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| | |-+  Angola releases first Population Census figures in 44 years
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Author Topic: Angola releases first Population Census figures in 44 years  (Read 852 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 20, 2014, 12:45:44 pm »
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And it's much higher than estimated:

1970 Census:   5,646,166 people
2014 Census: 24,383,301 people

That's an annual growth rate of 3.4% between 1970-2014 !!!

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/10/16/angola-has-a-population-of-24-3-million-people

http://www.citypopulation.de/Angola.html

It should also be noted that the 2014 Census had a very competent organisation and the public participated with almost 100% (there were a lot of ad campaigns before the census field period).

Still, Africa is a ticking population time bomb.
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 01:11:50 pm »
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And it's much higher than estimated:

1970 Census:   5,646,166 people
2014 Census: 24,383,301 people

That's an annual growth rate of 3.4% between 1970-2014 !!!

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/10/16/angola-has-a-population-of-24-3-million-people

http://www.citypopulation.de/Angola.html

It should also be noted that the 2014 Census had a very competent organisation and the public participated with almost 100% (there were a lot of ad campaigns before the census field period).

Still, Africa is a ticking population time bomb.

That is still less than half the population of Britain and they have 1,246,700 km2 to spread them on and a lot of oil wealth to care for them. Among African countries threatened by population growth Angola would be near the bottom on my list. It is mostly a redistribution problem - it will hard to solve and create social tensions, but it is definitely manageable.

(but of course they need to slow down the growth rate)
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2014, 05:01:30 pm »
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Where do you get 3.4%? That looks very realistic but when I divide the percentage growth between the 2 Censi by 44 (years), I get 7.542% per annum.

I've noticed this before when the rate of population growth is very high. Nigeria for instance was estimated to have 33 Million people in 1950 and 121 Million in 2000. When you divide the 267% growth by 50 (years), you also get a very unlikely 5.33% per year. It's very unusual to see annual growth of more than 4% even during the late 20th Century.
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2014, 06:55:11 pm »
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Where do you get 3.4%? That looks very realistic but when I divide the percentage growth between the 2 Censi by 44 (years), I get 7.542% per annum.

I've noticed this before when the rate of population growth is very high. Nigeria for instance was estimated to have 33 Million people in 1950 and 121 Million in 2000. When you divide the 267% growth by 50 (years), you also get a very unlikely 5.33% per year. It's very unusual to see annual growth of more than 4% even during the late 20th Century.
Simple mathematical error here.  Your method is not a valid way of determining annual population growth.
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2014, 08:33:16 pm »
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Cubby, the formula to find the average growth rate over n years is to take the nth root of the ratio of the final year's value and the first year's value, where n is the number of years.

In the case of Angola:
44√(24,383,301/5,646,166)=1.0338
which in percent terms is a 3.38% annual growth rate.
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2014, 03:36:50 am »
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Yeah.. Angola us 4.5 times the size of the UK with half the population.  Theyll be fine.  Africa is massive.  Even " tiny" Uganda is the same size as Japan with much more arable land and 1/4 the population. 

Africa is enormous.... Far larger than you think.  Population growth is no big deal.
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2014, 11:31:42 pm »
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Thanks Ernest, but that math equation is too complicated for me. Should have taken Algebra II when I had the chance.

Snowguy there may be room for a lot more people in Africa but what about the wildlife? A few years ago someone (I forget where) said maybe the U.S. and other countries should take animals like elephants, giraffes, etc. and keep them on game preserves in the Great Plains and similar wild places so they'd be safe from poaching and habitat loss. I'm sure Kansas is too cold for many African mammals but the idea is a good one.


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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2014, 08:14:53 am »
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Thanks Ernest, but that math equation is too complicated for me. Should have taken Algebra II when I had the chance.

Snowguy there may be room for a lot more people in Africa but what about the wildlife? A few years ago someone (I forget where) said maybe the U.S. and other countries should take animals like elephants, giraffes, etc. and keep them on game preserves in the Great Plains and similar wild places so they'd be safe from poaching and habitat loss. I'm sure Kansas is too cold for many African mammals but the idea is a good one.


Africa has a much lower level of urbanization than all other continents - only 44-45% of the population is urban at the moment, and the vast majority of the population growth will be in cities. Habitat loss is a real problem, but urbanization will reduce the pressure on land somewhat.
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2014, 08:20:26 am »
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Uganda will likely release their 2014 Census results tomorrow.

The last census in 2002 had a population of 24.5 million.

This year, the count should come in at ca. 34-38 million.

A growth rate of 3-4% annually ...

Relative population growth rates in some parts of Africa are actually not decreasing, but increasing - not to mention absolute growth numbers.
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2014, 04:58:04 am »
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Uganda will likely release their 2014 Census results tomorrow.

The last census in 2002 had a population of 24.5 million.

This year, the count should come in at ca. 34-38 million.

A growth rate of 3-4% annually ...

Relative population growth rates in some parts of Africa are actually not decreasing, but increasing - not to mention absolute growth numbers.
There is absolutely no reason to think Africa is the exception to the demographic transition.

Fertility rates are declining in Africa along with death rates.  Id be more concerned about the middle east as far as population growth is concerned.  Oil has afforded them a major youth bulge that will still be alive when the oil runs out there.
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2014, 05:13:53 am »
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Uganda will likely release their 2014 Census results tomorrow.

The last census in 2002 had a population of 24.5 million.

This year, the count should come in at ca. 34-38 million.

A growth rate of 3-4% annually ...

Relative population growth rates in some parts of Africa are actually not decreasing, but increasing - not to mention absolute growth numbers.
There is absolutely no reason to think Africa is the exception to the demographic transition.

Fertility rates are declining in Africa along with death rates.  Id be more concerned about the middle east as far as population growth is concerned.  Oil has afforded them a major youth bulge that will still be alive when the oil runs out there.

I'm not saying that Africa is the exception to the demographic transition, it's just happening way too slowly (the fertility rates are going down only very slowly), which means absolute population growth is still raging on at a much higher speed due to the greater and greater base population.

Also, there are some countries like Niger, Mali, Chad, Uganda etc. where fertility rates have barely changed at all in the past decades or even risen (Niger). Mostly because of patriarchal structures, polygamy and of course poverty and a lack of education + fanatic US evangelicals. It looks like not a lot can be done here. And they are already living in a region (Sahel) that is slowly turning into a desert. Niger for example is projected to have a population of 100 Mio. by 2050, up from 17 Mio. now, so that's going to be a massive (food) problem + migration streams (to where eventually ? Europe). But family planning is a no-go for most of the people there, especially the ignorant men.

The Middle-East is the same ticking time bomb.
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2014, 12:08:42 pm »
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Uganda will likely release their 2014 Census results tomorrow.

Preliminary numbers say 34.9 million (3.1% annual growth rate).
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2014, 12:17:49 pm »
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Yeah.. Angola us 4.5 times the size of the UK with half the population.  Theyll be fine.  Africa is massive.  Even " tiny" Uganda is the same size as Japan with much more arable land and 1/4 the population. 

Africa is enormous.... Far larger than you think.  Population growth is no big deal.

The same across the globe, having kids just because you can is not a good idea.

Oh, it won't cause a massive famine, it must be a good idea then. Also, it's debatable whether it will cause a massive famine or not.
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2014, 11:49:41 pm »
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Yeah.. Angola us 4.5 times the size of the UK with half the population.  Theyll be fine.  Africa is massive.  Even " tiny" Uganda is the same size as Japan with much more arable land and 1/4 the population. 

Africa is enormous.... Far larger than you think.  Population growth is no big deal.

The same across the globe, having kids just because you can is not a good idea.

Oh, it won't cause a massive famine, it must be a good idea then. Also, it's debatable whether it will cause a massive famine or not.
I just don't get what you're implying here.  Should we (the west) be employing population control in Africa? Is this achievable by condemning African fertility?  Or drumming up alarm over unlikely human catastrophes?

The rapid growth in population is, in fact, a direct result of a lack of such catastrophes.  Don't get cause and effect switched around.

As for wildlife... Yeah... Thats gonna suck.  But why should Africans be controlled or held back in the name of protecting wildlife when we fully accept the completely human landscape that is Europe?
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