Israel general discussion

[DavidB.]

Will a hypothetical new Likud leader and PM ease the current tension between USA-Israel-UN or will it suffer no change?

The new U.S. president will.

[Mike88]

Will a hypothetical new Likud leader and PM ease the current tension between USA-Israel-UN or will it suffer no change?

The new U.S. president will.

Yeah of course.... Clearly i wrote the question the wrong way. Sorry, my bad. What i was asking is if a new PM will change, or not, the current policy line of two people/two states and if Likud has any wing agaisnt this policy and in favour on a one state solution.

[Hnv1]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

[Hnv1]

Will a hypothetical new Likud leader and PM ease the current tension between USA-Israel-UN or will it suffer no change?

The new U.S. president will.

Yeah of course.... Clearly i wrote the question the wrong way. Sorry, my bad. What i was asking is if a new PM will change, or not, the current policy line of two people/two states and if Likud has any wing agaisnt this policy and in favour on a one state solution.

Why would they do that? Non of them believes in 2SS but they all know it's a diplomatic asset.
Only Elkin and Levine are careless enough to do so.

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

[Hnv1]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

Ragtag coalition led by Lapid including Liberman, Bennet, Kachlon, and Labour\Likud. won't last for 2 years.
But it is very hypothetical as if Bibi is out there will be changes across the spectrum with new players in and new constellations formed (Labour won't put Herzog against Saar). It is plausible we'll see the same scenario mentioned earlier only with a party led by Boogie\Ashkenazi\Kachlon in charge (though Ganz will likely head to Labour so you never know).

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

Ragtag coalition led by Lapid including Liberman, Bennet, Kachlon, and Labour\Likud. won't last for 2 years.
But it is very hypothetical as if Bibi is out there will be changes across the spectrum with new players in and new constellations formed (Labour won't put Herzog against Saar). It is plausible we'll see the same scenario mentioned earlier only with a party led by Boogie\Ashkenazi\Kachlon in charge (though Ganz will likely head to Labour so you never know).

I have a very hard time seeing Labour sitting with Bennett, and Lapid creating a purely right wing coalition seems like a bad move. Perhaps there is an outside chance for Lapid leading a government with Kahlon, Lieberman, Labour (presumably hovering at 10-13 seats in this scenario) and Likud?

[windjammer]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

David I don't understand,
The other rightwing parties are rising in the polls except Kulanu, new elections would likely reinforce their position especially with a Likud scandal, so I guess strategically speaking it would make sense to force new elections.

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

David I don't understand,
The other rightwing parties are rising in the polls except Kulanu, new elections would likely reinforce their position especially with a Likud scandal, so I guess strategically speaking it would make sense to force new elections.

Yes, but does Lieberman have anywhere higher to go other than Minister of Defense? And can the Haredim risk Lapid becoming PM? Even Bennett might find it too risky, and Kahlon would very likely lose seats.

[DavidB.]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

David I don't understand,
The other rightwing parties are rising in the polls except Kulanu, new elections would likely reinforce their position especially with a Likud scandal, so I guess strategically speaking it would make sense to force new elections.

Yes, but does Lieberman have anywhere higher to go other than Minister of Defense? And can the Haredim risk Lapod becoming PM? Even Bennett might find it too risky, and Kahlon would very likely lose seats.

This. Kahlon may lose seats, and Bennett and Lieberman wouldn't gain enough to make it worth the gamble. The improvement in terms of policy and cabinet positions would be really marginal, if any.

[Famous Mortimer]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

[Hnv1]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

What? No primaries for leadership and list before? Seems very odd. There were primaries before all the previous ones.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the hack where I can get Haaretz articles for free?

[Hnv1]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

What? No primaries for leadership and list before? Seems very odd. There were primaries before all the previous ones

If it's really soon I can't see them having both at the same time. Meretz did but Galon ran unopposed anyway.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Given the silence here, I have to ask, has the BBC been overhyping how significant the Elor Azaria case has been in Israel, or are our ardent defenders of Zionism here humane enuf to not defend a homicidal medic, or are both factors the case here? I think both are likely true, but I could be wrong.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Given the silence here, I have to ask, has the BBC been overhyping how significant the Elor Azaria case has been in Israel, or are our ardent defenders of Zionism here humane enuf to not defend a homicidal medic, or are both factors the case here? I think both are likely true, but I could be wrong.

It's a pretty big deal not because a single soldier is going to jail for disobeying orders and executing a defeated enemy, but because it's a symbol of what's happening to the Israeli right- a whole politocal spectrum, driven by the wish of every politician to show himself as more right wing than the others, declaring a war against the judiciary system, the IDF top command and the media's freedom, all because the democratic and ethical values that always guided Israel are not allowing them to fulfill their extremist ideology, and because they're easy targets to blame for the inaction and incompetence of the current government. After all, the left wing politicians are powerless, so the media, judiciary system and IDF commanders are now the symbols of the demonized left.

[Zinneke]

So is the annexation of Palestine just hot air or are they genuinely considering it? What would happen if they did it and found themselves told that they are going too far by the International Community? Or would Trump possibly carry enough weight to wave it through?

[Hnv1]

Given the silence here, I have to ask, has the BBC been overhyping how significant the Elor Azaria case has been in Israel, or are our ardent defenders of Zionism here humane enuf to not defend a homicidal medic, or are both factors the case here? I think both are likely true, but I could be wrong.

Well as a lawyer there was absolutely no doubt he was guilty (I would say the mens rea was sufficient for murder but the court didn't want to go that far). Yet, it also quite true that many similar cases did not end with conviction, and that standard army behavior in the field legitimized such conduct. Hence, it will be unjust to treat him as a scapegoat.
The political right is going rabid over this (rather incoherently I think), the political left is actually rather quiet (the centre-left trying to avoid publicity damage and the harder left knows it's a drop in an ocean so why bother). But the moral discourse here is less interesting than the political one, especially how Liberman and Bennet diverged here.

The CoGS actually came out as the most reasonable speaker here. He became a new enemy of the far right and a new darling for the statist centre-left.

I personally don't find this case all that interesting bar for sociological reasons as signaling trends in society.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So is the annexation of Palestine just hot air or are they genuinely considering it? What would happen if they did it and found themselves told that they are going too far by the International Community? Or would Trump possibly carry enough weight to wave it through?

The concept of annexing the West Bank/Judea and Samaria (the areas have never been part of an independent entity named Palestine, and were taken over from Jordan) is essentially just hot air because Israel does not want to take on responsibility for millions of Palestinians that would threaten Jewish sovereignty over the area. Nor would they be willing to disenfranchise those Palestinians, because that would legitimately be apartheid and wouldn't be tolerated by the center.

If the international community chooses to push the Jerusalem issue, though, I could very well see an annexation of that area plus several key Jewish regions past the green line, to make that a settled issue.

Let's be clear, though, the "international community" holds very little water in Israel right now, and even less after the EU's drone spying scandal.

[DavidB.]

It goes without saying that I support the people's hero Elor Azaria. Parrotguy has done a good job at describing his "side" of the divide on this issue and in this "culture war" in general, so here's the other side. I view this case as part of the culture war by the endangered establishment, soon to be powerless, against the right-wing movement that, due to shifting political attitudes and changing demographics, is slowly but inevitably going to take over power, both electorally and through its "march through the institutions", and change things.

I agree with hnv1 that the sociological divide is much more interesting than the case itself, even if I do find it more than baffling that so many people don't seem to be morally ok (as opposed to legally, I understand that) with Azaria's actions -- but that's probably not something to discuss here (let's keep this a bit analytical). Anyway, my prediction is that, like almost everything in Israeli politics, this will only embolden the right. To over half of the country, Elor will remain a martyr for years.

So is the annexation of Palestine just hot air or are they genuinely considering it? What would happen if they did it and found themselves told that they are going too far by the International Community? Or would Trump possibly carry enough weight to wave it through?

Bennett wants to annex area C, but almost no one wants to annex everything right  now. Israel would have to give the Palestinians voting rights. Nothing is probably going to happen (though annexing Maale Adumim during a Trump presidency, while not too likely, wouldn't be impossible).

[SATW]

Don't like the usage of the term "martyr" but I agree with most of DavidB's post.

Elor Azaria killed a terrorist, something that benefits Israel and society as a whole. However, he did violate military protocol and I believe he should be out of the military regardless of what the verdict was. Military protocol is important in almost every country, regardless of what type of governmental system it is under.

I don't think this should have not gone to court. He should've gotten the Israeli equivalent of the U.S. General Discharge (generally good service, but questionable military ethics).

But, since it did go to court, I want a pardon. This harms Israel's image with it's own military to go on a witch hunt. The world will not love Israel for throwing Elor in jail. It will now expect Israel to throw every soldier in jail if they cause even a little bit of controversy.

Allen West did more controversial things then Elor and he was able to leave with his reputation in tact.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It feels like it should have been a military excessive force trial, not a civilian manslaughter trial.

And it should go without saying that any attempt to take this trial international should be met with complete opposition and threats of retaliation against any body that cooperates.

[DavidB.]

It feels like it should have been a military excessive force trial, not a civilian manslaughter trial.

It was a military trial, not a civilian one.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It feels like it should have been a military excessive force trial, not a civilian manslaughter trial.

It was a military trial, not a civilian one.

Huh, missed that. Either way, I do think the charges were excessive.