Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

A figure support civil marriage crossing 70% really show evidence to the case that is a cross spectrum consensus from left to right and we are truly being ran by the religious minority.

The 55% support for gay marriage is a pleasant surprise...soon enough we'll have a gay mayor to Tel Aviv as well, I suspect the archaic discriminating marriage laws in Israel are done for and they will be abolished in the very near future 

[Hnv1]

Keep in mind that the minimum threshold is in the process of being raised from 2% to 4%, so small parties will have to merge to pass it, which means that the parties won't look the same in the next election (not that they ever do anyway...).

Most people and MKs I spoke with are fairly certain the bar won't be passed to 4% but to 2.5-3%

[Hnv1]

Knesset channel poll, first one after the rise of Herzog.

Likud - 35
Labour -19
Meretz - 13 (!! new record)
JH - 12
Lapid - 10
Shas - 10
UTJ - 6
Livni - 4
Hadash - 4
Islamic movement - 4
Balad - 3

[Hnv1]

This Knesset is just the perfect one to pass SSM

[Hnv1]

Man, the left in Israel is just really DOA, huh? It's been well over a decade since Labor was in power. Strange to see.

They have enough relevance to be in the current government.

None of the leaders of any of the parties in government would refer to themselves as left wing, and being in government doesn't necessarily mean you are relevant anyway. The lefts real power comes from the supreme court and the media.

What media exactly is controlled by the left? I'm hearing this myth over and over, Haaretz is a left-wing newspaper in a legitimate way (not hiding its opinions) and channel 10 are vaguely lefty. Bar for them (which are both smaller scale media outlets) the entire media is centre-right.
Yediot Ahronot-Channel 2 is a centrist media bloc supporting Yesh Atid and maybe the centre part of Labour nothing from the left there, Channel 1 is fringe right wing and recent years and Israel Hayom is the Likud herald (which is legitimate). Clearly this 'the Left control the media' is a myth.

Regarding the courts it's pretty much BS as well, the courts have some commitments to humans rights (as stated by Israeli law) but bottom line the courts are mainstream Zionist, and as a lawyer I can tell you the people with solid right wing\left wing opinions will most likely not be selected for judge positions. 95% of judges in Israel are in Likud-Labour spectrum. Anyone with legal knowledge and understand the left positions will tell you it's a fable that does not correspond with reality and the supreme courts actual verdicts.

Overall more BS from the right to nurture your myth of traitors from within.

[Hnv1]

Yesh Atid are not left. They are libertarians. They are horrible.

Yesh Atid might be described as Liberal or more accurately a party of non ideology sponsored by the rich and the old school establishment

[Hnv1]

Yesh Atid are not left. They are libertarians. They are horrible.

Yesh Atid might be described as Liberal or more accurately a party of non ideology sponsored by the rich and the old school establishment

Yesh Atid is essentially Yair Lapid's vehicle and nothing more.  It has no ideology. 

I think you overrate Yair Lapid's intelligence, he's ultimately the puppet not the puppeteer

[Hnv1]

What are the major differences between Yesh Atid and Hatnuah? Are they both supposed to be centrist parties with a strong touch of personalism?

Ideologically Hatnuah had a more Dovish lean with Livni-Mitzna-Peretz at the top and a somewhat left economically lean too whilst Yesh Atid were vague on everything.

Politically, Lapid is a rather dumb individual that a group of powerful people (like the owner of Israel biggest newspaper and a crook, Arnon Moses; or the owner of channel 2 plus a group of very wealthy businessmen), Lapid's emphasis from the start was to talk about the Israeli middle class (though most of his voters are upper middle class) and establish him self as distant from the left or right tags of Israeli politics, something akin to extreme centrism.
Livni will probably link up with Herzog next time around.

Honesty note: I regard Yesh Atid and its leader very poorly I cannot find even one good thing to say about either them or their conduct. 

[Hnv1]

Also, who would break away with Netanyahu?

I'm guessing Rubi Rivlin and Tzachi Hanegbi would be the only sure bets. Maybe Yisrael Katz? Livnat???

Rubi Rivlin?! I guess following Israeli politicas from afar is difficult. Rivlin loaths Netanyahu and is very very hawkish (though liberal sort of) no way will he break away from the Likud. If I have to wager who will break away I'll name: Hanegbi, Livnat, Steinitz, Gamliel, and Haim Katz. Arden\Shalom will break if the political gain will be very high.

[Hnv1]

What media exactly is controlled by the left? I'm hearing this myth over and over, Haaretz is a left-wing newspaper in a legitimate way (not hiding its opinions) and channel 10 are vaguely lefty. Bar for them (which are both smaller scale media outlets) the entire media is centre-right.
Yediot Ahronot-Channel 2 is a centrist media bloc supporting Yesh Atid and maybe the centre part of Labour nothing from the left there, Channel 1 is fringe right wing and recent years and Israel Hayom is the Likud herald (which is legitimate). Clearly this 'the Left control the media' is a myth.

Regarding the courts it's pretty much BS as well, the courts have some commitments to humans rights (as stated by Israeli law) but bottom line the courts are mainstream Zionist, and as a lawyer I can tell you the people with solid right wing\left wing opinions will most likely not be selected for judge positions. 95% of judges in Israel are in Likud-Labour spectrum. Anyone with legal knowledge and understand the left positions will tell you it's a fable that does not correspond with reality and the supreme courts actual verdicts.

Overall more BS from the right to nurture your myth of traitors from within.

I don't agree with a lot of what you wrote but don't really feel like getting in to all of it. Just to point out that what decides what is written has more to do with the individual journalists opinions and general media writing conventions than anything else. As it happens most journalists are on the left, so that is what you get. That is how you get people like Segal and Abramovich to both be on channel 2. their reporting looks very different, and their opinions whoever happens to own the news channel.

Firstly, I'm against calling every journalist pro two state solution a lefty, second of the editor has a lot of power that influences the individual writer (see what Sima Kadmon writes in Yediot compared to her honest beliefs) and due to the fact that bar Haaretz which properly states its opinions, in most pieces the headlines and the article itself are set according to the "spirit of the commander" ak the editor, hence the writer's opinion is pretty much insignificant.
Neither Yediot or Channel 2 could מםא be described lefty or left leaning even if you calculate the (exagharated) number of leftist reporters. pro 2 state is not enough to be labled left.It's a view shared by the centre and even parts of the right.

[Hnv1]

Knesset Channel poll from yesterday:
Likud Beitenu - 32
Labour 19
Yesh Atid - 13
JH - 13
Kachlon - 13
Meretz- 12
UTJ - 7
Shas -7
Hadash - 4

[Hnv1]

Not a poll but the extra-parliamentary Am Shalem (Whole Nation) party, which won 1.2% in the last election, merged with Likud. It previously looked like they were going to merge with The Jewish Home but their leader, former Shas MK Haim Amsalem, said The Jewish still took too hard a line on regulating conversions.

Considering half of his voters were secular or even lefties who believed his BS about a moderate orthodox (oxymoron?) I think this has little impact.

Yediot Ahronot poll
1. Liberman and Bibi split and this includes the returning Kachlon-
Likud - 22
Labour - 16
JH - 11
Yesh Atid - 10
Liberman - 10
Meretz -10
Kachlon - 10
Shas  - 8
United arabic list - 8
UTJ - 7
Livni - 4
Hadash - 4

2. Liberman and Bibi remain united-
LB - 29
Labour - 16
JH - 12
Kachlon - 11
Yesh Atid - 10
Meretz - 10
Shas - 9
United Arabic parties - 8
UTJ - 7
Livni - 4
Hadash - 4

But this is Yediot after all, I have a strong reason to question their method of polling and the political bias that goes before we are presented with the results.

[Hnv1]

Liberman declares a break from Likud. Knesset poll accordingly:

Likud - 21, Labour -19, JH - 18, Liberman - 11, Lapid - 11, Meretz - 11, UTJ - 7, Shas - 6, Livni - 5, Hadash -4, Balad -4, Ra'am -3.

Interesting though surely inaccurate, I think Liberman will fall harder then that on his own.

[Hnv1]

Interesting though surely inaccurate, I think Liberman will fall harder then that on his own.

Really? He won 15 seats on his own in 2009, and 11 as part of the alliance in 2013, and it's a longstanding rule in politics that adding two parties together you generally get less than you would had both run separately. What has Lieberman done since then that he can't expect such support?

I think that the 11 of LB were mostly on the back of Likud, he's done nothing the past few years and zigzag left and right. I think he will remain with a hardcore share of the Russian vote and a tad more secular right-wing nutters. Bennet's appeal is larger now especially with young voters and unhappy Likud members who will never vote for "that Russian"/

[Hnv1]

Likud now has 20 MKs and Yesh Atid has 19.

There is speculation that in his capacity as Foreign Minister, Lieberman will appoint Likud MK Carmel Shama-Hacohen (who actually only became an MK like a week ago, replacing Ruby Rivlin, who became President) as Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. He would then be replaced by the next person on the Likud Betenyu list, who is from Yisrael Betenyu. That would mean Likud and Yesh Atid would be tied for 19 seats each.

He's going to be an ambassador for OECD* It was reported that he was already in Paris checking for schools for his children.
Add to this interesting situation Herzog attempts to get Livni to join in with him and that will bring him to 21 seats...

[Hnv1]

new poll from Haaretz:

Likud: 25
Jewish Home: 16
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Yesh Atid: 13
Meretz: 10
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Livni: 4
"Arab parties": 9

There's the "Kahloun" wild card still to play, and I hear whispers Herzog is scheming some schemes for due date as well. so as always Israeli polls mean nothing.

[Hnv1]

The leftiest English newspaper would be Times of Israel, Haaretz.com
I would call the Post centrist with a soft right tendency.

Regarding Makur Rishon, the elite/hardcore of the JH reads that the mass of voters probably read anything from Israel Hayum/Maariv/YH. By the way in an interesting twist of events Sheldon Edelson bought Makur Rishon recently and last week changed the entire board and editors.

[Hnv1]

The leftiest English newspaper would be Times of Israel, Haaretz.com
I would call the Post centrist with a soft right tendency.

Regarding Makur Rishon, the elite/hardcore of the JH reads that the mass of voters probably read anything from Israel Hayum/Maariv/YH. By the way in an interesting twist of events Sheldon Edelson bought Makur Rishon recently and last week changed the entire board and editors.

Would it be far to say that people who were in the old NRP read Makur Rishon and most of the new supporters brought in by Bennett probably read Israel Hayum?

To some degree, Tkuma people also read MR and Bennet himself comes from the heart of the old NRP not from the settlers elite. You will also find a large chunk of secular YH/Maariv readers amongst Bennet voters.
And I will also add 'Israel Hayum reader' is a pretty broad term. It is distributed for free on the train, buses, town centres so it's hard to  to have a strict range of readers (I read it on the train when I commute and I also have an Haaretz subscription), from lower middle class voters who read it as a prime media source I would say it's mostly Likud and some JH.
Makor Rishon was also not founded to be a masses paper, the idea was to create a right wing Haaretz (on the model of the frankfurt allgemein zeitung) hence it is less reachable for the everyday Joe without good formal education.

[Hnv1]

New Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 30
Jewish Home: 18
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 10
Shas: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 7
Hatnua: 4
RAAM TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Hadash: 3

Do you think Hanin Zouabi's citizenship should be revoked?

Yes: 78% (it only lists the yes, I couldn't find how many said no/don't know).

War time polls are always right biased. I will wait for after the war we find out we lost 60+ troops for nothing, the blame game begins, and 2015 budget with the shock doctrine to pay for this war hits. I honestly think Bibi is done and dusted

[Hnv1]

New Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 30
Jewish Home: 18
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 10
Shas: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 7
Hatnua: 4
RAAM TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Hadash: 3

Do you think Hanin Zouabi's citizenship should be revoked?

Yes: 78% (it only lists the yes, I couldn't find how many said no/don't know).

War time polls are always right biased. I will wait for after the war we find out we lost 60+ troops for nothing, the blame game begins, and 2015 budget with the shock doctrine to pay for this war hits. I honestly think Bibi is done and dusted

If Bibi is done, who could possibly take over?

I think we will either see Herzog with a team of generals around him, or maybe someother new star (Diskin?) The right traditionally takes a term to regroup around a new leader

[Hnv1]

3% for Lapid is terrible for him. Does that mean basically all the people who support Yesh Atid in the party poll are Netanyahu supporters?

No. some trend Likud and some Meretz or even JH (meretz gains are of YT voters not Labour which is interesting). But I think most people who said they would still vote YT will admit Lapid will be an incompetent leader. Too many slip ups, looks too fresh and not very bright, self-righteous.
The amount of hate he gets from the left is truly amazing (and by my account deserved), I don't recall a centre leader so despised by the left. People would really rather see Bibi reign then him. In the right they view him as a buffoon. 

[Hnv1]

2 new polls:

Knesset Channel (without the new 3.25% bar):
Likud - 27
JH - 19
Labour -15
Lapid - 12
Liberman - 9
Meretz - 9
Shas - 8
UTJ - 7
Livni - 4
Hadash - 4
Balad - 3
Ra'am - 3
Kadima - 0

Haaretz poll:
Likud - 26
JH - 17
Labour -14
Lapid - 12
Liberman - 11
UTJ - 8
Meretz - 7
Shas - 7
Hadash - 6
Livni - 4
Balad - 4
Ra'am - 4
Kadima - 0

Satisfied with the conduct of:
Bibi - satisfied 50% dissatisfied 41%
Boogi (MoD) - satisfied 55% dissatisfied 35%
Liberman - satisfied 29% dissatisfied 59%

Views on the outcome of the operatiom:
54% neither of the sides won
26% Israel won
16% Hamas won
4% don't know

[Hnv1]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

[Hnv1]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Why did they choose such an odd number as 3,25%?

Livni wanted 2.5 or 3% libermaan wanted 4% or to abolish democracy, and like a truly great Israeli legislation it ended with a bad compromise

[Hnv1]

Minister of Internal Affairs and Likud number 2 Gideon Sa'ar has resigned the Knesset.

Rumor is, he is going to link up with former Likud MK Moshe Kahlon. Kahlor has been planning to set up his own party. The thing is though, Kahlon's gimmick is that he's economically "left-wing" and Sa'ar is a pretty generic conservative. Having him in the new party would take away its raison d'etre and pretty much make it just "Likud 2"

So that fact led to a new rumor, that Sa'ar and Kahlon are going to work together to topple Netanyahu as Likud leader.

Also worth noting, Netanyahu is planning to appoint Likud number 3 Gilad Erdan as ambassador to the UN.

If Sa'ar and Kahlon do end up forming their own party, it means Netanyahu will have basically gotten rid of anyone who could challenge him for leadership.

Can't see Sa'ar going to be a number 2 for Kahlon (Who I can't see how anyone would describe as left wing on economics). If anything there is a rumour Haaretz have some investigating report in the making on Sa'ar indecent conduct in a Tel Aviv bar (which makes sense as the rumours in the political swamp had ran on that for years).
Also I would add that Kadima was a Likud 2, and to a degree Yesh Atid is likud 2 in a way as well (more similarties with moderate likud than Labour as I see it).

regarding the seat count as I understood it Bibi will demand one of Liberman's minister resign from the knesset as well