Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

Kachlon is not left-wing on economics. far from that. He started his way in the old Liberal party and if you keep tabs on what he say he's proposing mainly Liberal reforms to reduce product prices not so much the new deal people on the left want. He's like Lapid on economics with a bit more intelligence.
The difference is that Lapid had some left wing members in his party for balance and no commitment to Likud, Kachlon will have none.

[MalaspinaGold]

Yeah I agree he isn't left wing on economics (neither was Lapid) but probably will try to appeal to that crowd by saying reform and cell phones over and over again.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kahlon isn't left-wing but he also seems not to hate poor people. He's kind of like an Israeli Rick Santorum minus the obsession with gays.

[Hnv1]

it's the newspaper battle we should notice. Israel Hayom will surely support Bibi question is what will maariv, yediot, and haaretz do. and for that matter the economic papers (Globes, theMarker). Positive coverage is essential in Israel.
I think the new Maariv will support Liberman (fits their stance - right wing with no liking og Bibi). Yediot is a riddle ATM, their darlings Lapid and Livni don't seem to be able to lift themselves up and Herzog hadn't got enough appeal. Haaretz will again probably back Meretz whilst slandering it.

[danny]

Yeah I agree he isn't left wing on economics (neither was Lapid) but probably will try to appeal to that crowd by saying reform and cell phones over and over again.

Most Israelis don't have a real concept of what Left wing or right wing means when it comes to economics. What they do think is a much more vague concept of helping the poor or the middle class or lowering the price of goods. He can do well on the former simply by talking about it, and on the latter because people remember him by how he lowered the the phone bill. No one cares about how left wing or right wing the cell phone reform was.

[Silent Hunter]

The ICC has said it will not prosecute Israel over the Gaza flotilla raid in 2010.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, Environment Minister Amir Peretz (Hatnuah) announces he's resigning, but will stay in the party and the government. Bibi effectively says "good riddance."
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.625442
Also, Science Minister Yaakov Peri (Yesh Atid) says Yesh Atid may have to "reevaluate" their position within the Knesset.

Likud Primaries are scheduled for December 25. Is this a sign of elections coming up?

[danny]

So, Environment Minister Amir Peretz (Hatnuah) announces he's resigning, but will stay in the party and the government. Bibi effectively says "good riddance."
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.625442
Also, Science Minister Yaakov Peri (Yesh Atid) says Yesh Atid may have to "reevaluate" their position within the Knesset.

Likud Primaries are scheduled for December 25. Is this a sign of elections coming up?

Yes, the rumours are that the elections will be for April-May of next year, certainly everyone is behaving as if it is a done deal.

[Famous Mortimer]

Leadership vote is now January 6th instead of December 25th. Only candidates so far are Netanyahu and Feiglin. Only other likely candidate is Danny Dannon. Dannon might make it second this time but obviously Netanyahu is a lock.

[MalaspinaGold]

You don't think with all hell breaking loose in Jerusalem they might kick Bibi out for someone even more far right?

Also, considering the bad blood between Dannon and Bibi, I assume the former endorses Feiglin if he doesn't go for it himself?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tear down this wall, Netanyahu.

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/palestinians-break-open-illegal-apartheid-wall-25-years-after-berlin-wall-fall

[MalaspinaGold]

Wow, was I wrong, Dannon is trying for leadership.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.625791

What major differences, if any, are there between Dannon and Feiglin anyway? I get the feeling that Dannon is more secularist, while Feiglin is basically Bayit Yehudi's outpost in Likud. Anything else?

[danny]

Wow, was I wrong, Dannon is trying for leadership.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.625791

What major differences, if any, are there between Dannon and Feiglin anyway? I get the feeling that Dannon is more secularist, while Feiglin is basically Bayit Yehudi's outpost in Likud. Anything else?

Not at all, Dannon is closer to JH than Feiglin is. Dannon is a conventional very right wing. Feiglin is far more liberterian, he wants to privatise the school system and the land, would actually get rid of some of the religious laws and supports legalising marijuana.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Wow, was I wrong, Dannon is trying for leadership.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.625791

What major differences, if any, are there between Dannon and Feiglin anyway? I get the feeling that Dannon is more secularist, while Feiglin is basically Bayit Yehudi's outpost in Likud. Anything else?

He's also for a volunteer army, correct? I read the Jewish Press and saw an article to that effect a while back.

Not at all, Dannon is closer to JH than Feiglin is. Dannon is a conventional very right wing. Feiglin is far more liberterian, he wants to privatise the school system and the land, would actually get rid of some of the religious laws and supports legalising marijuana.

[danny]

Yes,  that too.

[MalaspinaGold]

Ah, okay thanks.

[Famous Mortimer]

Feiglin wanting a volunteer army goes along with him wanting to gut the defense budget in general. His idea is to use all the money that would have gone to defense spending to bribe Palestinians to leave the West Bank and Gaza.

Dannon wants to annex the West Bank and have the Arabs there be second class citizens. Feiglin wants to annex the West Bank and pay all the Arabs to leave.

It's debatable which of those positions is actually more right-wing. Generally though Dannon's, as it's less of a fantasy, is seen as more mainstream.

[MalaspinaGold]

New Knesset Channel poll:
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kachlon: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 4

So it seems that (thus far) the happenings in Jerusalem have not affected the electoral landscape at all.

One more thing: Since Bibi tends to underperform his polls, is it a legitimate possibility that we could see Bayit Yehudi with the largest faction? If so, what happens?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

New Knesset Channel poll:
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kachlon: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 4

So it seems that (thus far) the happenings in Jerusalem have not affected the electoral landscape at all.

One more thing: Since Bibi tends to underperform his polls, is it a legitimate possibility that we could see Bayit Yehudi with the largest faction? If so, what happens?

I imagine that Bennett would get the chance to form a coalition, and Likud would agree to join. However, it may be harder for Bennett to pull the coalition together, and a few of the more moderate parties may balk. If he can't get the 61 together, then Bibi - likely the runner up - would get the chance and would probably be able to, keeping him in the PM slot despite his second-place finish for the second time.

[The Mikado]

What kind of coalition could emerge from those poll numbers?

Likud + Jewish Home + Yisrael Beitenu + Kachlon's people = 54.  IIRC Shas and Jewish Home do not play well together, and Yesh Atid is a very poor fit for a coalition with Jewish Home.  Does Netanyahu invite in Labor?

[danny]

IIRC Shas and Jewish Home do not play well together, and Yesh Atid is a very poor fit for a coalition with Jewish Home.

Shas and JH would be fine together, and so would YA and JH, just like they are in a coalition right now. It's YA and Shas that wouldn't work.

  Does Netanyahu invite in Labor?

Yes.

[MalaspinaGold]

Do both Shas and UTJ get invited in, or just Shas? Shas gets them to just 61-62 seats; no way Bibi forms a government that small.

 Does Netanyahu invite in Labor?

Yes.

More importantly, what does labor say?

[danny]

Do both Shas and UTJ get invited in, or just Shas? Shas gets them to just 61-62 seats; no way Bibi forms a government that small.

Any government that includes Shas is very likely to also include UTJ.

More importantly, what does labor say?

That's a much harder question, can't say right now.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, I'm guessing that Bennett would make some social concessions to Yesh Atid, and Lapid would join despite their differences on territorial issues.

[Hnv1]

New Knesset Channel poll:
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kachlon: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 4

So it seems that (thus far) the happenings in Jerusalem have not affected the electoral landscape at all.

One more thing: Since Bibi tends to underperform his polls, is it a legitimate possibility that we could see Bayit Yehudi with the largest faction? If so, what happens?

The law says that after the election all party leader go to the president and recommend who they think should form the government. In this case I don't think that part for Likud and maybe Shas\UTJ with enough cash anyother party will agree to sit in a JH government (Labour in no way and I think not even  YA). Even if Likud end up second largest in this case  I think everyone else will try to form  a different coalition ranging from Liberman to Meretz.