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Author Topic: Prediction On Upcoming Polling Event--Newt  (Read 959 times)
Wonkish1
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« on: November 11, 2011, 04:37:22 am »
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I didn't want to just post this in a random thread because it would easily be forgotten(and I'd be lying if I didn't want some credit when this happens), but I am seeing a very major polling event that is going to occur in the near future.

In an upcoming poll Newt will out poll Romney in the Obama vs. category. Up until this point no "flavor of the month" has out polled Romney in competitiveness against Obama that is about to change.

It is my contention that Romney and Newt's polling in the Obama vs. category will converge and be quite similar in the not so distant future. And when they do converge together there will be more than 1 poll that has Newt as the one that is a better potential competitor against Obama than Romney is.


Those polls will have a big impact on the primaries because all of the people that were looking at Romney purely because he was the most "electable" are going to actually have to think about it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2011, 07:06:47 am »
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Maybe after Gingrich wins Iowa.

Before that, I just don't think it's possible for Gingrich to get better polling results than Romney.

Gingrich is much more hated among Independents than Romney is. A win in Iowa could change that.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2011, 07:07:21 am »
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I didn't want to just post this in a random thread because it would easily be forgotten(and I'd be lying if I didn't want some credit when this happens), but I am seeing a very major polling event that is going to occur in the near future.

In an upcoming poll Newt will out poll Romney in the Obama vs. category. Up until this point no "flavor of the month" has out polled Romney in competitiveness against Obama that is about to change.

It is my contention that Romney and Newt's polling in the Obama vs. category will converge and be quite similar in the not so distant future. And when they do converge together there will be more than 1 poll that has Newt as the one that is a better potential competitor against Obama than Romney is.


Those polls will have a big impact on the primaries because all of the people that were looking at Romney purely because he was the most "electable" are going to actually have to think about it.

You have made a number of astute observations.

I would suggest that among other things, you examine the 'sample size' of the polls, as we the internals.

Romney generally performs better than other potential Republican nominees is surveys with small samples and unusually small Republican voters compositions.

Romney needs a clear gap between him and other potential Republican nominees to have any chance of selling the 'electability' argument to get the nomination.

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Wonkish1
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2011, 07:29:02 am »
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Maybe after Gingrich wins Iowa.

Before that, I just don't think it's possible for Gingrich to get better polling results than Romney.

Gingrich is much more hated among Independents than Romney is. A win in Iowa could change that.

The notion that Gingrich is currently "hated" by independents I think is way, way overblown.

If you look at Gingrich's insane favorability moves in the last several months(moves I have never seen among any candidate for president ever and not even close) to expect that will just go from full on growth to immediate flat plateau is I think a little naive.

The other thing is that Gingrich possesses a lot of intangibles that are capable of causing some independents that Romney can't even get yet to go for Newt.


I don't expect this call to be believed by many people right now, but I do also believe in making some reasonably bold calls on occasion(especially since I've had a decent amount of them come true up to today). And I'm quite confident in making this one.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2011, 07:43:49 am »
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Newt has a lot of issues Cain didn't. On one hand, he's probably the only person on the debate stages who can seriously attack Romney without looking like a moron and could actually damage him (The other being Paul, but he seems to have a problem with attacks so he never takes advantage of it). On the other, when he does so he exposes himself since his record has at times been just as bad as Romney's (Not to mention the business with his wives). His polling was bad earlier when that stuff was front and centre, but now he's changed his image. It would be very easy to bring him back down, though. (

Also, this shows that Romney is detested by a large portion of the electorate. He'd better hope the non-Romney voters don't go around a single candidate or he's doomed.
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2011, 06:53:27 pm »
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Gingrich is now between Romney match ups and Cain match ups, and he was at Cain levels. He won't converge to Romney levels until after he wins Iowa, wins South Carolina, becomes the clear competitor to Mitt Romney, the entire republican party starts saying hey, there's a very good chance he'll be the nominee. Independents will look at him. Dems will. That's when he'll move up into the polls. Until Jan, the people who aren't going to look up the candidates, won't, and that's a huge majority of Americans unfortunately.
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2011, 11:29:45 pm »
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Mitt Romney still has nightmares about John McCain coming back from the dead and beating him in New Hampshire, which is why his campaign has put the boot on Perry for the past couple of weeks.  I think they're now taking Gingrich very seriously and debating about how to take him on.  Expect to hear a lot about "moral values".  And he'll probably trot out Ann Romney a lot, who is much prettier and more authentic than Gingrich's trophy wife.  I wonder how she's doing health-wise - haven't seen too much of her lately.
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2011, 01:35:21 am »
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I do not see this happening outside of maybe some Rasmussen polls and a few other assorted outliers.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2011, 03:00:14 am by Eraserhead »Logged

Wonkish1
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2011, 06:21:54 pm »
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Take a look at the general favorables of Newt right now! Newt had a general population unfavorability of 51% just a month ago. Now its 39%. He has a net negative of 3% vs. Romney's net positive of 4%. A 7% net difference is pretty small when you are moving this fast through the polls(I have never seen anything like this before). I mean 3.5% switch from unfavorable to favorable and he's tied with Romney.

^^That is general population movement. Among GOP voters Newt has moved an absolutely impressive and I think forever record breaking 58 net favorability pts since June according to PPP. Hillary Clinton took twice the time to cover a third of that in 2007-08 and now she is the most popular politician in the country.


Links:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/11/14/rel18b.pdf

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_1114925.pdf


Net favorability among the general population with Newt was my biggest reason why I didn't think Newt would make it many months ago. But this kind of movement is absolutely unheard of before. And there no signs of this freight train slowing down!

And if this ^^^ prediction comes true I have to admit I deserve a little bit of gloating rights because A-Bob has been a Newt supporter since the beginning and even he thinks I'm reaching here.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2011, 06:39:28 pm »
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PPP: "National general election numbers out tomorrow- Newt gaining on Obama too, suggesting increased appeal not just to GOP"

I don't think PPP will produce the crossover on Romney, that this thread is talking, about in its release tomorrow. But its coming!


But I'm getting ready to do a dance and gloat a little in the not so distant future.
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« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2011, 03:10:40 pm »
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PPP: "National general election numbers out tomorrow- Newt gaining on Obama too, suggesting increased appeal not just to GOP"

I don't think PPP will produce the crossover on Romney, that this thread is talking, about in its release tomorrow. But its coming!


But I'm getting ready to do a dance and gloat a little in the not so distant future.

Quote
Most notable is that he leads Mitt Romney 46-43.  This only the second time in the last 5 months that PPP has found Obama ahead of his top rival. Romney's net favorability has dropped 8 points in the last month from -6 (37/43) to -14 (36/50). Romney is pretty steady with Republicans, but his numbers have gone down with both independents (from 48/34 to 41/40) and with Democrats (from 19/59 to 18/68).
 
The electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican field is becoming a little bit narrower. Newt Gingrich is surging for the general election as well as the primary and has turned what was an 11 point deficit against Obama last month into only a 6 point one now at 49-43.  Gingrich's improvement has come across the board- he's doing 7 points better with independents, 4 points better with Democrats, and 4 points better with Republicans.
 
You may accept your accolades. 
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2011, 03:25:01 pm »
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PPP: "National general election numbers out tomorrow- Newt gaining on Obama too, suggesting increased appeal not just to GOP"

I don't think PPP will produce the crossover on Romney, that this thread is talking, about in its release tomorrow. But its coming!


But I'm getting ready to do a dance and gloat a little in the not so distant future.

Quote
Most notable is that he leads Mitt Romney 46-43.  This only the second time in the last 5 months that PPP has found Obama ahead of his top rival. Romney's net favorability has dropped 8 points in the last month from -6 (37/43) to -14 (36/50). Romney is pretty steady with Republicans, but his numbers have gone down with both independents (from 48/34 to 41/40) and with Democrats (from 19/59 to 18/68).
 
The electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican field is becoming a little bit narrower. Newt Gingrich is surging for the general election as well as the primary and has turned what was an 11 point deficit against Obama last month into only a 6 point one now at 49-43.  Gingrich's improvement has come across the board- he's doing 7 points better with independents, 4 points better with Democrats, and 4 points better with Republicans.
 
You may accept your accolades. 

Thank you, but to be fair I haven't quite officially earned them yet. Newt still has to produce at least one poll where he beats Romney in the Obama vs. category. In this poll he's only 3 points behind.

But this is increasingly looking like a very good call on my part when most were thinking that there was no way Newt could possibly bridge the electability gap between him and Romney.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2011, 03:30:24 pm »
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But Wonkish, does Gingrich have the discipline to remain competitive? While his personal failings are well known, the man also has the tendency to say things that anger a lot of people. Gingrich's favorable and competitiveness numbrs may be looking hot right now, but he's one more "right wing social engineering" away from seeing those numbers completely reverse.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2011, 03:53:22 pm »
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But Wonkish, does Gingrich have the discipline to remain competitive? While his personal failings are well known, the man also has the tendency to say things that anger a lot of people. Gingrich's favorable and competitiveness numbrs may be looking hot right now, but he's one more "right wing social engineering" away from seeing those numbers completely reverse.

I think you nailed Gingrich's biggest problem and the one I've just heaped criticism on him for over the years. Since he isn't scripted he tends to make decent sized mistakes every once in a great while.

So ultimately while I'm a Newt fan the only way I'm going to vote for him come primary time is if between now and then he doesn't make a single big mistake and I conclude he's improved considerably on that front.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2011, 10:52:54 pm »
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Newt's big head is home to so many funny thoughts.

Surely some will slime out and ruin him.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2011, 12:19:10 am »
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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/11/15/130402/poll-gingrich-scores-best-vs-obama.html

Booyeah! Damn that was faster that I thought!!!! I'll take my victory lap and collect my accolades.


Granted it's McClatchy-Marist which isn't the strongest polling outfit on the RCP list.
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2011, 03:31:30 am »
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I do not see this happening outside of maybe some Rasmussen polls and a few other assorted outliers.

I still stand by this for now. Marist is an awful uni pollster but enjoy the fun while it lasts!
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2011, 03:48:21 am »
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I do not see this happening outside of maybe some Rasmussen polls and a few other assorted outliers.

I still stand by this for now. Marist is an awful uni pollster but enjoy the fun while it lasts!

By the way in polling, Rasmussen is one of the more accurate ones when you figure in Marist, Quinni, Ipsos, and most of the really crappy newspaper and network polls.

My approximate order goes something like
1. Mason Dixon**
2. Battleground
3. Gallup
4. PPP
5. Rasmussen
6. Opinion Research

Then all of the remaining news outfits, SUSA, Ipsos, etc.

3rd worst of RCP: Quinni
2nd worst of RCP: Marist(hence why I wrote the subtext)
worst of RCP: Democracy Corps

Then the crap that doesn't make the list like:
Insider Advantage
Small town newspapers and uni's
Go next in the crap list

Then lastly you have the online interactives like Zogby I are the absolute worst.

So I would much rather had Rasmussen over Marist I'll definitely grant you that. But this wont be the only one.
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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2011, 03:57:57 am »
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Rasmussen is a decent pollster but he has an agenda. I am more trusting of him in the closing days of an election cycle when he has to be right.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2011, 04:05:51 am »
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Rasmussen is a decent pollster but he has an agenda. I am more trusting of him in the closing days of an election cycle when he has to be right.

I don't think that is actually shown in reality though. If you look at his polls they are always a lot closer to the RCP average of similar dated polls than most of the polls that make it on the RCP list.

Many republicans could accuse PPP of having an agenda, but realistically speaking they are always pretty close to the RCP average as well(although I do think if they had a weakness it would be primaries, they are much stronger in the general than in primary elections).

Take a look at the current polls on RCP you'll see the ones that I listed in my top 6 as being much less volatile against the RCP average than the rest of the RCP list and that isn't a coincidence either that is practically always the case.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2011, 04:09:07 am by Wonkish1 »Logged
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