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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 161617 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1250 on: July 09, 2016, 06:24:51 pm »
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A rather different picture from Ipsos/MRBI, who have generally been the most accurate pollster over the last decade. Crumb of comfort for Gully, Oakvale and Jas: this one could always be a rogue. Again, changes since the last poll before the election:

FF 33 (+10)
FG 24 (-4)
SF 16 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-6)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 2 (-1)

FWIW, this may be exaggerating real trends - if it was FF 30 FG 27 I'd not be at all surprised by the figures. With them next door having a collective nervous breakdown and the sparks from the burning roof threatening to set our own house on fire, the seeming coolness and competence of Martin may be more attractive than the stiffness of Kenny.

What will be interesting is what effect this poll will have on the nerves of FG backbenchers and the ambition of FG leadership contenders. The last heave against Kenny in 2010 followed an MRBI poll (which in retrospect was probably a rogue) that showed FG behind Labour and set off the "Gilmore for Taoiseach" bandwagon, long ago dismantled for scrap.

Aaanndd on cue, the FG backbenchers begin to get restless.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1251 on: July 16, 2016, 06:18:47 pm »
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Two more polls this weekend to confirm FG backbench jitters:

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+5)
FG 25 (-1)
SF 14 (-3)
Ind/Oth 12 (-3)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (+1)
WP 3 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)

The forward march of Stalinism continues unabated down at the bottom of the polls.

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 29 (+3)
FG 26 (-)
SF 13 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-3)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (-)
SD 4 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
Renua 1 (+1)

I think it's safe to assume that FF are now back as the largest party, causing latte liberals and carpet-chewing conspiracy theorists alike to froth at the mouth. A cynic might note that FF are having more success in putting manners on FG while in opposition than Labour had for five years in government.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 07:27:21 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Kevinstat
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« Reply #1252 on: July 20, 2016, 06:42:55 pm »
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(Republic of) Ireland constituency review 2016-17 (a thread I've started that folks visiting this thread might be interested in)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1253 on: July 29, 2016, 07:20:19 pm »
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RedC for Paddy Power:

FF 28 (-1)
FG 27 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
SF 15 (+2)
Lab 4 (-2)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
SD 3 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 07:22:09 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Cassius
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« Reply #1254 on: September 02, 2016, 08:05:25 am »
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Noonan

Assuming it hasn't been removed, someone is evidently unhappy about Finance Minister Michael Noonan' stance on this Apple tax business.
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'The greatest thing that could happen to the state and the nation is when we get rid of all the media... then we could all live in peace and tranquillity and no one would know anything'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1255 on: September 05, 2016, 08:48:21 am »
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Stephen Donnelly walks away from the Social Democrats.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1256 on: September 17, 2016, 07:38:45 pm »
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Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-2)
FG 23 (-2)
SF 18 (+4)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
WP 1 (-2)
Renua 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1257 on: September 24, 2016, 04:52:35 pm »
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RedC for the Sunday Business Post (changes since the Paddy Power poll):

FF 27 (-1)
FG 25 (-2)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 7 (+3)
SP/SWP 6 (+2)
SD 4 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1258 on: October 06, 2016, 11:07:08 am »
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Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 26 (+2)
FF 26 (-7)
SF 19 (+3)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 3 (-1)
SD 2 (-)

The big "drop" for FF is almost certainly a reversion to the mean from the freakishly high figure last time. But it may have the effect of reassuring nerves in FG and easing the pressure on Kenny to depart over the next few months.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1259 on: October 15, 2016, 06:24:13 pm »
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Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+2)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 17 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
Lab 5 (-2)
WP 3 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-2)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)
SD 0 (-1)

WP and Renua figures beyond belief.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1260 on: October 22, 2016, 07:38:03 pm »
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IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 29 (-1)
FF 27 (+1)
SF 20 (-)
Lab 8 (+1)
Ind/Oth 8 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1261 on: October 29, 2016, 12:27:36 pm »
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RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (-1)
FG 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
SF 13 (-2)
SP/SWP 9 (+3)
Lab 5 (-2)
SD 3 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)

We are, apparently, marching in unison behind the Trotskyist vanguards (at least until the vanguards open fire on each other). Colour me skeptical.
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Green Line
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« Reply #1262 on: October 29, 2016, 02:15:16 pm »
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Ireland needs electoral reform.  The current system is getting ridiculous with all these independents and little Trotsky parties. 
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1263 on: October 29, 2016, 07:34:18 pm »
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Ireland needs electoral reform.  The current system is getting ridiculous with all these independents and little Trotsky parties.  

We have an effective quota of 10-12% per electoral district to get a seat. The fragmentation is a consequence of the three traditional parties successively discrediting themselves, not its cause. And while I despise the cynical nihilism of the Trots and despair at some of the independents, at least it means that resentment isn't getting channeled into a Fronta Náisiúnta or an Éirí Órga.

(Besides, the 9% is almost certainly a rogue to begin with. 5% or 6% would be just about credible.)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2016, 07:37:27 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Kevinstat
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« Reply #1264 on: November 12, 2016, 01:59:03 am »
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The first seven submissions to the Constituency Commission regarding the present constituency review are online, including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).  More commentary of mine on the thread I started on the review back in July.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 02:01:01 am by Kevinstat »Logged
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1265 on: November 12, 2016, 05:54:32 pm »
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including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1266 on: November 12, 2016, 06:00:29 pm »
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Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (-)
FG 28 (+2)
SF 17 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (+1)
Lab 3 (-2)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-1)
WP 0 (-3)
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1267 on: November 12, 2016, 09:40:32 pm »
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including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 09:48:32 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1268 on: November 13, 2016, 09:35:39 pm »
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including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.

Just give him Portarlington and I imagine he'd be quite happy.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1269 on: November 15, 2016, 08:57:57 pm »
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including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.

Just give him Portarlington and I imagine he'd be quite happy.

I was referencing the fact that he had requested Laois-Offaly be reinstated as a six-seater.  He might have meant a five-seater (as Laois-Offaly was from 1923 until it was broken up in the last review) and just had a moment of absent-mindedness.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1270 on: November 26, 2016, 02:04:23 pm »
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RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 25 (-)
FF 24 (-2)
Ind/Oth 17 (+1)
SF 16 (+3)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (-4)
SD 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)

The most FG-friendly pollster returns to giving it a lead. The Trotskyite "surge" in the last poll subsides - perhaps the voters need to see more of Ruth Coppinger's winning scowl. Labour parrot still resting.
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ObserverIE
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E: -3.87, S: -1.04

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« Reply #1271 on: December 08, 2016, 05:26:11 am »
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Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FF 30 (+4)
FG 27 (+1)
SF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SD 2 (-)
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