Israel general discussion

[ag]

Hadash at 5? Wow!

[ag]

Hadash at 5? Wow!

They already have 4 and 1 mandate is easily within the margin of error (4.5%), so I'm not sure what's so exciting.

Of course, you a right. But that just shows how pessimistic I am about anything that might qualify as good news coming from that country ))

[ag]

So, all these polls seem to show Labor to be the likely next biggest opposition party, not Kadima, so the Mofaz vs. Netaniyahu question becomes irrelevant.

Also, all these polls are really good for Shas - unless Kadima is wooed back into a rightwing government, Shas is the one religious party that's going to be indispensible to form it. I think, I can forecast certain budgetary appropriations ))

[ag]

Has labour ever won a government in Israel?

Is it a joke?

Labor was continuously in power in Israel from its creation (1948) till 1977. Back then it was one of those eternal governing parties, like the LDP in Japan and INC in India.

Since then, Israel has had Labor PM in 1984-86 (as part of a grand coalition), 1992-1996 and 1999-2001.

[ag]

Considering Mofaz wanted to enter the current coalition I don't think there will be much trouble for Kadima to enter the next one. Kadima should also be fine with being in coalition with Shas so a Likud+Kadima+Yisrael Beitenu+Shas+UTJ coalition is quite likely. It's also possible to replace Shas and UTJ with Lapid but I don't trust Israeli politicians with excluding the haredim.

Well, of course, the natural home of Kadima is Likud. I agree, it is quite likely they'd join a right-wing gov't - in fact, it is quite likely they'd fold back into Likud by the end of the Knesset in which they do it. There, of course, will be some (likely minor) defections to Labor in the process and the normalcy will be restored )

Israeli politicians will not exclude the haredim - for a reason. Those polls you cite give the haredim, what 20-23 seats almost consistently, w/ another 10-13 going to the Arabs+Hadash. That's 30-36 seats - very likely over a quarter of the total. Labor + Meretz are unlikely to drop much below 18 or 20 - and Labor is not going into a right-wing coalition again, given what it did to them last time. So, to form an entirely non-haredi government, it would have to be a narrow coalition, in which you'd have to rely on the loyalty of the relatively leftyish Kadima members and the likely not very predictable Lapidniks (even if they don't call them that, it sounds like a good word:) ). To be sure that it would hold for a full term, it would have to give something to these people to dissuade them from splitting off in strange directions: likely either undertake a massive secular reform agenda (making it harder to get the haredim back if anything happens), or doing something for peace (which is anathema to most of the rest of the coalition).

But even if it turns out that the Kadima holds whole and Lapidniks are good secular right-wingers, longer term it is a loosing strategy. The Arabs and the haredim will be growing - in another generation it is very likely they together will have over 40 seats as a matter of routine.  Labor will recover somewhat once Kadima is out of the way - in any case, Israel has enough leftists to reliably get 20 seats between Labor and Meretz if there is no other party claiming to be part of the Zionist left. If you want a right-wing government, you'll have to deal w/ the haredim: they are the future of any Jewish Democratic State ) In another 30 years they will be nominating the PM of their own )

[ag]

New Lapid seems to be the biggest gainer from Kadima entering the coalition.

And Barak ) He might, actually, get to stay in the Knesset )

It seems, my sense of Israeli politics hasn't been THAT bad, has it?

[ag]

Would Lapid Jr. be willing to go into a right-wing coalition w/ any of the religious parties?

[ag]

since the issue of Syrian refugees has come up, a poll has been done about with very definitive results:

Do you support or oppose accepting refugees in Israel?

Oppose: 80%
Support: 11%
Don't know: 9%


Bibi is definitely with most Israelis on this issue.

Good. very glad to see most Israelis are sensible on this.

Sane! Not accepting war-torn refugees is the f*king sane person.

Not accepting them in Israel almost certainly is. Decisions don't occur in moral vacuums distinct from reality. An employee of Wal-Mart is not evil because he fails to donate $100,000 to help a Syrian family or any less moral than a billionaire.

That said, Israel should probably donate to help resettle the refugees elsewhere.

'

How does Isreal, as well as other countries, get a pass for not taking in refugees. Especially Isreal, which gets the coddlement of the US and most western countries, and the highest military aid from the US, get the pass of not taking the humane position of taking in refugees

Israel is at war with Syria. So, I guess, it could be validly claimed to be a special case.

Now, the much more serious issue is that the situation highlights the need for a Palestinian state. At the very elast, there are hundreds of thousands of people of Palestinian origin in Syria who would have been happily accepted into Palestine - if a Palestinian government would be free to make such a decision. That is even without considering the fact that Palestine may have accepted Syrians as refugees as well.

I would give Israelis the pass on accomodating refugees inside Israel proper. But what should be requested is Israel letting PA to admit, at the very least, Palestinian refugees from Syria and Iraq. And, of course, PA should be helped accomodating the resettlement - I am sure even Danes would be quite happy to pay their share for this

[ag]

You would be paying for ending Israeli occupation, not for prolonging it. Extra half a million Palestinians in the West Bank makes it so much less likely for Israel to keep the land.

[ag]

Because a sizable number of very violent people don't want that.  It's, apparently, better to try to appease these people instead of killing them.  The problem is, they don't want to be appeased.  They want what they want and if they don't get it, they will murder and convince others to murder.  Get rid of those people, stop making more of them and there will be peace in less than a year.

Of course even if we went with that solution, it would still be an amazingly hard road.  There are no easy answers here.

I did not expect such a strong anti-Zionist tirade from you.

[ag]

Why the hell does he do it? What is the motivation?

[ag]

Ideologically coherent Israeli government. Hard to object to that, as long as I do not much care for Israel. I, actually, much prefer this to Labor getting into this mess. Herzog should be kicked out.