Israel opinion poll thread

[danny]

Wow- Kadima has fallen... what is "There Is A Future"? I've tried to look it up...

Yair Lapid's new party.

[danny]

Poll conducted yesterday (after the new of new coalition):

Likud: 33
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Kadima: 11
Shas: 8
Future: 6
UTJ: 6
Meretz:6
Jewish Home- National Union: 5
Arab parties- 10

Do you support the new coalition agreement:

Yes: 39.6%
No: 31.9
Don't know: 28.4%

Who is most suitable to be prime minister:

Bibi: 39.8%
Shelly: 11.3%
Lapid: 7%
Mofaz: 4.5%
Lieberman: 4.2%

[danny]

New poll:

Likud- 30
Labour-20
Future- 17
Yisrael Beitenu- 12
Shas-6
National Union- 6
Meretz- 6
UTJ- 5
Hadash-4
Kadima- 3 (lol)
Jewish Home- 3
Balad- 3
UAL- 3
Independence- 2

Lapid seems to be the biggest gainer from Kadima entering the coalition.

[Insula Dei]

Kadima...

[ag]

New Lapid seems to be the biggest gainer from Kadima entering the coalition.

And Barak ) He might, actually, get to stay in the Knesset )

It seems, my sense of Israeli politics hasn't been THAT bad, has it?

[Sibboleth]

hahaha

[danny]

It seems the next election will continue the tradition of Israeli centrist parties quickly rising up and then disappearing and being replaced by a new centrist party.

[danny]

New poll from globes:

Likud: 33
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 8
Future: 8
Kadima: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
UAL-TAAL: 3
Independence: 2

Relatively Better for Kadima and worse for Lapid.

[danny]

New poll by channel 10:

Likud- 29
Labour- 17
Yisrael Beitenu- 15
Kadima- 10
Future- 10
Shas- 9
UTJ- 6
Meretz- 4
Hadash- 4
Jewish Home- 3
National Union- 3
UAL- 3
Balad- 3
Aryeh Deri- 2
Independence- 2

[Free Palestine]

What is Labor's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict?  I was going to say "looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual," but then I couldn't find anything in Labor's Wiki page.  I like to keep my snarks factually accurate.

[Vosem]

What is Labor's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict?  I was going to say "looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual," but then I couldn't find anything in Labor's Wiki page.  I like to keep my snarks factually accurate.

By tradition, Labor has a hawkish wing and a more peaceful wing, and recently the peaceful wing has been ascendant, as Ehud Barak, a key leader of the more hawkish Laborites, left to form his own party, Independence. Labor is largely a majority-Jewish party but has a significant Arab minority, of which the most prominent member is Knesset member Raleb Majadele, who was the first-ever Arab member of the Israeli Cabinet. Danny is probably going to come online and say all this is wrong, as usual when I try to explain Israeli politics

Honestly, the top-line of this poll (Likud in first way ahead, Labor in second just ahead of Yisrael Beiteinu) isn't very interesting, but it seems Kadima has been surging at the expense of Yesh Atid, and the predicted split between the Kadima-left and Kadima-right hasn't happened -- has Shaul Mofaz's decision to join the government proved smarter than we thought? Or is this an outlier, or maybe Kadima has bounced back but won't be bouncing any further? Help us, danny!

[danny]

What is Labor's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict?  I was going to say "looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual," but then I couldn't find anything in Labor's Wiki page.  I like to keep my snarks factually accurate.

Likud has been ahead in all the polls for a long time so you can snark away.

As for Labour's positions, they are more dovish than Likud but to you they would still count as HPs, as they still backed the government in regards to the Marmara, and were members of the coalition during Cast Lead and The Second Lebanon war.

[Free Palestine]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

[danny]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

[Free Palestine]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

Not quite.  I like Hadash, which isn't an exclusively Arab party.

[danny]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

Not quite.  I like Hadash, which isn't an exclusively Arab party.

I said the 3 Arab parties parties for a reason. I do that because a large majority of the electorate is Arab, the same way you can call all the other parties Jewish, even though their electorate isn't made up entirely of Jews.

[NY Jew]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

I'm sure he'll like Meretz their more pro terrorist then some of the Arab partie's MKs

[Free Palestine]

pro terrorist

lol

[The Mikado]

Israeli politics is a depressing, tragicomic spectacle.

Wait, what's wrong with that sentence?

Ah, yes.

Israeli politics is a depressing, tragicomic spectacle.

I suppose, as I did ten years ago, that I theoretically back Lapid.  (Different Lapid, but that's a technicality)

[Peter the Lefty]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

[danny]

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

While I am sure they would lose support, I don't think this is the reason. I think they simply support those things. There really isn't much difference between Likud, Labour and Kadima when it comes to the use of force against the enemy, the differences are on other issues.

[Peter the Lefty]

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

While I am sure they would lose support, I don't think this is the reason. I think they simply support those things. There really isn't much difference between Likud, Labour and Kadima when it comes to the use of force against the enemy, the differences are on other issues.

But why not at least to varying degrees?  It's pretty shocking that so many people on all parts of the political spectrum would support Operation Cast Lead and the 2nd Lebanon war in their entirety. 

[danny]

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

While I am sure they would lose support, I don't think this is the reason. I think they simply support those things. There really isn't much difference between Likud, Labour and Kadima when it comes to the use of force against the enemy, the differences are on other issues.

But why not at least to varying degrees?  It's pretty shocking that so many people on all parts of the political spectrum would support Operation Cast Lead and the 2nd Lebanon war in their entirety. 

It was to varying degrees, It's just that in Labour's case, they were in the coalition and led by a relatively similar party on this issue so it makes sense for them to support it. Meretz to the left supported some action, but went against it somewhere in the middle. Netanyahu, on the right said after Cast Lead that he would have continued with it longer and said that the government ended it too soon.

[danny]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

On the other hand we have this poll:

Likud 37
Labour 16
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future 9
Shas 7
Kadima 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 6
Jewish Home 5
National Union 4
"Arab parties" 11

[Speaker Dereich]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

What kind of government would come out of an election like that?