Israel general discussion

[MalaspinaGold]

This is Geocartography, the Israeli Zogby, so take with a couple kilograms of salt.
27  Likud
19 Bayit Yehudi
17 Yisrael Beitenu
10 Labor
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
8 Kachlon Party
6 Yesh Atid
5 Shas
5 Meretz
5 Green Leaf
10 Arab Parties

At least I'm taking it with a couple kilograms of salt- otherwise the right wing would be sitting at 84 seats right now.

[danny]

Geocartography is a joke pollster, don't treat it seriously.

[MalaspinaGold]

New poll! (From TRI)
Likud-27
Jewish Home-17
Labor-12
Yesh Atid-10
Shas-10
Yisrael Beiteinu- 8
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 8
Kachlon- 6
Hatnuah- 3
Arab Parties- 11

I don't see Likud that high or Labor that low, but everything else looks plausible

[Hnv1]

Government passed the 'Jewish Nation' act. on Wed. it goes to the knesset, by law all coalition members are obliged to vote yes. Lapid andd Livni announced they and their parties will oppose what will mean Bibi will have to fire them.

[MalaspinaGold]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

[Hnv1]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

Haredi MKs don't usually vote on constitutional laws from what I recall.
If YA and Livni oppose the bill will fall with the aid of the opposition.

[MalaspinaGold]

Looks like the vote has been postponed by a week. Bibi getting cold feet.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.628223

[Famous Mortimer]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

Haredi MKs don't usually vote on constitutional laws from what I recall.
If YA and Livni oppose the bill will fall with the aid of the opposition.

Shas would probably vote for it but not UTJ since UTJ is still opposed to Zionism as an ideology, I believe that's why they don't ever take positions in the cabinet (although they accept deputy positions).

[MalaspinaGold]

If this is any indication, Shas would not look to kindly at it either:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.628501

[Hnv1]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

Haredi MKs don't usually vote on constitutional laws from what I recall.
If YA and Livni oppose the bill will fall with the aid of the opposition.

Shas would probably vote for it but not UTJ since UTJ is still opposed to Zionism as an ideology, I believe that's why they don't ever take positions in the cabinet (although they accept deputy positions).

Shas won't vote on a bill saying a Jewish state is nothing else then a religious Jewish state. and it doesn't matter 95% of their voters are for it

With the coming Likud elections and maybe general ones as well Bibi is really breaking to the right

[MalaspinaGold]

2 new polls today:

Knesset Channel
Likud-23
Bayit-Yehudi-18
Labor-14
Yesh Atid-13
UTJ-8
Meretz-8
Beitenu-7
Shas-7
Raam-Taal/Balad-7
Kachlon-7
Hatnua-4
Hadash-4

Smith/Globes
Likud-23
Bayit Yehudi-16
Labor-15
Beiteinu- 11
Yesh Atid-10
Shas-10
Kachlon-9
Meretz-8
UTJ-7
Hadash-5
Raam-Taal-3
Balad-3

EDIT: Has anyone seen any polls on the Jewish State bill?

[MalaspinaGold]

New Haaretz Poll:

Likud: 24
Bayit Yehudi: 16
Labor: 13
Kachlon: 12
Yesh Atid: 11
Beiteinu: 11
UTJ: 8
Shas: 6
Meretz: 6
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4

[Hnv1]

Regarding the Haaretz poll it was quite unique that it used the new threshold and it concluded undecided (29 seats according to it are up for grabs).

More from it:
Who is best fitted to be PM?
Bibi 35% (42% last poll); Herzog 17% (12%); Liberman 8% (11%); Lapid 7% (4%); Bennet 6% (11%); don't know 27% (20%).

Herzog is rising a bit and I think Labour are being under polled. If he plays his cards right he might be able to actually challange Bibi.

[MalaspinaGold]

Is most of Herzog's support coming from Meretz, or what?

[Hnv1]

Is most of Herzog's support coming from Meretz, or what?

The core is Meretz and Labour but I think he's getting a bit of a swing from the centre and Labour are having YA phase - they are circling 14 at the polls but come election day they will swing up like what happened to Lapid.

[MalaspinaGold]

AAAAND Bibi calls snap elections.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.629512?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Hnv1]

Bibi sacks Livni and Lapid. The Knesset will need to vote to dissolve and then an election will be held in 90-120 days

[politicus]

Still not seeing the point of getting a new thread, when this one is still so short. So reposting dead0mans post here:

Israeli tanker fuels Jordanian F16s on way to exercise in Nevada.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good news.

[Hnv1]

SCoJ declares the tenure of Litzman as Deputy Minister of Health with full ministerial power unconstitutional and orders a full time minister appointed in 60 days. UTJ will probably embrace this (according to some journalists) and for the first time they will have a minister in title.

Interesting developments out of this:
- Ashkenaz Haredi "anti-zionists" stance is slowly and steadily breaking with the extremist faction under Rabbi Oirbach forming a new party called Bnei Torah I expect with break away soon with lots of younger members of the community getting closer to Zionism and voting JH
- Bibi's plan of shipping Danon to the UN and appointing one of his trustees Begin\Hanegbi to a ministerial position is thwarted (unless the change they law again to allow the cabinet to expand)
- Lapid has a small victory here (his party is responsible for the appeal) sadly he's looking more like an opposition leader than Herzog
- Ehud Barak is making some noise lately, it's always important to notice what this snake is up to.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the update (and lol @ Barak "the snake"). Israeli politics continue to be an annoying balagan.

I haven't seen any recent polls on parties' popularity. However, I've seen this New Wave poll from a few weeks ago:

Who do you think is most suitable to serve as Israeli Prime Minister?
39% Netanyahu
14% Herzog
13% Lapid
6% Kahlon
5% Lieberman
23% Don’t know

Should we keep fighting the Iran deal?
76% Yes
15% No
8% Don't know

Do you think US President Obama is concerned about Israeli interests?
73% Not concerned
20% Concerned
8% Don’t know

[Hnv1]

I take Israeli polls with 7 tonnes of salt

Likud leadership:
Channel 10 claims Jerusalem mayor Nir Barket is considering a run for Likud leadership and had thousands enrolled to the likud. unlikely, Bibi doesn't seem to be set on leaving anytime soon, Barket is not that popular among Likud politicos and he will most likely just try to get himself high up on the Knesset list.

Labour leadersship:
still no news, Holdai is undecided, so is Ashkenazi (whom Lapid is wooing quite aggressively). Yechimovic might try to regain leadership, Cabel announced he respects Herzog's leadership and Margalit is waiting just around the corner for his day. Long time expected runned Yuval Diskin announced he's out of the political field for several years.

Meretz and JH had their leadership contests prior to the election and no other party have any interior democratic process 

[danny]

I changed the title so that we wouldn't need a duplicate and to be more like the threads for the other countries.

[DavidB.]

and to be more like the threads for the other countries.

That's so Israeli Next thing you know you guys wanna join the Champions League as well. Oh wait...

[Silent Hunter]

I take Israeli polls with 7 tonnes of salt

Well, you've got the Dead Sea, so there's plenty to go round.

[politicus]

UN report says Gaza could become "uninhabitable" in five years.

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/09/gaza-united-nations/403570/