Massachusetts in its politics: a high support for Nader, a vibrant cultural life in art and music, and (recognition of, respect for and defense of) the area's great scenic beauty.

Torrington, once a reliably Democratic bastion, is increasingly voting Republican. There's a lot of enthusiasm there for the very young, intelligent mayor Ryan Bingham, and the high Italian population there can no longer be counted as solidly Democratic by virtue of ethnic identity or past economic disadvantage. A lot of the other towns which were once, as you said, traditional in their support for agrarianism and old Conservative Republicans, now have many thousands of residents and serve as bedroom communities for the cities just beyond the borders of the county (Hartford, Danbury, Waterbury), etc.

Litchfield had some of Lamont's best towns. There's a good deal of liberal Democrats, and the anti-war movement got Murphy elected.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2011, 10:26:58 pm »
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Litchfield had some of Lamont's best towns. There's a good deal of liberal Democrats, and the anti-war movement got Murphy elected.

Cornwall: 91% for Lamont in the primary - doesn't get much better than that!
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2011, 07:09:05 am »
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The French presence isn't surprising.
There was a big immigration from Quebec to New England at the end of the 1800's, caused by bad years in agriculture. They moved in new England to work in the factories.

There is many of them too in Rhode Island, Maine and New Hampshire.
Sure, they forgot French language, but that is still visible in family names (i.e. Governor LePage in Maine).
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homelycooking
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2011, 02:44:42 pm »
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You're right, but it's surprising to see a 19th century distribution of French (near the Quinebaug River and its mill towns) so strongly segregated by geography. I would have expected a much more even distribution.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2011, 07:45:37 pm »
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This one took far, far too long to make.

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