Dems: Did you really think Kerry would win?

[Gustaf]

No. If you had changed the question to have COULD in it instead of WOULD, then yes. I was actually impressed by how well Kerry did. I suspected that the polls, which were giving Bush a 2% lead or so, were underestimating GOP support due to changes in the voter registration balance, overestimation of turnout and stronger GOP GOTV efforts. I had Bush sweeping most of the swing states. The only prediction I can be somewhat proud of is calling MN as lean Kerry when most people thought it was a tossup.

[Gustaf]

Naso, you thought Bush would win 40+ states, something you were always bringing up as a possibility. DOn't try and sound like you were a good predictor.

I figured Bush was gonna win, I actually over-estimated his win by quite a margin. On election night though, I got my hopes up, seeing the high turn-out. But it died quickly.

[Gustaf]

To get 10 states Kerry would need MA, RI, VT, NY, MD, IL, CT, CA, HI, ME. Then Delaware to reach 11. In a country this polarized, that's a ridiculous idea. You seriously think Bush would have reached 60% of the popular vote (the required swing), performing the best result since LBJ, beating Reagan? You think Bush is more popular than Reagan was?