German population to shrink by a fifth by 2060

[greenforest32]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Read more at http://www.thelocal.de/society/20111028-38517.html

[redcommander]

Is there a reason why Germans aren't having children? Their birth rate is approaching Japanese levels. Maybe Merkel should think about implementing family planning practices similar to France's?

[Tender Branson]

Is there a reason why Germans aren't having children? Their birth rate is approaching Japanese levels. Maybe Merkel should think about implementing family planning practices similar to France's?

One of the reasons is discussed here:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Another reason could be/most likely is the so called "urn model" of Germany's current population pyramid:



The number of German women in child-bearing age NOW is significantly lower than those who were born between 1960-1970, therefore the number of children today is declining.

Another factor is that more and more women don't want children, because they are now very independent and they see them as an obstacle to their careers.

[lowtech redneck]

One of the reasons is discussed here:

Under that logic, shouldn't the United States and Ireland have lower fertility levels than Germany?  I suspect the same policies would have significantly varied results across different countries and cultures.

The entire First World needs to figure this out, though...and fast.

[Joe Republic]

I suppose this isn't quite as awful as the last time Germany shed a large chunk of its population.



Too soon?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I suppose this isn't quite as awful as the last time Germany shed a large chunk of its population.



Too soon?

Awwwwwwwwwwwwwww...

But seriously this post is legendary.

[Tender Branson]

I suppose this isn't quite as awful as the last time Germany shed a large chunk of its population.



Too soon?

What do you mean ?

The WW or East Germany ?

[phk]

Long-term population projections = bunk

[lowtech redneck]

Long-term population projections = bunk

True, but things are not looking good for the short-to-medium term, either.

Here's an interesting site on demography that researches the consequences of low fertility and theoretical prospects for recovery: http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/

[minionofmidas]

There is something of a tradition, in Germany, of not welcoming but instead being wary of lower-class people procreating. Hence misdirected and thus ineffective subsidies.

[Leftbehind]

^We have that same sh**t here.

[CultureKing]

Shouldn't we be applauding Germany? Remember that we just passed the 7 billion mark, we have plenty of people, I don't think we should be worrying about countries with decreasing populations until we get a handle on the Ugandas and Yemens of the world first.

[Sbane]

Shouldn't we be applauding Germany? Remember that we just passed the 7 billion mark, we have plenty of people, I don't think we should be worrying about countries with decreasing populations until we get a handle on the Ugandas and Yemens of the world first.

A stable demographic structure is more important than reducing population. If Germany doesn't have enough young people, how will it take care of it's old? A fertility rate of about 1.9-2.1 is desirable.

[Franzl]

Shouldn't we be applauding Germany? Remember that we just passed the 7 billion mark, we have plenty of people, I don't think we should be worrying about countries with decreasing populations until we get a handle on the Ugandas and Yemens of the world first.

Pretty much the entire social system would collapse with a population reduction of that size....but no problem, I guess?

[Tender Branson]

Shouldn't we be applauding Germany? Remember that we just passed the 7 billion mark, we have plenty of people, I don't think we should be worrying about countries with decreasing populations until we get a handle on the Ugandas and Yemens of the world first.

Pretty much the entire social system would collapse with a population reduction of that size....but no problem, I guess?

Well, there's still immigration. It currently makes up for almost all the natural population loss.

The 2011 figures so far (until May):

Births: 246.422
Deaths: 355.237
Natural Population Decrease: -108.815

Immigrants: 349.631
Emigrants: 248.309
Immigration Saldo: +101.322

Total population loss: -7.493

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Content/Publikationen/Querschnittsveroeffentlichungen/StatistischeWochenBerichte/WochenBerichte__Bevoelkerung,property=file.pdf

...

The comparable figures from Jan. to May 2010 were:

Births: 250.265
Deaths: 353.440
Natural Population Decrease: -103.175

Immigrants: 291.492
Emigrants: 248.557
Immigration Saldo: +42.935

Total population loss: -60.240

http://www.statistikportal.de/Statistik-Portal/de_zs01_bund.asp

[Tender Branson]

Here's a nice link where you can look up the density and change in each German Kreis, using a Google map:

http://www.citypopulation.de/php/germany-admin.php

You just have to click on "Level 2" on top of the map.

And then compare it with the latest map of unemployment rates:

http://www.pub.arbeitsagentur.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/karten/aloq_kreis.html

Or Hartz-4 receivers:

http://www.pub.arbeitsagentur.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/karten/ehbq_kreis.html

[Sbane]

Shouldn't we be applauding Germany? Remember that we just passed the 7 billion mark, we have plenty of people, I don't think we should be worrying about countries with decreasing populations until we get a handle on the Ugandas and Yemens of the world first.

Pretty much the entire social system would collapse with a population reduction of that size....but no problem, I guess?

Well, there's still immigration. It currently makes up for almost all the natural population loss.

The 2011 figures so far (until May):

Births: 246.422
Deaths: 355.237
Natural Population Decrease: -108.815

Immigrants: 349.631
Emigrants: 248.309
Immigration Saldo: +101.322

Total population loss: -7.493

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Content/Publikationen/Querschnittsveroeffentlichungen/StatistischeWochenBerichte/WochenBerichte__Bevoelkerung,property=file.pdf

...

The comparable figures from Jan. to May 2010 were:

Births: 250.265
Deaths: 353.440
Natural Population Decrease: -103.175

Immigrants: 291.492
Emigrants: 248.557
Immigration Saldo: +42.935

Total population loss: -60.240

http://www.statistikportal.de/Statistik-Portal/de_zs01_bund.asp

Yes, but immigration, especially poors, can lead to destability. Especially in a place like Europe that just isn't used to it and doesn't seem capable of coping with it that well. Isn't there already a lot of tension between Germans and Turks?

[redcommander]

Turkish immigrants aren't going to save Germany from population decline. Turkey's birth rate is also now below replacement levels. The government needs to promote better family and childbearing policies to get population growth again.

[Tender Branson]

Turkish immigrants aren't going to save Germany from population decline. Turkey's birth rate is also now below replacement levels. The government needs to promote better family and childbearing policies to get population growth again.

Turkish immigrants are a thing of the past. They now have a negative migration balance.

In the year 2010, only 30.200 people moved from Turkey to Germany - but 36.000 people moved from Germany to Turkey, for a net loss of 5.800 Turkish people.

The biggest immigration balances last year came from:

* Romania (+26.000)
* Poland (+23.000)
* Bulgaria (+16.000)
* Hungaria (+9.000)
* Afghanistan (+6.000)
* Spain (+6.000)
* Iraq (+5.000)
* Russia (+5.000)
* Macedonia (+4.000)
* Kosovo (+4.000)

The biggest losses (immigrants minus emigrants):

* Switzerland (-13.000)
* Turkey (-6.000)
* USA (-3.000)
* Austria (-2.000)
* Canada (-1.000)
* Croatia (-1.000)
* Australia (-1.000)
* Norway (-1.000)
* UK (-700)
* Sweden (-500)

[The Ex-Factor]

If any government has successfully figured out good family and childbearing policies I'd like to know it. From all the statistics I've seen educated women in pretty much all first world countries are simply having less and less children way below replacement level. How much do such policies truly help at the margins?

[redcommander]

If any government has successfully figured out good family and childbearing policies I'd like to know it. From all the statistics I've seen educated women in pretty much all first world countries are simply having less and less children way below replacement level. How much do such policies truly help at the margins?

France, Ireland, and Iceland have effectively grown their birth rates.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If any government has successfully figured out good family and childbearing policies I'd like to know it. From all the statistics I've seen educated women in pretty much all first world countries are simply having less and less children way below replacement level. How much do such policies truly help at the margins?

France, Ireland, and Iceland have effectively grown their birth rates.

As have Norway and Sweden...

Germany has had low fertility for a century now.  The number of births in Germany peaked in 1909 and then fell until the late 1930s when there was a brief rise due to Hitler's policies.  Then they fell again until about 1950 when they began to rise.  The fertility rate for women peaked in 1964 at 2.6 children per woman, far below the 3.9 children per woman at the height of the American baby boom in 1957.  Then the bottom fell out... by the mid 1970s, births had fallen to levels not seen since the mid-late 19th century.  This occurred just as the pre-WWI generation was dying out, resulting in population loss for Germany in the late 70s/early 80s.

East Germany had relatively higher, more stable birth rates prior to the late 1980s... but rates there plummeted to below 1 child per woman in some cases.... though they are now rising again, slowly.

Germany is going to have a hell of a time.  There is simply no way their economy will continue to grow with a rapidly shrinking population.  But then, they're export based... so that might save them.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If any government has successfully figured out good family and childbearing policies I'd like to know it. From all the statistics I've seen educated women in pretty much all first world countries are simply having less and less children way below replacement level. How much do such policies truly help at the margins?

France, Ireland, and Iceland have effectively grown their birth rates.

and how are their policies any different from those that haven't?