If Obama won or lost by the margins of past incumbent Presidents... (six maps)

[Nichlemn]

Here are some maps in which Obama replicates the margin of six 20th century Presidents running for re-election, three of whom won and three of whom lost. All assume a uniform swing. I don't believe these scenarios are any more likely than any others, it's just a fun exercise.


Obama Wins

If Obama wins by the same margin as...

Bush 2004 (2.46%)

EV 285-253


Eisenhower 1956 (15.45%)

EV 394-144

Roosevelt 1936 = 24.26%

EV 491-47


Obama Loses

If Obama loses by the same margin as...

Ford 1976 (-2.06%)

EV 263-275


Carter 1980 (-9.74%)

EV 152-386

Hoover 1932 (-17.76%)

EV 84-454


Some notes:

- The losing candidate wins more EVs in every one of these scenarios as the losing candidate won in the election it was based on. This suggests polarisation and/or a flaw in universal swing.
- Despite more than doubling his victory margin in the Eisenhower scenario, Obama wins just three more states with 29 EVs between them.
- AR and LA remain Republican even in the Roosevelt-style landslide. I doubt that would actually happen, still, it magnifies just how Republican those states were in 2008.
- Despite losing by 2 points in the Ford scenario, Obama comes very close to winning CO and the election.
- In the Hoover scenario, Obama only wins over 50.5% of the vote in VT, HA and DC. There's only a couple of points between him winning 10 EVs and 149 EVs.

[NVGonzalez]

No Truman 48 or Reagan 84?

[Nichlemn]

Truman 1948 (4.48%)

332-206

Pretty boring (hence why I didn't do it the first time, since it's so close to Obama's 08 margin) - NC, IN and NE-02 all flip.


Reagan 1984 (18.21%)

EV: 415-123

Eisenhower + Dakotas + SC + NE-01. 123 EVs is almost 10x Mondale's EVs.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Once you get to big landslides like that, uniform swings are pretty much impossible; Obama would hit a ceiling in the blue states, and most of the rest of the improved margin would be in the red states (especially traditionally D states where he actually did worse than Kerry in 2008-Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, etc)

[Nichlemn]

Once you get to big landslides like that, uniform swings are pretty much impossible; Obama would hit a ceiling in the blue states, and most of the rest of the improved margin would be in the red states (especially traditionally D states where he actually did worse than Kerry in 2008-Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, etc)

Yeah, I agree. I can't see Obama winning by over 20 points and losing Arkansas. I also don't see him holding Illinois if he loses by 17 (he only barely does in that map).

I'd be intrigued if anyone's done any study of how swings actually occur even when "uniform" (i.e. there are no regional divergences, just how "ceiling effects" work).

[Mechaman]

Once you get to big landslides like that, uniform swings are pretty much impossible; Obama would hit a ceiling in the blue states, and most of the rest of the improved margin would be in the red states (especially traditionally D states where he actually did worse than Kerry in 2008-Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, etc)

Yeah pretty much.

A pretty good example of this in my view would be the Election of 1920.  In the North you see the GOP pretty much maxing out in the upper midwest (getting over 70% of the vote in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin) and taking Tennessee (which hadn't vote Republican since 1868), almost winning Kentucky, and driving down Democratic voting percentages even in the Deep South.  In fact, Warren Harding won over 30% of the popular vote in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and Virginia (hell, I believe he might've done better than Dewey did in a few of those states in 1948).

And the Harding/Coolidge ticket was pro-civil rights.

[Politico]

If he loses by 17 points, picture 57-40-3 or something like that, the only EVs he would carry would be DC and Hawaii (even the latter is not guaranteed).

[NVGonzalez]

Truman 1948 (4.48%)

332-206

Pretty boring (hence why I didn't do it the first time, since it's so close to Obama's 08 margin) - NC, IN and NE-02 all flip.


Reagan 1984 (18.21%)

EV: 415-123

Eisenhower + Dakotas + SC + NE-01. 123 EVs is almost 10x Mondale's EVs.

Oh gotcha. Funny enough the Truman 48 range is exactly how my prediction map looks like. I would give Texas to Obama in the Reagan 84 map though. The demographics there are changing fast and by the time the successor of Obama if both are reelected is term limited the state will probably end up with a light D. A very strong D can probably take Texas right now if his PV range flirts with 20%