Israel general discussion

[SATW]

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Report-Police-scrutinize-opposition-chief-in-suspected-corruption-probe-449738

Herzog named in corruption probe.


http://www.timesofisrael.com/2-top-politicians-suspected-of-major-corruption-report/

Deri too, which is as surprising as learning expired milk can make you sick.

[SATW]

Chag Sameach to those who celebrate.

Just wanted to know what you all thought of the latest political mishap of Labor's vilage idiot, Isaac Herzog:

"We are not Arab Lovers." - Herzog.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Herzog-Zionist-Union-should-stop-giving-the-impression-they-are-always-Arab-lovers-451743
http://972mag.com/no-herzog-arab-lovers-is-the-last-thing-you-can-say-about-labor/118738/
http://www.timesofisrael.com/yachimovich-herzogs-pandering-to-far-right-on-arabs-miserable/


I linked the last article, with Yachimovich's criticisms, because it brings up a point I brought up when I met with Jeremy Bird, the American progressive activist who led V15 for the Zionist Union, in late 2015.

We were discussing whether or not Labor will remain a political force in Israel or if it will fade into obscurity. I predicted that Herzog, but not Labor, will fade into obscurity due to his attempt to swing the party to the middle. Yachimovich seems to be trying to make this a reality, but I think this back and forth between these two will cause a fracture in the party, while Bird claims that he thinks Herzog's strategy will work.

[Famous Mortimer]

The name and the mass membership nature of the party means it will always have the potential to bounce back.

[SATW]

The name and the mass membership nature of the party means it will always have the potential to bounce back.

True. The question is, i guess, when that will be. As a Likudnik, I won't mind if Labor takes another decade or so to save itself

[Hnv1]

Herzog is pretty much dead politically, MK Margalit seems to be pushing for leadership lately under the "witty" banner of New Labour and cringe worthy videos...Shelly\Peretz don't seem to want a leadership challenge now.

Labour is dying as well, but from radiation so it might take sometime (and if you ask me they became terminal in 99). Now the prophecy was given to the fools but I fully see a new party system in 20 years (old Likud is just beginning to die) and in some point in the near future there will be another centre bloc I reckon. 

V15 was a pathetic attempt and I wanted nothing to do with them at the time and predicted it was a waste of resources, this is not American politics and that's not what works here (I guess I also have a slight bias of anti-American politics with my personal history)

[Hnv1]

Well I guess this is make or break, a coalition agreement between ZU and Likud is pretty much drafted (ZU will get lost of ministerial post but JH stays in and original coalition guidelines in place). Herzog is facing an outright rebellion with 19\24 MKs against (and Livni saying it will break ZU apart) but lots of local activists (mayors and such) are for.
It's a lose-lose situation for him, he's a lame-duck but I guess he wants some time as a foreign minister before they behead him. The Question is will he have the nerve the break ZU and even Labour apart for this.

[DavidB.]

Moshe Gafni (UTJ MK, belonging to the non-Hasidic faction of the party -- Degel HaTorah) stated in a haredi magazine that he wants JH out of the coalition and ZU in. He also took a jab at party leader Yaakov Litzman (who leads the Hasidic faction of the party --  Agudat Yisrael), stating that Litzman "is friends with people who are destroying the Torah world and with the head of a party that isn't working in the interest of the Haredi community" (=Bennett).

You gotta love Israeli politics.

On another note, ZU voters will be thrilled by the perspective of Herzog propping up a Bibi-Bennett government just when Bibi needs it the most. Especially considering the fact that many of them voted for them because of their only campaign issue, namely "PLS NO BIBI ANYMORE".

[MalaspinaGold]

Moshe Gafni (UTJ MK, belonging to the non-Hasidic faction of the party -- Degel HaTorah) stated in a haredi magazine that he wants JH out of the coalition and ZU in. He also took a jab at party leader Yaakov Litzman (who leads the Hasidic faction of the party --  Agudat Yisrael), stating that Litzman "is friends with people who are destroying the Torah world and with the head of a party that isn't working in the interest of the Haredi community" (=Bennett).

You gotta love Israeli politics.

On another note, ZU voters will be thrilled by the perspective of Herzog propping up a Bibi-Bennett government just when Bibi needs it the most. Especially considering the fact that many of them voted for them because of their only campaign issue, namely "PLS NO BIBI ANYMORE".

I've been following Israeli politics for a while, and I still can't figure out what the internal politics behind Degel and Agudas. I've always had a soft spot for Litzman because of his decent tenure as deputy Health Minister, but also for Gafni for other reasons (such as somewhat social democratic economic views.) Good to see he hates The Bald One almost as much as I do.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So is this good news for Meretz?

[SATW]

So is this good news for Meretz?

eh. I dont' see any major bump for them from this whole ZU fiasco, maybe a seat or two?

[Hnv1]

So is this good news for Meretz?

+1 seat tops, this is more of a birthday gift for Lapid

[ag]

Why the hell does he do it? What is the motivation?

[Hnv1]

Why the hell does he do it? What is the motivation?

Dead men walking have weird ways to go about, I guess he thought he could float like this for 2 years as his lots of field activists and mayors are for but he didn't think the response from the MKs and others would be so bad. And walla he's porked from every direction now.

but at least Labour MKs found some backbone that wouldn't have happened 10 years ago (the shameful sights of 2001)

[Hnv1]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

[Famous Mortimer]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

I assume you mean a peace party and a socialist party, right?

[Hnv1]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

I assume you mean a peace party and a socialist party, right?

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

[DC Al Fine]

Are there any places where I can look up polling since the last election? Wikipedia doesn't seem to have anything.

[danny]

Are there any places where I can look up polling since the last election? Wikipedia doesn't seem to have anything.

The last one that I know of from march 9:

Channel one poll:

Likud: 25
Yesh Atid: 21
ZU: 15
Joint List: 13
Jewish Home: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 7
Shas: 7
Meretz: 6
Kulanu: 6

The biggest change being the collapse of ZU (Herzog has been terrible) with the lost votes being gained by Lapid.

[DavidB.]

Are there any places where I can look up polling since the last election? Wikipedia doesn't seem to have anything.

Poll by Smith for Reshet Bet Radio, 25 March:
26 [-4] Likud
19 [+8] Yesh Atid
17 [-7] Zionist Union
12 [-1] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [+3] Bayit Yehudi
08 [+2] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [-3] Kulanu
07 [+/-] Shas
07 [+1] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [+1] Meretz

Basically, YA wins ZU + Kulanu voters and strategic Likud voters go back to BY and YB.

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

[Famous Mortimer]

Are there any places where I can look up polling since the last election? Wikipedia doesn't seem to have anything.

Poll by Smith for Reshet Bet Radio, 25 March:
26 [-4] Likud
19 [+8] Yesh Atid
17 [-7] Zionist Union
12 [-1] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [+3] Bayit Yehudi
08 [+2] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [-3] Kulanu
07 [+/-] Shas
07 [+1] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [+1] Meretz

Basically, YA wins ZU + Kulanu voters and strategic Likud voters go back to BY and YB.

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Maybe more logical but it's not politically realistic at all. We're much more likely to see a link up between Meretz/Livni/Labor Right/Various BS centrists. "Human rights" types and socialists have never gotten along. Socialists always hold out hope of winning hawkish working class Sephardim.

[Hnv1]

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Hatnua isn't really to Labour's right on some issues and Labour SDs are sometimes the most right wing in the party. Socialists and human rights don't get along (it's tearing Meretz from the inside) it was a forced union that happened due the circumstances of the early 90's

[danny]

New poll from channel 10:

Likud: 25
YA: 20
JL: 14
ZU: 13
JH: 12
YB: 9
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 6

[Hnv1]

Herzog continues negotiating with Likud and he demands one of Justice\culture\communication ministries as a symbolic victory. I'm at a point I don't understand his aim, most of his party already announced their reluctance to join and he may get support in the party convention but that won't be enough (plus it will the definite splinter of Livni and her ilk).
He claims there some pressing diplomatic issues at stake here but I find it hard to believe (I'm sure BB would love him as a moderate foreign minister stopping those evil French). Even if does pull it off and goes in he's done at the next leadership election   

[MalaspinaGold]

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Hatnua isn't really to Labour's right on some issues and Labour SDs are sometimes the most right wing in the party. Socialists and human rights don't get along (it's tearing Meretz from the inside) it was a forced union that happened due the circumstances of the early 90's

Can you go more into depth about this?

[Hnv1]

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Hatnua isn't really to Labour's right on some issues and Labour SDs are sometimes the most right wing in the party. Socialists and human rights don't get along (it's tearing Meretz from the inside) it was a forced union that happened due the circumstances of the early 90's

Can you go more into depth about this?

Well in the late 80's and early 90's three parties decided to merge, Dovish-liberal Shinoi, radial Ratz, and socialist Mapam. The reason for the merger was the first intifadda that put those three parties on the same line as pro-PLO talks and anti-occupation. The old economic lines were irrelevant back then and Mapam (which was always the right wing element toward the Palestinian issue) was shell shocked after  the 88 elections. In 96 there was a formal union, but things never went quite smoothly and there was a series of conflicts between opposing figures from each side.

More recently Ilan Gilon leads the "reds", who want to dim out on the Palestinian issue and try attracting working class Jewish voters on a socialist platform. Gilon is very popular with the youth branch and student groups and recent interior elections had a very ugly tone to them. Mainly the recent party CEO elections between Gilon's prodigy and veteran Mossi Raz. Now the election of the new Youth branch leadership are coming up which will increase hostility and animosity who are already running pretty high.

I heard from now a few party activists they wish Gilon would go with he posse and join Yechimovich in some new SD bloc. With the imminent collapse of the remnants of the Oslo process  I think we'll see things moving faster towards a split.

I could go further but this is as esoteric like battles within Vermont's progressive party I personally began on the Mapam side of the equation but I'm far from those views nowadays