Israel general discussion

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"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

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"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

Since the poll includes purely hypothetical parties that have yet to be founded (if they ever will), I don't this poll should be included in any averaging anyway.

D'oh! But I do still have a question...

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

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Could you explain why Netanyahu would want an early election? I'm not sure why not just wait until early 2013, when it was supposed to be held.

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Wow- Kadima has fallen... what is "There Is A Future"? I've tried to look it up...

It's known colloquially in Hebrew as 'Atid' -- it's English Wikipedia article is pathetic, but here's a link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atid_(political_party)

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What is Labor's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict?  I was going to say "looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual," but then I couldn't find anything in Labor's Wiki page.  I like to keep my snarks factually accurate.

By tradition, Labor has a hawkish wing and a more peaceful wing, and recently the peaceful wing has been ascendant, as Ehud Barak, a key leader of the more hawkish Laborites, left to form his own party, Independence. Labor is largely a majority-Jewish party but has a significant Arab minority, of which the most prominent member is Knesset member Raleb Majadele, who was the first-ever Arab member of the Israeli Cabinet. Danny is probably going to come online and say all this is wrong, as usual when I try to explain Israeli politics

Honestly, the top-line of this poll (Likud in first way ahead, Labor in second just ahead of Yisrael Beiteinu) isn't very interesting, but it seems Kadima has been surging at the expense of Yesh Atid, and the predicted split between the Kadima-left and Kadima-right hasn't happened -- has Shaul Mofaz's decision to join the government proved smarter than we thought? Or is this an outlier, or maybe Kadima has bounced back but won't be bouncing any further? Help us, danny!

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Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

I think YB would be a more likely partner than Labour, and even if Labour is there that doesn't necessarily exclude YB from also being there. YB is actually a natural partner to have in a secular coalition, especially one headed by Likud.

So, with that result, a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima-Independence or a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima coalition is likely?

Independence was created specifically to be in coalition with Likud and YB...

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How are some of the smaller, newer parties doing (obviously not counting Yesh Atid, we know about them)? Things like Atzmaut (Barak's party), Tikun (apparently, Aryeh Deri was forming a party), Am Shalem (some random Shas breakoff), and that weird Arab Zionist party Wikipedia has an article on founded by an ex-Arab member of Likud named Sarhan Bader (he's calling it the Israeli Arab Nationalist Party)?

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"Right-religious" majority (as defined in the 2013 campaign), 64-56. The government as it is formed today (right-religious, minus Shas and UTJ, plus Yesh Atid and the Movement) has only 52 seats. This would basically be a shift from today's government to a 2009-2013 government, with a religious cohort instead of a centrist one and Netanyahu staying as PM. Ironically Israel's current party system is much like Germany's, where the right side of the spectrum has temporarily become dominant and voters get the choice between empowering the "center-left" to form a coalition with them (Yesh Atid/SPD) or an "unusual right" (religious in Israel (Shas), libertarianish in Germany (FDP)).

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Why is Lapid so unpopular? Is it because of his coalition with Bibi, or a different reason?

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From what I understand, I didn't think a full-on new Netanyahu party was a possibility -- I thought Netanyahu wanted to take himself and a few loyal defectors (like Gamliel/Steinitz) into Yisrael Beiteinu and crown Lieberman as his successor. I didn't think Netanyahu personally had the sort of appeal to personally create a new party and come in first, like that poll shows.

Also, who would break away with Netanyahu?

I'm guessing Rubi Rivlin and Tzachi Hanegbi would be the only sure bets. Maybe Yisrael Katz? Livnat???

Netanyahu strongly backed Rivlin being replaced with Edelstein as Knesset Speaker after the 2013 election.

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Interesting though surely inaccurate, I think Liberman will fall harder then that on his own.

Really? He won 15 seats on his own in 2009, and 11 as part of the alliance in 2013, and it's a longstanding rule in politics that adding two parties together you generally get less than you would had both run separately. What has Lieberman done since then that he can't expect such support?

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If Livni wants to be in the next Knesset, she probably has to withdraw from the government prior to the elections, perhaps sometime next year. It worked for Labor, 2011-2013, and in a reverse example, Yisrael Beiteinu 2008-2009.

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Or she'll just merge with Labor.

She can't do that if she's in the government and Labor's in the opposition...

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So what exactly is the issue with the 2015 budget that it's so controversial a new election must be called?

(Have obviously seen today's news, but beyond general sadness there's little to be said about it).

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After Danon's resignation and replacement by Canadian-born Sharren Haskel, 2 more members of the Knesset have resigned: Shai Piron of Yesh Atid, who was Minister of Education under the Likud-YA coalition, who will be replaced by former Hatnuah MK Elazar Stern, and Sharon (in fact a guy) Gal, a newly-elected MK from Yisrael Beiteinu, who will return to his career in journalism; he is replaced by Oded Forer, a former bureaucrat from the Ministry of Immigrant Absorption.

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A new poll by Maagar Mochot:

Likud: 31
ZU: 20
Yesh Atid: 15
Joint List:13
Jewish Home: 9
Shas: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Kulanu: 5

The current government is at 59, the opposition is at 61. However, it is still impossible, under these numbers, to create a government that is not Likud-led.

In an odd historical twist, Israel and Germany are in very similar political situations right now. In both countries, the largest right-wing party has won the last three elections straight, sometimes with a grand coalition (Netanyahu allied with Avoda 2009-2011, and with Yesh Atid 2013-2014) and sometimes not. It's difficult to see the left take power in either country, and in both countries it is severely hampered by the existence of a "further-left" option (Die Linke in Germany and the Joint List in Israel) who it cannot form a coalition with but whose voters it needs if it is ever to have a chance at forming government.

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I hope Netanyahu will step down after this term.

One of the issues in Israeli politics is how profoundly, profoundly unusual stepping aside is for a national leader; it's very unusual for an Israeli political leader to step down (besides Ben-Gurion, who stepped down twice but was trying to return to power both times inside of two years, the only two Israeli Prime Ministers who've stepped down voluntarily were Meir and Begin -- and had Begin lived later, he might've been diagnosed with clinical depression, so in a certain sense the only Israeli Prime Minister to step down because they felt their time had passed, and who stuck with that decision, was Golda Meir. A quick survey of Israeli Prime Ministers:

Ben-Gurion: stepped aside voluntarily in 1954 but reconsidered within a year (successfully); stepped aside voluntarily in 1963 but reconsidered within two years (unsuccessfully)
Sharett: forced out by own party, 1955
Eshkol: died, 1969
Meir: stepped aside voluntarily, 1974 (only really pure example)
Rabin: forced out by own party under ethical cloud, 1977; assassinated, 1995
Begin: stepped aside voluntarily, 1983, but had fallen into depression by this time
Shamir: stepped out under power-sharing agreement, 1984; defeated, 1992
Peres: stepped out under power-sharing agreement, 1986; defeated, 1996
Netanyahu (first time): defeated, 1999
Barak: defeated, 2001
Sharon: fell into coma, 2006
Olmert: forced out by own party, 2009

So, Israeli politics is historically so volatile (a majority of the time) or so dominated by one individual (a minority of the time) that the country has failed to develop a tradition of leaders eventually stepping aside. (There is also not a tradition of politicians stepping aside due to age; Shimon Peres, who was an important figure in Israeli diplomacy in the 1950s, fought his first election in 1977, fought his last election in 1996, and was still fighting for party leadership in 2005, at age 82, and did not leave politics until 2014. If Netanyahu is still trying to cling to Likud leadership at age 82, this will happen in 2034.)

The point is, I find it difficult to envision Netanyahu going quietly into the night. He will remain until he is overthrown, whether by election defeat (seems unlikely in the immediate future), by intraparty rivals (likewise), by scandal (likewise), or by a biological condition (likewise). There is very little precedent in Israeli politics for leadership figures stepping down of their own volition.

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Because a sizable number of very violent people don't want that.  It's, apparently, better to try to appease these people instead of killing them.  The problem is, they don't want to be appeased.  They want what they want and if they don't get it, they will murder and convince others to murder.  Get rid of those people, stop making more of them and there will be peace in less than a year.

Of course even if we went with that solution, it would still be an amazingly hard road.  There are no easy answers here.

I did not expect such a strong anti-Zionist tirade from you.

I suggest you read the paragraph again

It's probably the least least worst/only workable option though. I expect Israeli will see a swift, unexpected Soviet style collapse in the next 20 years.

Israel will not see a "Soviet-style" collapse because Israel (especially if, like most people in this thread seem to, you define Israel by pre-1967 borders) is not a geographically polarized multinational state. As Ernest also pointed out, the only force that comes remotely close to being able to topple the current Israeli system is further-right-wing Zionists (and in any scenario where they come to power it is one where they have reached an understanding with America and continue to benefit from American support); at no point in the history of the entire State of Israel has it been more safe from outside threats.

This constant prediction of Israel's impending collapse even as it continues to strengthen strongly reminds me of medieval European attitudes towards the Ottoman Empire. Even at its very peak, when Suleiman the Magnificent was reigning, medieval European sources were totally, utterly confident that the state was on the verge of collapse. (I suppose they did turn out to be right, in a sense; the state was ultimately replaced 300 years later by a more nationalist entity).

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Even though Sanders is the most Israeli critical of all the serious presidential candidates, a lot of holier than thou leftists who are always anxious to call people out want to pin him as being pro-Israel. This is a major problem because most young people in America (his base) are basically pro-Hamas.

This Sanders supporter is Pro-Palestine. I'm not anti-Semitic, I'm against the terrorist state that is Israel. They're a parasitic country. The United States owes Israel nothing. My allegiance is to America, not Israel.

Remember: Israel needs America. Not the other way around.

Well, aren't you charming.

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You're not even repeating the old lies so we can rebuke you. You're just stringing together random negative buzzwords.

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You're not even repeating the old lies so we can rebuke you. You're just stringing together random negative buzzwords.

What lies? That Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir were terrorists? They wire. That Israel oppresses Palestinian children and that the real monsters are the likes of Ayelet Shaked? It's completely true.

Let Israel stand for themselves. Let Netanyahu lead the fight against ISIL. I guess the Islamic State was amongst the enormous positive reverberations he was talking about when he went before Congress in 2002.

Israel has committed evil atrocities. We must divest and they must be sent to The Hague.

These are attitudes common among Bernie supporters and under 30s in general. Israel will not be able to count on unconditional US support for much longer.

Nah, they're not. America is moving towards greater support for Israel, not less, which you can clearly see in polling over the last 15 years. College left-wing activists hate Israel, but then again, they have ever since that became fashionable in the 1980s.

You're not even repeating the old lies so we can rebuke you. You're just stringing together random negative buzzwords.

What lies?

Let me go through this post claim by claim.

That Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir were terrorists? They were.

Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir used some unsavory tactics against the British colonizers, I won't deny that, but then so has every other independence movement in history. Regardless, two men who used unsavory tactics 70 years ago and were last relevant in the Israeli leadership more than 25 years ago don't explain why we shouldn't support Israel now.

That Israel oppresses Palestinian children and that the real monsters are the likes of Ayelet Shaked? It's completely true.

If you really think Israel is oppressing Palestinian children, as opposed to the government that bans music and uses them as human shields, you need to rethink your entire worldview. Ayelet Shaked is Justice Minister and has nothing to do with treatment of Palestinian leadership.

Let Israel stand for themselves.

Why? Why should we give up on a fantastic ally that has been unfairly maligned for its entire existence for entirely racist reasons?

Let Netanyahu lead the fight against ISIL.

Unfortunately, the folks on the frontlines against ISIL are unwilling to fight alongside the evil Zionists. If this were not the case, you can rest assured Israel would be there.

I guess the Islamic State was amongst the enormous positive reverberations he was talking about when he went before Congress in 2002.

Israel has committed evil atrocities. We must divest and they must be sent to The Hague.

First of all -- divestment (which I had the great pleasure to speak out against earlier today at a student government event here at OSU) is an absolutely terrible idea, especially because it would disproportionately hurt the exact same Palestinian children you seemed so concerned about just a few short sentences ago (since many, many Israeli companies employ Palestinians). The leadership of the Palestinian Authority have spoken out against it numerous times over. Unless you're both very anti-Semitic and very anti-Arab/Islamophobic, there's zero reason for you to support divestment.

You keep mentioning the evil atrocities. I'll accept there were crimes committed during the 1940s and 1950s (though they were far outweighed by the reverse ones, and ultimately justified in the context of the time), but I challenge you to find a single one after 1960.

Finally, I long to see the day when the present Gazan leadership is at the Hague (or, even better: put up against the wall by the people they've been oppressing since 2007). Israel will never be there, as you well know.

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Yawn. New trashposter spotted. Enjoy ignore, Berniebro.

This thread is about politics in Israel, not about your irrelevant opinion of Israel.

God grant me, some day, this attitude when I read ignorance.

Israel will only never be there as long as AIPAC has a firm grip on American politics. Almost every other country around the world can see Israel's crimes.

Except with a few Western European nations, Israel is at the best place, diplomatically, it's been in a long time. It has back-channel relations with numerous Arab nations (especially those that are also very anti-Iran), it has great relations with the US, with India, China, and Russia. And even in Europe, you still have great relations with Germany and Britain. The times when large sections of the world refused to recognize Israel are over, and they're not coming back.

I'm sure we do, but criticizing Israel in this country is an unofficial crime in and of itself.

Not at all. I was just at an event where a bunch of people spoke out in favor of Divest. Criticizing Israel isn't popular because they're on the right, moral side of a conflict that has plagued them for far too long, and everyone recognizes that.

Israel is not an ally. It is a parasitic nation. Every parasite needs a host to survive. The United States, unfortunately, is that host.

Israel was created without US backing and didn't obtain significant US backing until after the first 20 years of its existence. It's a modern, vibrant, First World nation that escaped the last recession and is one of the 10 most militarily powerful nations in the world. Israel could survive without its alliance with the US (though it would be much harder), and certainly benefits much more from it than the US does (though Israeli advances in military and other technology have greatly benefited the US), but its dishonest to say the US doesn't benefit from the alliance as well and its dishonest to say there is not a compelling moral reason to continue it.

I'm not arguing for the destruction if Israel but rather repercussions for the things they have done.

As far as post 1960 goes, just look up the number of UN resolutions they have violated.

Ah, yes. It's not like a UN resolution has ever been taken back or apologized for, and it's not like the US isn't made up of perfectly moral actors who have never done anything wrong. Certainly no dictatorships or otherwise imperfect regimes have membership in that body.

Keep in mind I'm not a fan of Sharia Law by any stretch of the imagination. Let's not pretend like Israel is this perfect country that does no wrong. I saw a story last year of an Israeli politician advocating for segregated roads between the two groups. That's apartheid.

Hey, I heard a story about an American politician who wanted to prevent all Muslims from entering the country. That's racism.

You can't tar an entire country based on one politician.

Did you read the comments Shaked made? That is advocating of genocide. It's evil. It's ugly. Begin and Shamir were no different than Bibi. The Likud Party brings out a lot of ugliness in Israel. Begin getting the Peace Prize was a joke.

Shaked has made a lot of comments, and I don't know about the ones you're referring to. Begin and Shamir were members of a revolutionary organization, the Irgun, that ceased being active after 1948. The Likud Party is a mainstream right-wing party (of which Shaked is not a member, incidentally), whose leadership supports the two-state solution and creation of Palestine (though the party rank-and-file, and other politicians, are split) which is not really extremist in any meaningful way. Extremist politicians do exist in Israel, on the left and right, but you can't tar the entire country based on them.

I do agree with your point about Begin receiving the Peace Prize -- not because I think he was some evil man (quite the reverse), but because I don't think it should go to politicians, rather jailed dissidents and artists who deserve attention much more and receive it much less. But much worse figures than Begin have received it (Yasser Arafat and Le Duc Tho, for a start), so there's other places to begin complaining at.

I will not stand with Israel. We owe them absolutely nothing. It's not being anti-Semitic. It's not me being anti-Muslim. This is complete injustice on their end and our hands are tied. If only the politicians in this country all united and rebelled against AIPAC.

My allegiance is to America. Not Israel.

This is just meaningless platitudes that don't address actual issues at all. Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia do not exist in a vacuum, supporting certain political platforms strengthens them (just as the _trump campaign as a whole is racist, even if far from every individual _trump supporter is a racist). AIPAC's success and America's alliance with Israel have also not taken place in a vacuum.

Feel free to ignore me all you'd like. If there's really justice out there, and I believe there is, people will take a stand against Israel and they'll be punished.

If there were justice out there, buddy, Hamas wouldn't exist, never mind control their own dystopian city-state.

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Support for Israel is increasing? That's just delusional.

I don't know about "are increasing now", but they've definitely seen a very real increase over the past 10 years.

Also, I'm wondering how that bizarre claim is supposed to dovetail with the ever present Jewish claim that "anti-Semitism is on the rise!"

Worldwide, not in America. But, still, both of those things are capable of occurring simultaneously. Only a small percentage of anti-Semites are responsible for anti-Semitic incidents, and it's perfectly plausible for that small percentage to increase even as society as a whole becomes better educated and more tolerant.

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Unless young people (who overwhelmingly support the Democrats) radically change their political opinions, then I do think Israel has a lot to worry about.

and the uneducated people don't like Israel either.

So I don't like Israel. Therefore I'm not educated.

Nah; you've given more specific reasons for that (like your belief that the US isn't morally superior to Cuba, or your belief that Israel encouraged the US' war in Iraq, or your belief that individual politicians can characterize a nation).

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How likely is the creation of such an ASK party? Who would be the leader? If that was the election result, would they prefer to ally with Likud and the right-wing parties, or to form a smaller government with the left (ASK/Lapid/Avoda/Meretz is 56, so presumably they could convince Liberman or one of the Orthodox parties to back the government)?