Israel opinion poll thread

[RodPresident]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

What kind of government would come out of an election like that?

Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

[danny]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

What kind of government would come out of an election like that?

There are quite a few options, so I really can't say.

[danny]

Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

I think YB would be a more likely partner than Labour, and even if Labour is there that doesn't necessarily exclude YB from also being there. YB is actually a natural partner to have in a secular coalition, especially one headed by Likud.

[hawkeye59]

Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

I think YB would be a more likely partner than Labour, and even if Labour is there that doesn't necessarily exclude YB from also being there. YB is actually a natural partner to have in a secular coalition, especially one headed by Likud.

So, with that result, a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima-Independence or a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima coalition is likely?

[Vosem]

Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

I think YB would be a more likely partner than Labour, and even if Labour is there that doesn't necessarily exclude YB from also being there. YB is actually a natural partner to have in a secular coalition, especially one headed by Likud.

So, with that result, a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima-Independence or a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima coalition is likely?

Independence was created specifically to be in coalition with Likud and YB...

[danny]

So, with that result, a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima-Independence or a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima coalition is likely?

Yes, that is certainly a possibility, but so is including the haredi parties instead of Lapid.

[danny]

Another one from Globes:

Likud 27
Labour 19
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Future 13
Shas 9
UTJ 6
Jewish Home 5
Naional Union 4
Kadima 4
Meretz 4
Independence 3
Arab Parties 11


The way Kadima is going they might not even pass the election threshold of 2% by the time the elections arrive.

[danny]

The Israel institute of democracy made a big poll (with an English version) including many interesting political questions and subsamples if anyone's interested.

[danny]

New poll from globes:

Likud: 28
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Future (Lapid): 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
Kadima: 4
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Independence: 2
"Arab parties": 11

[Senator Clarence]

Can you please explain how Kadima droppepd so low...

[RogueBeaver]

LOL Kadima. Amazing how just a couple of years ago Lab was written off as dead, now Kadima's headed that route. Like clarence I'd be interested in hearing what happened.

[Sibboleth]

Once again, thanks for the update.

Can you please explain how Kadima droppepd so low...

A read through this entire thread ought to answer that question.

[danny]

Can you please explain how Kadima droppepd so low...

It has been a year long process in which everything went badly for them.

At the beginning of last summer Kadima was doing about the same as Likud at the top. Then came the social (economic) protests which highlighted the fact that there aren't big differences between them and Likud on these issues. then came the Labour primaries, in which shelly was elected leader instead of the terribly unpopular Barak. Shelly used the protests to her advantage, and is good at differentiating herself from Bibi on these issues.

  Then came the release of Gilad Shalit, which was popular with Kadima's potential voters, but which Livni opposed. After that Lapid started a new party, which presented a new centrist alternative to Kadima, and took many votes from them. Then there were the Kadima primaries in which the even less popular Mofaz won.

  Mofaz went on to be a terrible leader, promising in clear terms that he wouldn't join the government and support new elections. Immediately after that he broke his promises and joined the coalition and saved the government from collapse and new elections. This coalition went badly and Kadima quickly left, which made Kadima's entry look even worse.

All this was on top of the fact that centrist voters are very fickle, with a history of centrist parties coming and the disappearing, like Shinui, Gil, Dash, The Centre Party and The third way.

[danny]

I missed this poll by Haaretz from last week:

Likud: 28
Labour: 20
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
Kadima:8
Future (Lapid): 8
UTJ: 7
Jewish Home-National Union: 6
Meretz: 5
UAL-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 2
Independence: 2

[Sibboleth]

Perhaps Independence will merge with Kadima, so that Barak can be its leader. That would be amusing.

[danny]

now that we are heading for elections, there will be many polls until the elections, with two new polls out today.

starting with Ma'ariv:

Likud: 29
Labour: 17
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Shas: 10
Kadima: 6
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home: 5
UAL-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Independence: 2
National Union: 2

Ha'aretz:

Likud: 29
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Shas: 10
Jewish Home-National Union: 8
Kadima: 7
UTJ: 6
UAL-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 4
Balad: 2

[danny]

The Ma'ariv poll also tested a possible Livni-Olmert party (because we have such a shortage of Centre, centre-left parties...):

Likud: 29
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Livni-Olmert: 10
Shas: 9
Jewish Home: 5
UTJ: 5
UAL-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 3
Kadima: 3
Balad: 3
National Union: 2
Independence: 2

[danny]

And another from the Knesset channel:

Likud: 29
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
UAL-TAAL: 3
Kadima: 3

[ag]

Would Lapid Jr. be willing to go into a right-wing coalition w/ any of the religious parties?

[♀ Komrade Feminazi Kitteh ♀]

The Ma'ariv poll also tested a possible Livni-Olmert party (because we have such a shortage of Centre, centre-left parties...):

Has there been discussion about this happening? Any statements from Livni or Olmert or just media chatter?

[danny]

Would Lapid Jr. be willing to go into a right-wing coalition w/ any of the religious parties?

He would with the religious Zionists. The Ultra-Orthodox are more of a problem, and I don't see that happening.

[danny]

The Ma'ariv poll also tested a possible Livni-Olmert party (because we have such a shortage of Centre, centre-left parties...):

Has there been discussion about this happening? Any statements from Livni or Olmert or just media chatter?

Nothing direct, but there have been vague statements from the two about considering running in the elections.

[Insula Dei]

Re: that latest poll: is there actually any possibility at all of Labour coming out on top?

[MustCrushCapitalism]

Massive fall for Kadima, eh? Does that have something to do with that short lived coalition with Likud they were involved in earlier in the year, perhaps?

Unfortunate that Likud has such a firm lead.

[Vosem]

How are some of the smaller, newer parties doing (obviously not counting Yesh Atid, we know about them)? Things like Atzmaut (Barak's party), Tikun (apparently, Aryeh Deri was forming a party), Am Shalem (some random Shas breakoff), and that weird Arab Zionist party Wikipedia has an article on founded by an ex-Arab member of Likud named Sarhan Bader (he's calling it the Israeli Arab Nationalist Party)?