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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #325 on: November 14, 2014, 07:30:38 PM »

Is there a reason Lieberman and Kachlon would not back Bennett?

Also, what is your take on the likelihood of a Bennett victory?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #326 on: November 15, 2014, 01:34:21 AM »

It's hard to imagine Bennett as prime minister. His tenure would either with him abandoning his entire platform or with the EU imposing an embargo.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #327 on: November 15, 2014, 04:05:00 AM »

Is there a reason Lieberman and Kachlon would not back Bennett?

Also, what is your take on the likelihood of a Bennett victory?
doubt it, JH will no doubtly surge but if it will appear as if they might get the most votes I'm sure there will be tactical voting that will put another party at the top (probably Likud or one of the centre left).

Lieberman is craving the PM position, he wants to heir Bibi as the right wing leader and crowning Bennet won't help there. Regarding Kachlon, he is right wing but I think he will prefer a more legitemate centre coalition (no economic reforms when you're getting boycotted around the world).
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #328 on: November 15, 2014, 04:11:02 AM »

I've seen a couple of articles about Lieberman become Prime Minister under a centrist government (presumably YB YA Labor, Linvi and Kahlon).

http://www.timesofisrael.com/fed-up-with-netanyahu-some-look-to-liberman/
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Hnv1
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« Reply #329 on: November 15, 2014, 05:52:06 AM »

I've seen a couple of articles about Lieberman become Prime Minister under a centrist government (presumably YB YA Labor, Linvi and Kahlon).

http://www.timesofisrael.com/fed-up-with-netanyahu-some-look-to-liberman/
there had been talks about an alternative coalition to boot Bibi out before or after the election. I assume they will include Liberman but as he is not the head of the largest party from the bloc nor will he be I can't see him becoming PM.

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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #330 on: November 15, 2014, 09:27:52 PM »

Maagor Mochot Poll:

Likud: 25
Bayit Yehudi: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 7
Kachlon: 6
Hadash: 4
Hatnuah: 3
Raam Taal: 3
Balad: 3

Why is there such a difference between Maagor and Panels? Lieberman's result here is double what he's gotten in the last few Panels polls. Which of them is more accurate?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #331 on: November 16, 2014, 07:59:33 PM »

Apparently both Netanyahu and the center-left are trying to court the haredim to join a coalition with them.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.626814

Thing is, I don't think Netanyahu has the mandates to do this. Presumably if he sacks Lapid, Livni also leaves, and Likud, Beitenu, JH, Shas, and UTJ combined only have 61 seats. I can't see that working for Bibi, and Lieberman's animosity to the haredim has also grown.

I also don't see a Center-Left-Haredi coalition being any more viable than a Center-Left-Lieberman coalition.

Anyways it seems elections are a foregone conclusion:

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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #332 on: November 17, 2014, 04:52:56 PM »

New Poll (Midgam/Channel 10)
Likud- 22
Bayit Yehudi- 17
Yesh Atid- 14
Labor- 13
Yisrael Beiteinu- 9
Kachlon- 9
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 7
Shas- 6
Hatnuah- 4
Arab Parties- 11
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #333 on: November 18, 2014, 01:39:32 PM »

Presumably everyone has seen the news today, but, anyway, not good.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #334 on: November 18, 2014, 02:41:56 PM »

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #335 on: November 18, 2014, 03:33:04 PM »

Bibi invites everyone through Meretz to join his coalition.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.627238
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Vosem
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« Reply #336 on: November 18, 2014, 04:28:56 PM »

So what exactly is the issue with the 2015 budget that it's so controversial a new election must be called?

(Have obviously seen today's news, but beyond general sadness there's little to be said about it).
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #337 on: November 18, 2014, 04:59:28 PM »

One of the big things is that Lapid wants to institute a tax on medical vacations by foreigners. It's opposed by Lieberman because a lot of the foreigners who come to Israel for medical treatment are Russian, plus there's a major hospital they're planning to be built in Lieberman-favorable Ashdod.

There's also the VAT exemption for first time home buyers Lapid is trying to push through, and which is getting stalled by Bibi. Also an attempt to establish a little bit of transparency in the JNF.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #338 on: November 19, 2014, 08:16:38 AM »

So what exactly is the issue with the 2015 budget that it's so controversial a new election must be called?

(Have obviously seen today's news, but beyond general sadness there's little to be said about it).
Well there will be a huge deficit in the 2016 because of the Gaza war. everyone understand this will be the last budget before the election. Lapid tries to move most of the problems to the 2016 budget (bad) but he's also trying to do some needed reforms in this one (good).
A reform to the health system to try to reverse the negative effects of private health care is being opposed by Liberman for said reasons.
The JNF, which has a huge budget not being monitored by anyone and is used for jobs for politicos (mainly by Lberman and the Likud), was suppose to give the state around a billion NIS in return for no actual reform or nationalisation. Not the best solution but at least something. The right for obvious reasons is trying to stop this.
Lapid has a plan for no VAT in the purchase of the first flat (which is opposed by well everyone from left to right), he is determined to pass it and he says that otherwise he's leaving the coalition. Bibi opposes this on economic reasons (I have to say I agree with him), Liberman is just a dirty politian, Bennet won't help pass it unless the 'Jewish state and nation act' is passed.

Meanwhile, a third intifada is starting to roll on the horizon. I think this government will survive for a bit longer but by midsummer  we'll see an election.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #339 on: November 19, 2014, 09:07:54 AM »

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.

If Hamas start launching rockets again, they're done; Israel will go full invasion of Gaza.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #340 on: November 19, 2014, 12:45:40 PM »

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.

If Hamas start launching rockets again, they're done; Israel will go full invasion of Gaza.
I don't think this directly leads to rocket fire from Gaza. Unlike with the kidnappings, we a) know who did it and b) know they were lone wolves. There won't be any rounding up West Bank Hamas Operatives (unless Bibi goes full on insane)

hnv1, how much do you think this hurts the left?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #341 on: November 19, 2014, 12:56:10 PM »

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.

If Hamas start launching rockets again, they're done; Israel will go full invasion of Gaza.
I don't think this directly leads to rocket fire from Gaza. Unlike with the kidnappings, we a) know who did it and b) know they were lone wolves. There won't be any rounding up West Bank Hamas Operatives (unless Bibi goes full on insane)

hnv1, how much do you think this hurts the left?
define the left...Meretz will probably rise a bit. Labour on the other hand...Herzog is doing everything right but is still failing. If they get some Ex-generals to their ballot and Livni and such would be willing to be under his leadership they might score a fair result (around 20).
Diskin who flirted a bit with entering the game said he's out for this one, which is a bit of blow for Herzog who has no 'defence' angle on his list ATM.
It's an interesting situation, Bibi is very much unpopular as ever yet no one seems to be able to look like a valid candidate against him.

Regarding the Intifada. The second one saw a strong surge for the right (with understandable reasons at the time), but the third one looks like it will be more similar to the first one which tilted the balance a bit to the left. With the dynamics of a rolling intifada there's not much a PM can do to stop it or not look like he can't control it (like Barak). Bibi is in serious fear of losing his Mr security image. The question is who will challenge it? Bennet or someone from the centre?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #342 on: November 19, 2014, 01:23:29 PM »

So is Labor basically irrecoverable at this point?

Also, do you know if/where I could find a list of all Meretz officeholders at the local level in Israel? I was just curious in possibly making a map of it.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #343 on: November 19, 2014, 02:57:58 PM »

So Gabi Ashkenazi is just a tease who will never actually run?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #344 on: November 19, 2014, 04:28:50 PM »

Considering the police just recommended that he stand trial 2 months ago, I don't think he's going anywhere/
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #345 on: November 20, 2014, 06:44:47 AM »

You guys see this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/20/world/middleeast/israel-demolishes-family-home-of-palestinian-driver-who-killed-2-pedestrians.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&bicmp=AD&bicmlukp=WT.mc_id&bicmst=1409232722000&bicmet=1419773522000&_r=1

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Civilians are being punished for crimes committed by people who are already dead.  Disgusting.   

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #346 on: November 20, 2014, 08:44:30 AM »

It could be argued that the family should have stopped him or shopped him, but that's something that needs to be proved in a court of law.

This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #347 on: November 20, 2014, 12:13:05 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2014, 12:18:35 PM by MalaspinaGold »

It's more Bibi trying to score points with the right than anything.
The security establishment has told him this is a dumb idea.

EDIT: New poll! (Knesset Channel)
20 Likud
19 Bayit Yehudi
13 Yesh Atid
13 Labor
9 Kachlon
8 Yisrael Beitenu
8 Meretz
8 UTJ
7 Shas
7 Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
4 Movement
4 Hadash

Labor at 13 (!) and 1 madate between Likud and Bennett(!!!)
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The Mikado
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« Reply #348 on: November 20, 2014, 03:19:32 PM »

What would happen if Jewish Home and Likud tie in terms of the number of MKs they win?

Also, is Naftali Bennett for real or are his extremist plans a way to set up a negotiating position?  Annexing 70% of the West Bank and turning the completely-surrounded-by-Israel rump West Bank into a militarily-occupied Bantustan seems...bold.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #349 on: November 20, 2014, 03:29:52 PM »

No, that's Bennett. Messianism does bad things to a person's brain.
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