Israel opinion poll thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Frankly, if I ran the place, I'd create 20 electoral districts, each of which would elect a single member via FPTP, and be unassociated with the 100 proportional members. The idea being that it would bolster any parties that can win over a national audience.

[republicanism]

Frankly, if I ran the place, I'd create 20 electoral districts, each of which would elect a single member via FPTP, and be unassociated with the 100 proportional members. The idea being that it would bolster any parties that can win over a national audience.

20 FPTP and 100 national PR? That wouldn't change the Israeli party system at all.

Do 60/60 or something, and it would make a difference.

Or, well, just a treshold. And there are ways to ensure Arab representation even if non of their list gets over 5%.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

60 60 would change the Israeli party system, and why I avoid it.

[republicanism]

60 60 would change the Israeli party system, and why I avoid it.

Then why would you do any electoral reform at all?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Stabilize Governments.

[Χahar]

Some form of STV would be the best way to provide for relative stability while ensuring that the minority gets its voice heard. STV would be impossible with the current Israeli voting system, of course.

[dead0man]

I heard Noam Shalit, dad to Gilad Shalit, might run for a place on the Labor list for the Knesset.  The leader of the Labor party said that it was great to have him, we just hope that 1027 people won't go over to the other side.

[danny]

New poll conducted yesterday (18/1/12):

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 26
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 7
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 15
Kadima: 9
Lapid: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

*Haim Amsalem is a current knesset member who was elected in the last elections as part of shas, but took views that are much more religiously moderate than his party. he ended up leaving Shas to found his own party which will be right wing on the left right axis but more religiously moderate than Shas.

[republicanism]

No offense my friend, but your party system is a mess.

[danny]

Lapid has closed the door on the possibility of his joining Kadima by posting on Facebook that Kadima is a party of cynical politicians that no one knows what they believe in that were kicked out of their former parties, and there is no chance that he will join them.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

This is why I say that 20 FPTP seats would do wonders. Imagine this:


Likud   -   21   -   15   -   36
Y.Beit   -   14   -      -   14
Lab   -   11   -      -   11
Kad   -   11   -   2   -   13
Lapid   -   6   -      -   6
Shas   -   6   -   3   -   9
UTJ   -   5   -      -   5
NatU   -   4   -      -   4
JewH   -   3   -      -   3
Ra-Ta   -   3   -      -   3
Had   -   3   -      -   3
Bal   -   3   -      -   3
Deri   -   3   -      -   3
Meretz   -   3   -      -   3
Indp   -   2   -      -   2
RabHai   -   2   -      -   2

[danny]

This is why I say that 20 FPTP seats would do wonders. Imagine this:


Likud   -   21   -   15   -   36
Y.Beit   -   14   -      -   14
Lab   -   11   -      -   11
Kad   -   11   -   2   -   13
Lapid   -   6   -      -   6
Shas   -   6   -   3   -   9
UTJ   -   5   -      -   5
NatU   -   4   -      -   4
JewH   -   3   -      -   3
Ra-Ta   -   3   -      -   3
Had   -   3   -      -   3
Bal   -   3   -      -   3
Deri   -   3   -      -   3
Meretz   -   3   -      -   3
Indp   -   2   -      -   2
RabHai   -   2   -      -   2

I seriously doubt Likud take 15 of 20 FPTP seats, unless they gerrymander very smartly for themselves I don't think they will take more than half the seats, so it woudn't make that much of a difference.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Then who would win? Your own maps show their strength?

[danny]

Then who would win? Your own maps show their strength?

UTJ would have 1 or 2 depending on the districts and whether non-haredi would coalesce around a single candidate the way they do in local Jerusalem elections (which is more of a problem to do than in national elections).
2-3 Arab seats where the fight will be between the Arab parties.
Probably another 3 marginal Likud-Yisrael Beitenu seats, 1 in the north and s in the south.
and then a bunch of seats for whomever comes out on top amongst the left-centre parties in the centre and possibly another one based in Haifa. probably another 3-6 seats.
The rest would go to Likud.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 30
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Hadash: 4
Raam Taal: 3
Balad: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

With Likud so far out ahead, would it be difficult for anyone else, even if they came to an agreement, to shove them out of a government in the event that the election resulted in exactly this?

[danny]

If the results were like this poll, there would be no doubt that Likud would head the next government. In theory, a group of smaller parties could join together and put themselves ahead. But they would need to have a majority, and only Likud would be able to get this in this scenario, since right wing parties have a majority.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 39
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 6
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Arab parties: 10

[Speaker Dereich]

New poll:

Likud: 39
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 6
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Arab parties: 10

Any particular reason for the Likud jump?

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 39
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 6
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Arab parties: 10

Any particular reason for the Likud jump?

I think it's mostly because of the weakness of the opposition. Kadima is busy with an internal primary, and isn't focused on attacking the Likud. And the main news Lapid has made since entering politics is about how he managed to get himself into doctorate studies despite never finishing high school, or getting any degree of any kind.

Other than that, Israel is doing pretty well in general. Terrorism is relatively low, unemployment is at a 30 year low and GDP growth in 2011 was 4.8%, Though this would be true a month ago as well.

[J. J.]

Likud could be seen as being stronger on Iran.  They could be seen as fighting Iran, but not wanting to gobble up the Middle East.

[danny]

New poll from "Haaretz":

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 37
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Labour: 14
Kadima: 10
Shas: 9
Lapid: 7
UTJ: 7
National Union-Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 5
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 2

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 35
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labour: 14
Kadima: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 8
UTJ: 7
National Union-Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 5
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 2

Favourability

Netanyahu:
favourable: 53%
unfavourable: 40%

Lieberman:
favourable: 42%
unfavourable: 50%

Barak:
favourable: 46%
unfavourable: 47%

Yuval Shteinitz (minister of finance, which is a usually unpopular position):
favourable: 33%
unfavourable: 51%

Livni:
favourable: 31%
unfavourable: 58%

Rivlin (speaker of the Knesset):
favourable: 66%
unfavourable: 17%

Peres:
favourable: 81%
unfavourable: 13%

[danny]

New poll from Yediot Ahronot (not on their website so no link):

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 29
Kadima:15
Lapid: 13
Labour: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
UTJ:6
Meretz: 4
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 29
Kadima:12
Lapid: 14
Labour: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 8
UTJ:6
Meretz: 5
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

[Senator Clarence]

Danny- It is good to see some one from Israel on here. Can you please tell us which of the parties are more right-wing, left-wing, or centrist? I know Likud is right, Kadima- center, and Labor- left but can you expand on the other parties in the poll?
clarence

[danny]

Danny- It is good to see some one from Israel on here. Can you please tell us which of the parties are more right-wing, left-wing, or centrist? I know Likud is right, Kadima- center, and Labor- left but can you expand on the other parties in the poll?
clarence

Keep in mind that the left/right axis in Israel is about Hawkishness and Dovishness and not economics.

Lapid- centre, presumably very secular like his father.

Yisrael beitenu- right-wing, secular, mostly immigrant party (from the former USSR).

Shas,United Torah Judaism(UTJ),National Union, Jewish Home- all 4 are right wing religious parties, here is a link with an explanation on the differences between them.

Meretz- far left-wing secularist

Deri- religious sephardi but not rot really right-wing.

Arab parties:

United Arab List- Islamist.

Balad- Pan Arabist and close to the Syrian Baathist party.

Hadash- Communist.