The Spirit of Massachusetts

[NHI]

49.69% - 49.46%

In a close race Elizabeth Warren managed to narrowly defeat Scott Brown for Ted Kennedy's old Senate Seat. The Defeat for Brown was a hard one to swallow, but it's impact was less significant given the election results in the Presidential race.

Despite uncertainty throughout much of the night Mitt Romney went onto defeat Pres. Obama.

Romney/Jindal: EV. 285 PV. 50.0%

Obama/Biden: EV. 253 PV. 48.6%

Mitt Romney: 45th President of The United States

2016: The Spirit of Massachusetts: Romney v. Warren

Side note: I'm putting off my previous timelines for the time being to write this one. I've run into a rut and am not sure where to go with them, so I'm taking a break to do this one for now.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I wonder how the Romney Presidency will go and what will happen wit my man Scott Brown. Maybe Kerry will opt to retire with the thought of Brown, a guy who ITTL barely went down, facing him?

[NHI]

The Romney Administration

Republicans retained control of the House and made in roads in the Senate, but not enough to take the majority. This put a roadblock for the repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, however Romney by Executive Order was able to work with the Secretary of Health and Human Services to grant a waiver from all fifty states from the act.

The Mandate portion was struck down by the Supreme Court in late 2012, which helped pave the way for many in the Senate to help see the light, as Romney described.

In terms of relations with China, Romney held true to his word and labeled them a currency manipulator, and well as using very strong language which caused controversy with some.

This century must belong to America. A nation predestined for greatness since her founding, by restoring our economy and military we shall we reaffirm this as the world's leader.....In terms of China, we welcome your trade and we welcome your friendship, but we do not and never will welcome your competition. For we seek an economic cold war, but if circumstances should arises they will find themselves as footnote in world history, just like all other competitors who dared to challenge this last and greatest beacon of freedom.

With reductions in some spending, lower taxes and a vast military buildup The Romney Administration touted it's progress for the nation. By the end of Romney's first year in office the unemployment had dropped. On election day unemployment stood at 8.5%, and by December 2013 the unemployment stood at 7.9%.

2014:

In 2014 The GOP was able to finally recapture the Senate, and in part due to the help of Scott Brown who replaced John Kerry's old senate seat. When speculation began to circulate that Brown might run Kerry who cited his age announced his intention to not run for reelection. Brown did announce his campaign and went onto face Lt. Governor Tim Murray.

In the election Brown defeated Murray and returned to the senate.

50.0% - 48.8%

Following the election speculation began with the Democratic Nomination in 2016. All eyes were on Hillary Clinton who had originally announced she would not run, but as 2015 approached she coyly began dropping hints that she would run.

Democratic Nomination:
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Andrew Cuomo: 17%
Joe Biden: 10%
Brian Schweitzer: 5%
Other: 19%

In February of 2015 Clinton announced to the dismay of many that she would not run for president. This opened the field wide up and many saw the top tier choices as: Andrew Cuomo, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren. Warren announced immediately following Clinton's announcement.

...We need a champion for the middle class in the White House. Now this is not rhetoric, this is the truth. President Romney's white house is the bunker for the rich and the well to do. I'm find it laughable that this president believes he can fix our problems by spending less and cutting taxes. I mean hello? This is America, not the corporate board room. The President has got to go, so we can have a restoration of social opportunity in America.

Democratic Nomination:
Warren: 26%
Cuomo: 21%
Schweitzer: 20%
Gillibrand: 11%
Shaheen: 8%
Kaine: 4%
Undecided: 10%

Iowa Polling:
Schweitzer: 39%
Kaine: 19%
Warren: 12%

New Hampshire Polling:
Shaheen: 20%
Warren: 20%
Cuomo: 15%
Schweitzer: 15%

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination? (Warren, Cuomo, Schweitzer

Warren: 30%
Cuomo: 29%
Schweitzer: 29%
Other: 13%

Romney Approval Rating:

Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 38%
No Opinion: 8%

Matchup:

Romney v. Warren:

51% - 37%

Romney v. Cuomo:

54% - 34%

Romney v. Schweitzer:

59% - 35%

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This should be an interesting election. Can't see Warren polling that much better in the general election than Cuomo, just because he's much more of a centrist. That's only a minor quibble, though.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm tired of Romney TLs.

[NHI]

Iowa:

Brain Schweitzer as expected won the Iowa Caucuses, but by a much larger victory than anticipated. Kaine came in second, followed Andrew Cuomo and then Kaine in third. Warren came in a distant sixth, which surprised many pundits. Her concentration was on New Hampshire, but unlike past years many candidates downplayed New Hampshire given it Shaheen. Nevertheless Warren pressed on.


40%


20%


16%


8%


7%


6%

New Hampshire

The candidates headed into the Granite States. Schweitzer hoped to pull an upset and win the state, while Warren was hoping for a comeback. Following Iowa Kirsten Gillibrand ended her campaign, but did not endorse any candidate, citing, "I will wait until after New Hampshire votes."

With his big win in Iowa must polls showed Schweitzer either in second or first, which caused great concern to the Shaheen campaign given the organization that was put into the state. Cuomo downplayed  New Hampshire and began shifting his focus to Florida, South Carolina and Michigan. Tim Kaine who had come in second in Iowa was unsure where to go with his results. He focused on New Hampshire, but poor funding derailed his efforts.

On primary night Jeanne Shaheen the former three term governor and  senator from 2009 to 2015 was soundly defeated in New Hampshire; her home state. Brian Schweitzer trumped Shaheen who placed third overall. In second was Elizabeth Warren who proclaimed at the end of the night, "We've got our momentum back."


36%


30%


15%


10%


7%

Following New Hampshire Warren, and Schweitzer seemed to be the new frontrunners for the nomination, whereas Andrew Cuomo now seemed like a distant memory. The campaign began damage control, but many saw it as too little too late. Schweitzer led in South Carolina and Nevada, whereas Warren led in Michigan and tied Schweitzer in Florida.

Cuomo tries to salvage his campaign.

The Romney campaign who anticipated Cuomo to be their opponent began shifting their focus to Schweitzer and Warren, the only two credible candidates left. With Shaheen out, as well as Kaine, the nomination fight belonged to Schweitzer and Warren, with Cuomo trying to regain his place as a viable candidate.

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination?

Schweitzer: 37%
Warren: 29%
Cuomo: 18%
Undecided: 16%

Matchup:

Romney v Warren

52% - 39%

Romney v Schweitzer

55% 41%

Romney v Cuomo

52% 42%

South Carolina:

Following his win in Nevada, Brian Schweitzer headed into South Carolina with the hopes of sending a knockout punch to his opponents. Cuomo ended his efforts to win the state and concentrated on Florida and Michigan, both crucial states. As expected Brian Schweitzer delivered win in South Carolina, though by a closer margin than expected.


39%


37%


20%

Despite a close win South Carolina marked Schweitzer's fourth win and many in the party began to gravitate towards his candidacy. Kirsten Gillibrand announced her support of Schweitzer as did Kaine and Shaheen. However Warren and Cuomo stayed in the race. With enough funds to get them through the remaining two contests before Super Tuesdays they hoped to deliver a win and take the wind out of Schweitzer's sail.

Michigan:

Elizabeth Warren finally made her real comeback by winning the state of Michigan with almost fifty percent of the vote compared to Schweitzer's twenty-seven percent.


47%


27%


22%

Her victory help cement a comeback which propelled her to win the state of Florida a few weeks later. With Cuomo effectively finished the race remained a fight between Warren and Schweitzer, both who represented to different visions for the Democratic Party.

Florida:
Warren: 40%
Schweitzer: 38%
Cuomo: 18%

Schweitzer
Warren

[tmthforu94]

Personally, I think wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would seal it for Schweiter, esp. If you include Nevada and SC. Good Job!

[NHI]

Super Tuesday

Schweitzer headed into Super Tuesday with a significant lead over Warren who hoped to build off her wins in Michigan and Florida. However many in the party establishment began cumulating around Brian Schweitzer as the nominee and Mitt Romney began shifting his focus towards the Gold and Silver State Governor.

Schweitzer v. Warren

49%  -  40%

Super Tuesday States:

California:
Schweitzer: 51%
Warren: 46%

New York:
Schweitzer: 55%
Warren: 43%

Massachusetts:
Warren: 60%
Schweitzer: 37%

Vermont:
Warren: 51%
Schweitzer: 48%

Connecticut:
Warren: 52%
Schweitzer: 45%

Delaware:
Warren: 51%
Schweitzer: 48%

New Jersey:
Warren: 49%
Schweitzer: 48%

West Virginia:
Schweitzer: 58%
Warren: 40%

Tennessee:
Schweitzer: 59%
Warren: 38%

Georgia:
Schweitzer: 61%
Warren: 36%

Arkansas:
Schweitzer: 60%
Warren: 38%

Missouri:
Schweitzer: 58%
Warren: 40%

Minnesota:
Schweitzer: 51%
Warren: 45%

Illinois:
Schweitzer: 50%
Warren: 48%

North Dakota:
Schweitzer: 66%
Warren: 34%

Montana:
Schweitzer: 80%
Warren: 18%

Idaho:
Schweitzer: 63%
Warren: 34%

Utah:
Schweitzer: 60%
Warren: 37%

Colorado:
Schweitzer: 59%
Warren: 39%

Arizona:
Schweitzer: 54%
Warren: 42%

New Mexico:
Schweitzer: 58%
Warren: 40%

Kansas:
Schweitzer: 57%
Warren: 41%

Oklahoma:
Schweitzer: 59%
Warren: 39%

Alaska:
Schweitzer: 58%
Warren: 40%

Hawaii:
Schweitzer: 58%
Warren: 40%

______________________________________________________________________________

Schweitzer wins Democrat Nod

"Tonight is the beginning of a whole new course for America. It starts with energy independence, a growing economy and no more Mitt Romney!"

Despite victories in some states Warren was unable to surpass Schweitzer who swept the board on Super Tuesday, taking many of the big states including California, Illinois and New York. Warren graciously conceded and announced her support of Schweitzer.

Schweitzer's first day as the presumptive nominee.

Matchup:

Romney v Schweitzer

49% - 40%

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Huh.

This timeline doesn't bode well for Schweitzer.

[NHI]

Romney hits the trail. "I am looking forward to the campaign."

"I think Mr. Romney is underestimating this underdog from Montana. I've got real solutions and a real track record."

Matchup:

Romney v Schweitzer

48% - 42%

The race headed into the summer months with Romney holding a substantial lead over Schweitzer. The Montana Governor poised himself as the underdog and planned to run a campaign and began focusing on key states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. As well as states like West Virginia, North Dakota and Arizona.

"If I can build a coalition in democratic and non traditional democratic states I'll win the presidency." Schweitzer while campaigning in Nebraska.

Pres. Romney in New Hampshire campaigning in July.

Key States:

Colorado:
Schweitzer: 46%
Romney: 45%

Arizona:
Romney: 47%
Schweitzer: 41%

Ohio:
Romney: 47%
Schweitzer: 42%

West Virginia:
Romney: 51%
Schweitzer: 39%

North Dakota:
Romney: 48%
Schweitzer: 41%

Michigan:
Schweitzer: 46%
Romney: 44%

Wisconsin:
Schweitzer: 44%
Romney: 43%

NE 2nd District:
Romney: 45%
Schweitzer: 44%

Florida:
Romney: 47%
Schweitzer: 40%

Montana:
Schweitzer: 55%
Romney: 39%

Romney Approval Rating:

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 39%
Undecided: 10%

[NHI]

In an effort to bring the party together Schweitzer tapped Elizabeth Warren to be his running mate. A pick which enthused the Democratic Party.

I stand here tonight as a fighter of the middle class. As a champion of justice, and with Brian Schweitzer as the next President of the United States, America will be place of thriving economic prosperity once again!"

"...Now I'm the unconventional choice. A blue guy from a red state. But I learned a thing or two in Montana and it is more than just we're right and they're wrong, but that America truly is a place like Montana. It is a great example of what America is from sea to shinning sea. So while the President has his army of troops, we have an army of facts and the biggest fact of all is: Pres. Romney is a proponent of crony capitalism!"

Schweitzer received an expected bounce from the convention and for the first time actually led Romney in some polls. However following the Republican convention Romney was back on top; laying out a clear contrast between himself and Schweitzer.

"...I love how last week the Democrats tried to paint themselves as the party of capitalism and free markets. Well in the words of the great Ronald Reagan all I see if pale pastels, not bold colors and we want bold colors today and always for America... They Democrats believe that by nominating someone outside of the conventional thinking that they'll be able to win back middle America. Well I've got news for them, they're little deception game isn't working, because behind all the talk of cattle, farming and free markets is nothing more than a big spending liberal. And my friends, we fell for that trap eight years and we certainly aren't going to fall for it again."

Matchup:

Romney v Schweitzer

50% -  43%

Unemployment Rate:

7.2%

[Niemeyerite]

We all know Romney will win this.

[Mechaman]

We all know Romney will win this.

[sentinel]

Yes we do. Might as well stop reading it.

Says the King of the obvious timelines

[NHI]

Yes we do. Might as well stop reading it.

Says the King of the obvious timelines

Haha their not all that obvious haha

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Yes we do. Might as well stop reading it.

Says the King of the obvious timelines

Haha their not all that obvious haha

To both of you.

[tmthforu94]

I appreciate NHI for his timelines, and I think they are pretty good reads. No one is forcing you all to read them - there's no reason to post so negatively.

Good work. Keep it up!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I appreciate NHI for his timelines, and I think they are pretty good reads. No one is forcing you all to read them - there's no reason to post so negatively.

Good work. Keep it up!

[NHI]

With the conventions in the rearview mirror, the candidates headed towards the final stretch of the general election. The debates were called by many pundits to be Schweitzer's moment if he had any hope of being able to defeat Romney.

The Romney campaign had done their best to paint Schweitzer not only as an undercover big government liberal, but a country bumpkin, for the lack of a better word that was not up to the task of running America.

"Certainly, he is a competent fellow, but I just don't see him as being up to the task of running this country. Now we have our obvious political differences, but George, look at where we were on January 20th, 2013, the day I took office and look where we are now on September 15th, 2016. Our unemployment rate is lower than when it was when I took office and it is still dropping. Our morale in restored. America is on her way back, and I believe as do the American people that this is the course we want to stay on for the next four years."

The Debates

At first, the debates seemed to have very little impact or worth. The candidates remained on talking points and both avoided any flubs or personal attacks on one another. However in the final weeks leading up to the campaign Romney's once commanding lead begin to shrink and many attributed it to Romney's Rose Garden like strategy.

He presented himself always as The President, not the Presidential candidated, whereas Schweitzer spent all his time crisscrossing the country and targeting many of the important states. For in a single week he visted different parts of Ohio eleven times.

Schweitzer campaigns, even in Utah.

Romney v. Schweitzer:

45% - 44%

The Map:

[NHI]

Election Night 2016:

7:00

Good evening and let us begin tonight with projections in some states. For President Romney we project hat he will carry the states of South Carolin and Kentucky.

For Governor Schweitzer we project the state of Vermont.

Romney: 17

Schweitzer: 3

7:30
We project that the President will carry Indiana and North Carolina. Gov. Schweitzer campaigned in North Carolina, but was not able to flip it back into the Democrat's column. We are looking at West Virginia where the results are too close to call at this time. Schweitzer spent a great deal of time in the state and if he wins it, he'll be the first candidate since Bill Clinton to carry it.

8:00
The eight o'clock hour and we can now project the following states:

Romney:

Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Oklahoma
New Hampshire
Georgia

Schweitzer:

Maryland
Delaware
Connecticutt
Massachusetts
Illinois
Maine

Romney: 96

Schweitzer: 60

8:30
We just projected Arkansas for the President, and we can now project that Gov. Schweitzer will carry the states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The Keystone state was one Pres. Romney hoped to carry, but it has gone for Schweitzer tonight, making it the first swing state of the night to flip.

9:00
We are abe to make some projection at this hour. For. Governor Scwheitzer we project: Rhode Island, New York and Minnesota.
For the President we project: Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas and Wyoming.

Romney: 164

Schweitzer: 138

9:45
At this time we can make a major projection for Gov. Schweitzer. He will carry the state of West Virginia. This makes him the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton.

[NHI]

We are making a retraction at this time. We are retracting Pennsylvania from Schweitzer's column, because the incoming results have shifted towards Pres. Romney. We can now project that Pres. Romney has carried  Virginia.

10:00
We now project that Governor Schweitzer has carried the states of Colorado and Montana. We also can project that he will carry New Mexico. For the president we project Utah.

Romney: 177

Schweitzer: 135

As we look at the states undecided at this time, Ohio is one that seems to be trending towards Governor Schweitzer. If he can flip that state it certainly will be good. Missouri is another state, Romney is up, but if Schweitzer can overtake him there that would be a great chunk of electoral change.

Well that thought of Schweitzer taking Missouri can be banished, for we are now projecting that the President will carry this state.

10:40
We are now able to project that Governor Schweitzer will carry the state of Ohio. This is certainly a big state for him to carry and perhaps no state was more contested than this one tonight. Ohio has gone for Schweitzer.



12:00

Romney: 245

Schweitzer: 244

So here stands the map at this hour. As I recall at this time four years ago Mitt Romney has been elected President.

I believe we projected it around ten thirty. Tonight it is too close too call. Do you see Schweitzer pulling this out?

Hard to tell. It's a coin toss at this time. The fact is Romney need to carry Michigan and Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and Michigan, or a variety of the three states in order to win. Schweitzer can do away with carrying just one of the contested states.

Let us look at the results:

Michigan:

Romney: 49.44%

Schweitzer: 49.29%

Pennsylvania:

Romney: 49.36%

Schweitzer: 49.34%

Wisconsin:

Romney: 49.40%

Schweitzer: 49.19%

[Peeperkorn]

You should better keep writing these timelines 'cause they are the only places where romney will win.

[Bacon King]

http://youtu.be/_oDqmrCPvyQ