Israel opinion poll thread

[danny]

Since there is one for the UK I thought I'd open one for Israel with this poll (link in Hebrew):

Likud: 37
Labour: 22
Kadima: 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Shas: 7

Who do you think is most suitable to be a prime minister:
Netanyahu: 41%
Yehimovich: 15%
Livni: 9%
Lieberman: 9%
other/undecided: 26%

This obviously terrible for Livni and Kadima as a lot of people only voted for Kadima in the last election because they were the only viable alternative to Likud. With polls like this there won't be much reason to vote Kadima, especially when Livni isn't really to Yehimovich's right anyway.

It's good news for Labour that is a result of replacing Barak with the much more popular Yehimovich.
And good news for Likud and Bibi who have a commanding lead right now with Kadima's collapse.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

[Sibboleth]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

I don't think they've been an especially effective opposition. There's also a new Labour leader and then there's the return of social issues (as in: issues about the structure of society and social policy) to the political landscape. Kadima doesn't have much to say about that subject. Also, parts of the Israeli electorate are very volatile.

[danny]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

I don't think they've been an especially effective opposition. There's also a new Labour leader and then there's the return of social issues (as in: issues about the structure of society and social policy) to the political landscape. Kadima doesn't have much to say about that subject. Also, parts of the Israeli electorate are very volatile.

There is that + the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange which was very popular amongst Kadima's voters but Livni opposed while Netanyahu and Yechimovich supported.

[Insula Dei]

Just when you'd think Labour's had it, eh?

[danny]

Different poll from globes:
Likud: 33
Labour: 20
Kadima: 17
Yisrael Beitenu:14
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3
Raam-Taal: 3
Balad: 3

Numbers are slightly different but with the same general trend.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Jesus christ where do you find these?

[© Tweed the Younger]

I am cutting a class right now called Israeli Labor Relations.  it's taught by a dude who used to be some sort of Judge in Israel.  now he is 71 and retired and rambles about sh**t.

[Sibboleth]

2009 results for the purposes of comparison: Kadima 28, Likud 27, YB 15, Labour 13, Shas 11. So, yeah. These numbers are pretty horrific for Kadima.

For further comparison, Likud won 38 seats in 2003, but other than that you have to go back to the 1988 election (when they won 40 seats) to see them do as well, though they did take 32 in 1996. Labour haven't managed more than 20 seats since 1996 (when they won 26 seats. Yeah, yeah. Also in an electoral pact with some smaller parties, whateversky).

[BugsBunny]

Sweet. It looks like right wing parties will keep their parliamentary majority if an election is held today.

[phk]

Thank you for doing this danny.

[danny]

A poll from Haaretz about the Iranian issue:

Should Israel attack the Iranian nuclear facilities?
yes: 41%
no: 39%
other/don't know: 20%

subgroups*:
Haredi yes: 50%
religious yes: 43%
Traditionalist yes: 45:
secular yes: 38%  no:42%
Russian yes:  37%  no:53%
Arab yes: 25%  no:54%

Do you think an attack will lead to a regional war?
high chance: 59%
medium chance: 21%
small chance/other/don't know: 20%

Do you trust the decisions made by Bibi and Barak concerning the Iranian situation?
yes: 52%
no: 37%
don't know: 11%

*a few notes about Israeli subgroups in polls:
1) Haredi/religious/Traditionalist/secular refer to the Jewish religious spectrum and does not include Arabs regardless of their religious affiliation.
2)"Religious" is a term that refers to a specific type of dress and not to all people who are religious and is separate from "haredi"
3) "Russians" refers to immigrants from all of the former USSR and not merely to modern day Russia, people in this group can be part of any of the religious grouping but are usually secular.

[Χahar]

To what extent has Barak's departure affected Labor's numbers? For that matter, how is his outfit polling? I don't see it in the poll data.

[Sibboleth]

I don't see it in the poll data.

Think that might mean that he's polling less than the margin of error.

[Χahar]

I don't see it in the poll data.

Think that might mean that he's polling less than the margin of error.

Yeah, that's what I figured. I'm not sure what type of voter his party appeals to.

[danny]

I don't see it in the poll data.

Think that might mean that he's polling less than the margin of error.

The margin of error on almost all Israeli polls is 4.5% so any party with 3-4 is within that.  Since Baraks party isn't listed I'm assuming it means he simply isn't passing the minimum 2%.
The effect on labours numbers has been positive since Baraks unpopularity caused labour's voters to look elsewhere (mostly Kadima) who are now coming back, with the popular shelly.

[King]

42% of Israel supports an act that 81% believe will result in all out war in the region?

Such a peaceful nation we must pray for.

[You kip if you want to...]

42% of Israel supports an act that 81% believe will result in all out war in the region?

Such a peaceful nation we must pray for.

Don't be such an anti-semite.

I'm kidding.

[danny]

42% of Israel supports an act that 81% believe will result in all out war in the region?

Such a peaceful nation we must pray for.

But if you think that not doing this action will still lead to war, just one where the other side has nuclear weapons...

[Jacobtm]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

Sharon died.

[Nhoj]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

Sharon died.

Well technically hes still "alive".

[danny]

Since I don't know much about Israeli politics, why did Kadima collapsed so badly?

Sharon died.

Well technically hes still "alive".

And, more importantly, Sharon was never the head of Kadima during an election so he certainly can't be the reason for the recent collapse. This has to do with Livni's bad leadership and some good political moves from her opponents.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If my numbers are right, poll averaging, things look like this:

35   -   Likud
21   -   Labour
17   -   Kadima
15   -   Yisrael B.
9   -   Shas
5   -   U.T.J.
3   -   Nat Union
3   -   Hadash
3   -   Jew. Home
3   -   Meretz
3   -   Raam-Taal
3   -   Balad

[danny]

If my numbers are right, poll averaging, things look like this:

35   -   Likud
21   -   Labour
17   -   Kadima
15   -   Yisrael B.
9   -   Shas
5   -   U.T.J.
3   -   Nat Union
3   -   Hadash
3   -   Jew. Home
3   -   Meretz
3   -   Raam-Taal
3   -   Balad

I only only found data for the first 5 parties in the first poll so unless you're basing these numbers on a poll not listed here the small parties numbers should be identical to the second one.

[Peter the Lefty]

So the right is gaining ground, but Labor is strengthening mostly due to a Kadima collapse, and Meretz appears to be stuck where it is.  Interesting.