Israel general discussion

[MalaspinaGold]

Last week three women came forward accusing Bayit Yehudi MK Yinon Magal of sexual harrasment while he worked at Walla!. He'll be stepping down.

Was frequently touted as a RISING STAR for JH, being a secular and all. Of course he had already made public he was an idiotic sleazeball, so whatever.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who's next on the list? Isn't it the Third Temple guy?

[Hnv1]

Who's next on the list? Isn't it the Third Temple guy?

former MK Avi Wortzman, seemed fairly right win but not a nutter in his last term when he was also deputy minister of education.

I'm happy Magal is out he was a twat along with Gal and their both out now

[Hnv1]

edit to that: Wurtzman did want to be sworn in and the next in line was the party CEO so Bennet decided to resume being an MK

[danny]

A new poll by Maagar Mochot:

Likud: 31
ZU: 20
Yesh Atid: 15
Joint List:13
Jewish Home: 9
Shas: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Kulanu: 5

[Vosem]

A new poll by Maagar Mochot:

Likud: 31
ZU: 20
Yesh Atid: 15
Joint List:13
Jewish Home: 9
Shas: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Kulanu: 5

The current government is at 59, the opposition is at 61. However, it is still impossible, under these numbers, to create a government that is not Likud-led.

In an odd historical twist, Israel and Germany are in very similar political situations right now. In both countries, the largest right-wing party has won the last three elections straight, sometimes with a grand coalition (Netanyahu allied with Avoda 2009-2011, and with Yesh Atid 2013-2014) and sometimes not. It's difficult to see the left take power in either country, and in both countries it is severely hampered by the existence of a "further-left" option (Die Linke in Germany and the Joint List in Israel) who it cannot form a coalition with but whose voters it needs if it is ever to have a chance at forming government.

[DavidB.]

Right/religious is at 62 in the poll, which is what matters. YB also counts for that. Center/left at 45 (including Kulanu); 58 including Arabs. A pretty stable picture, though it has been quite a bit higher for the right in the past.

Most of the government parties' losses stem from Kulanu's decline. Predictable, given the fact that centrist Israeli voters have myriad options, Yesh Atid is outside the government and Kahlon didn't do anything useful to them. Shame Yachad wasn't polled.

In an odd historical twist, Israel and Germany are in very similar political situations right now. In both countries, the largest right-wing party has won the last three elections straight, sometimes with a grand coalition (Netanyahu allied with Avoda 2009-2011, and with Yesh Atid 2013-2014) and sometimes not. It's difficult to see the left take power in either country, and in both countries it is severely hampered by the existence of a "further-left" option (Die Linke in Germany and the Joint List in Israel) who it cannot form a coalition with but whose voters it needs if it is ever to have a chance at forming government.

Interesting perspective. To add to that, the situation toward same-sex marriage is similar in Germany and Israel. A popular majority support it and a majority in parliament support it (also in Israel: according to this year's voting compass Likud, ZU, JL, Meretz, YA and Kulanu support it; even if some Likud and JL members would vote against, there would probably be a majority). However, the most conservative parties in the coalition prevent it from happening and will likely be doing so in the next coalition as well. Of course, the difference is that in Israel smaller religious parties are blocking it whereas the big "conservative" party supports it, whereas in Germany it is the big "conservative" party (and its proxy) that blocks it.

[Hnv1]

A. midterm polls in Israel are rubbish B. Israeli polling companies are rubbish
I would take this poll with a kilogram of salt as the numbers don't really add up rationally. With regards to the comparison with Germany neither the 09 and 13 coalitions could be considered as 'Grand Coalition' by local standards but rather ordinary coalition, a Grand Coalition suggests some form of power share ala 1984\1988. Also in Germany red-green-dark red coalition is possible in Israel a Labour lead coalition with the JAL is far fetched

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could JL provide external support to a Labour coalition, or is even that off the table?

[Hnv1]

Could JL provide external support to a Labour coalition, or is even that off the table?

Likely but hardly from the start of a term and it really depends on 'peace process progress'. Anyway Herzog is unlikely to form a coalition and Labour don't seem to be on the road to nowhere, if Lapid forms the next government (please no) he'll never be dependent on the JAL and they're unlikely to support him.

It really seems that no party leader (bar for maybe UTJ) actually likes Bibi or would like to see him stay in politics let alone most of Likud ministers. Liberman hates him, Kachlon has a belly full of resent towards him, Lapid he's waiting for him around the corner, Deri'i would much rather not work with him, and Bennet...that goes on personal levels now.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do you hate Lapid? I thought he was just an inoffensive dullard?

[DavidB.]

I hope Netanyahu will step down after this term. Barkat would be a good leader for Likud. Not that I'd (or I'll; depending on when the election takes place) vote for him, of course but he would be better than Bibi, who has simply become too damaging to Israel abroad, even if that is mostly not his own fault, and who is too indecisive on domestic issues. But basically everybody doesn't want Bibi anymore, and yet he decides whether he will stay on or not; nobody within Likud truly seems to be able to topple him. A pretty impressive position of power.

Why do you hate Lapid? I thought he was just an inoffensive dullard?

Lapid is not a dullard. He's pretty smooth, even a bit too much, and exactly that is what people find off-putting.

[Comrade Funk]

Impressive for YA. Further proof Labor needs a new leader which seems very possible at this point.

[Vosem]

I hope Netanyahu will step down after this term.

One of the issues in Israeli politics is how profoundly, profoundly unusual stepping aside is for a national leader; it's very unusual for an Israeli political leader to step down (besides Ben-Gurion, who stepped down twice but was trying to return to power both times inside of two years, the only two Israeli Prime Ministers who've stepped down voluntarily were Meir and Begin -- and had Begin lived later, he might've been diagnosed with clinical depression, so in a certain sense the only Israeli Prime Minister to step down because they felt their time had passed, and who stuck with that decision, was Golda Meir. A quick survey of Israeli Prime Ministers:

Ben-Gurion: stepped aside voluntarily in 1954 but reconsidered within a year (successfully); stepped aside voluntarily in 1963 but reconsidered within two years (unsuccessfully)
Sharett: forced out by own party, 1955
Eshkol: died, 1969
Meir: stepped aside voluntarily, 1974 (only really pure example)
Rabin: forced out by own party under ethical cloud, 1977; assassinated, 1995
Begin: stepped aside voluntarily, 1983, but had fallen into depression by this time
Shamir: stepped out under power-sharing agreement, 1984; defeated, 1992
Peres: stepped out under power-sharing agreement, 1986; defeated, 1996
Netanyahu (first time): defeated, 1999
Barak: defeated, 2001
Sharon: fell into coma, 2006
Olmert: forced out by own party, 2009

So, Israeli politics is historically so volatile (a majority of the time) or so dominated by one individual (a minority of the time) that the country has failed to develop a tradition of leaders eventually stepping aside. (There is also not a tradition of politicians stepping aside due to age; Shimon Peres, who was an important figure in Israeli diplomacy in the 1950s, fought his first election in 1977, fought his last election in 1996, and was still fighting for party leadership in 2005, at age 82, and did not leave politics until 2014. If Netanyahu is still trying to cling to Likud leadership at age 82, this will happen in 2034.)

The point is, I find it difficult to envision Netanyahu going quietly into the night. He will remain until he is overthrown, whether by election defeat (seems unlikely in the immediate future), by intraparty rivals (likewise), by scandal (likewise), or by a biological condition (likewise). There is very little precedent in Israeli politics for leadership figures stepping down of their own volition.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I didn't say it was likely for him to do so. In fact, I think he will stay on until 202x, since I don't see the Israeli electorate give the left (excluding the Arabs) more seats than the right; their numbers just don't add up.

[Hnv1]

Why do you hate Lapid? I thought he was just an inoffensive dullard?

He's very much a dullard and a horrible one at it. The web is filled with his pathetic intellectual bloopers, he's shallow to the point it's absurd and the problem is he has no self awareness so he's certain he's the brightest kid in class. He's smooth but that's because he's a dumbed version of Bibi, a demagogue with nothing bright to say. Now if there something I dislike is shallowness in politics and intellectual deficit (hence my disliking of American politics and politicians) so I find him especially off-putting.

And on the political level, he's far from inoffensive and his remarks regarding Arabs, leftists, right wingers, religious people and such shows it. His 'centerism' is actually militant right-wing in its core and as I said I think he's a dumbed version of Bibi. Now I dislike Bibi but I'de rather him than his lackwit mini-me as a PM. In addition, he's completely a puppet, everything he writes and says now is formulated by imaging experts and powerful people in Yediot group who want their puppet in office.

David are you a civilian? I didn't know you did Aliya

[DavidB.]

He's very much a dullard and a horrible one at it. The web is filled with his pathetic intellectual bloopers, he's shallow to the point it's absurd and the problem is he has no self awareness so he's certain he's the brightest kid in class. He's smooth but that's because he's a dumbed version of Bibi, a demagogue with nothing bright to say. Now if there something I dislike is shallowness in politics and intellectual deficit (hence my disliking of American politics and politicians) so I find him especially off-putting.

And on the political level, he's far from inoffensive and his remarks regarding Arabs, leftists, right wingers, religious people and such shows it. His 'centerism' is actually militant right-wing in its core and as I said I think he's a dumbed version of Bibi. Now I dislike Bibi but I'de rather him than his lackwit mini-me as a PM. In addition, he's completely a puppet, everything he writes and says now is formulated by imaging experts and powerful people in Yediot group who want their puppet in office.

Because of his offensiveness I wouldn't use the word dullard, but yes, he's not too smart. I entirely agree with your descriptive analysis of Lapid, except for the part in which you call him militantly right-wing: while I totally understand where it comes from and while I think many people don't understand how right-wing Lapid actually is, his "brand" is more populist than right-wing to the core in the sense that he basically takes the median position of secular Israelis on the topic of security: "two-state solution, but not now". And that position is inevitably rather right-wing when it comes to politics in practice, since it isn't that different from Bibi's position. But it stems from opportunism rather than conviction.

I'd compare Lapid's position to the one many European social liberal politicians have, in the sense that their "right-wingness" is often grossly underestimated. Not in terms of policy positions, of course, where Lapid is much more right-wing (in an Israeli sense, on the conflict) than any social liberal politician would ever be, but just in terms of where one stands in the political space when it comes to the most important political divide (in Europe mostly socio-economic, in Israel the conflict).

David are you a civilian? I didn't know you did Aliya

Not yet, but it's pretty likely that I'll be an Israeli citizen when the next election takes place -- that is, if the next election will take place in 2019, which is actually not that likely given the fact that it is, after all, Israel we're talking about Luckily, as a Dutchman, I can handle the idea of snap elections...

[Hnv1]

It grieves me personally to say that Yossi Sarid (75) former chairman of Meretz, Minister of Education, MK for 32 years (Maarach, Ratz, Meretz), and a prolific author and journalist has passed away tonight. He's a leading figure in my formative years of understanding politics and his run in 99 made me a follower. Later on, I met him on several occasions and found truly brilliant person. Though nowadays I align politically more with his rival Aloni's legacy I nevertheless regard him as one of the finest people we had in Israeli politics.
RIP

[Comrade Funk]

I recommend people to watch this John Kerry speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q10MZaKH8oQ

[MalaspinaGold]

Interesting Haaretz interview with Shas MK Yaakov Margi, Somewhat of a "Red Shasnik", to borrow the British/Canadian phraseology.
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.690869

[Hnv1]

So Interior Minister (and Chief of the negotiation with Palestinian [which?]) Sylvan Shalom resigns due to allegations of sexual harassment. once a rising star in the Likud and almost a PM candidate, he was a senior minister until 2006 and then his career faded away. I've been a political troll from the late 90's at least and I cannot recall a single thing good or bad I can credit him with, he was always mellow at best with good friends in the media.

Next in line is Amir Ohana who is going to be the first ever gay Likud MK! (in a party that does not support gay rights), from the interview with him I read he appears social liberal but very Hawkish. After him is the third temple nutter, so I assume Bibi will try very hard to keep this lineup all the way to the next elections.
Number of LGBT MKs now: 2 - Ohana and Shmoli.

Fun fact: Bibi is now the PM, Foreign minister, Economy minister, Communications Minister, Regional Cooperation Minister, and the Interior Minister (for now at least) . L'Etat, c'est moi

[Famous Mortimer]

Remind me, who is Shmoli?

Also, who are the two closeted ones?

[Hnv1]

Remind me, who is Shmoli?

Also, who are the two closeted ones?

Itzik Shmoli (Labour) - obnoxious politico from the Israeli National Student Union which is a nurturing home for bland politicos. On Labour's right, rode through the 2011 protests to the Knesset.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Israeli National Student Union which is a nurturing home for bland politicos.

I do like how certain things are the same, world over...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can some Israeli poster can say more or less or maybe send me some links about which parties Israeli Christians (Arabs, not Arabs) usually vote on? They are small minority but maybe there are some data about them? I found information about such party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sons_of_the_New_Testament but they don't seem to be popular. I will be very grateful for the help.