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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 41503 times)
Sibboleth
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« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2011, 09:21:14 am »
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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.
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« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2011, 12:13:47 pm »
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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

That's why I referred to this: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EvenEvilHasStandards
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #27 on: November 28, 2011, 01:32:23 pm »
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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

Right... I'm pretty sure every single one of them would be incredibly non-violent under similar circumstances.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2011, 01:42:30 pm »
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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

Right... I'm pretty sure every single one of them would be incredibly non-violent under similar circumstances.

I think it's fairly clear that they would not be 'incredibly non-violent' under such circumstances, and I think that it is also fairly clear that it would take a fairly mischievous reading of my post to come to the assumption that I think otherwise.

But Syria is effectively a fascist state. Most of the other members of the Arab League... they aren't nice either. But they aren't that.
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2011, 01:50:15 pm »
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As for why the lack of attention in comparison to Libya, I suspect that would change if the Free Syrian Army took control of the second largest city in Syria and started a true civil war as opposed to just a guerrilla campaign now.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2011, 03:03:23 pm »
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It's good to see they are taking the initiative. Sadly, they probably never will go as far as military intervention, even though it's probably the only way to get rid of the tyrant.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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Kalwejt
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« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2011, 03:13:51 pm »
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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

Right... I'm pretty sure every single one of them would be incredibly non-violent under similar circumstances.

I think it's fairly clear that they would not be 'incredibly non-violent' under such circumstances, and I think that it is also fairly clear that it would take a fairly mischievous reading of my post to come to the assumption that I think otherwise.

But Syria is effectively a fascist state. Most of the other members of the Arab League... they aren't nice either. But they aren't that.

Am I the only one who remember how Bashar Al-Assad was considered "not that bad"?

The problem is that it's very hard to predict what each Arab dictator would do when confronted with such situation. Could go Ben Ali, could go Mubarak, could go Gaddafi. There are some of them who'd rather go Gaddafi, but aren't in trouble (yet?)

It's good to see they are taking the initiative. Sadly, they probably never will go as far as military intervention, even though it's probably the only way to get rid of the tyrant.

I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

Of course, if this would have to happen, it's better that Arabs do it, instead of someone else. 
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Antonio V
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« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2011, 03:17:49 pm »
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I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

I see, but is there any other way to stop bloodshed ? It's clear Assad won't give up under any conditions, and he has all the means to stay in power and crush the rebellion. I don't know how protesters could even hope to survive against tanks and artillery.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Kalwejt
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« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2011, 03:25:17 pm »
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I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

I see, but is there any other way to stop bloodshed ? It's clear Assad won't give up under any conditions, and he has all the means to stay in power and crush the rebellion. I don't know how protesters could even hope to survive against tanks and artillery.

The bad thing is, of course, that Assad knows very well the opposition doesn't want military intervention so he can sleep at night.

And the problem is that Syria is not Libya: Libyan rebels wanted and loudly demanded military intervention. I'm afraid, as of Syria, military intervention when population really doesn't want this (and managing things after outsing Assad in the process) may be just as bad scenario as doing nothing.

Yes, it really sucks.
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Хahar
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« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2011, 03:28:24 pm »
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And, as I recall, you were very much against military intervention in Libya because you felt that it was nothing more than a tribal dispute.
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« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2011, 03:31:34 pm »
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And, as I recall, you were very much against military intervention in Libya because you felt that it was nothing more than a tribal dispute.

Actually, I supported an idea of UN-approved intervention that would enforce cease fire. What I didn't support was taking one of sides in the civil war. Libya wasn't just a tribal war, but tribal divisions played a key role here.

Syria isn't that tribal as Libya. Those are more religious divisions we're dealing with (Alawite regime against Muslim majority with Christians supporting the regime because of their own minority status).
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« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2011, 03:51:36 pm »
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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

If the actions taken thus far by the Arab League are of any indication, it seems they have decided that the benefits of the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria outweigh the risks -significant though they are (and not to be taken lightly).  They are already planning for a post-Assad Syria through their interactions with the Syrian National Council.    
The SNC is not the body to talk with.  The Free Syrian Army are doing the fighting, and if Assad is ousted, they will be calling the shots (at least initially). 

On the subject of foreign intervention, I question that the Syrian opposition will be any more supportive of Turkish intervention than they would be of full-blown NATO intervention.  In fact, this could very well stoke old fears of the Turks trying to establish a new Ottoman Empire, however irrational that may seem.
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« Reply #37 on: November 28, 2011, 04:06:58 pm »
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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

If the actions taken thus far by the Arab League are of any indication, it seems they have decided that the benefits of the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria outweigh the risks -significant though they are (and not to be taken lightly).  They are already planning for a post-Assad Syria through their interactions with the Syrian National Council.    
The SNC is not the body to talk with.  The Free Syrian Army are doing the fighting, and if Assad is ousted, they will be calling the shots (at least initially). 

On the subject of foreign intervention, I question that the Syrian opposition will be any more supportive of Turkish intervention than they would be of full-blown NATO intervention.  In fact, this could very well stoke old fears of the Turks trying to establish a new Ottoman Empire, however irrational that may seem.

Well, Turkey became very active in the Arab world recently and Aknara's ambitions to play bigger role in the region are no secret. Turkey's influence and, in some cases, prestige is growing and they would be idiots to waste it by entering Syria, because, as Yelnoc rightly pointed out, it will awake all demons of the past.

But, as much as I dislike Erdogan, he's not an idiot.
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Frodo
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« Reply #38 on: December 02, 2011, 10:30:35 pm »
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Syria Risks ‘Full-Fledged Civil War’ Unless Assad Ends Crackdown, UN Says

By Jennifer M. Freedman and Massoud A. Derhally - Dec 2, 2011 8:22 AM ET

Syria risks being engulfed in a civil war unless President Bashar al-Assad’s government ends its crackdown on opposition protesters, said the top human-rights official of the United Nations.

“The Syrian authorities’ continual ruthless oppression, if not stopped now, can drive the country into a full-fledged civil war,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said at a special session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.

More than 4,000 people have been killed since unrest began in mid-March, tens of thousands have been arrested and more than 14,000 are reported to be in detention, Pillay said today. She called for Syria to be referred to the International Criminal Court and said the international community needs to take “urgent and effective” measures to protect the Syrian people.

The crackdown has continued even as other nations increase economic and political pressure on the Syrian government, which says it is fighting foreign conspirators, armed gangs and Islamists. Demonstrations against al-Assad’s leadership were inspired by the so-called Arab Spring movements that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
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« Reply #39 on: December 02, 2011, 11:54:53 pm »
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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

If the actions taken thus far by the Arab League are of any indication, it seems they have decided that the benefits of the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria outweigh the risks -significant though they are (and not to be taken lightly).  They are already planning for a post-Assad Syria through their interactions with the Syrian National Council.    
The SNC is not the body to talk with.  The Free Syrian Army are doing the fighting, and if Assad is ousted, they will be calling the shots (at least initially). 

On the subject of foreign intervention, I question that the Syrian opposition will be any more supportive of Turkish intervention than they would be of full-blown NATO intervention.  In fact, this could very well stoke old fears of the Turks trying to establish a new Ottoman Empire, however irrational that may seem.

Well, Turkey became very active in the Arab world recently and Aknara's ambitions to play bigger role in the region are no secret. Turkey's influence and, in some cases, prestige is growing and they would be idiots to waste it by entering Syria, because, as Yelnoc rightly pointed out, it will awake all demons of the past.

But, as much as I dislike Erdogan, he's not an idiot.
There is another angle that I just thought of.  Kurdish Syrians are playing a big part in the armed resistance to Assad's regime.  Might this display of force give the Turkish Kurds (and/or the Iraqi Kurds) ideas?  I do not think Erdogan (or a successor of his) would ever order a crackdown on an ethnic minority in this day and age, but the world is a crazy place.
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« Reply #40 on: January 22, 2012, 10:19:32 pm »
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Arab League calls on Syria’s Assad to step down

By Liz Sly, Sunday, January 22, 9:21 PM

DAMASCUS — The Arab League on Sunday called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to hand over power to his vice president under the terms of a transition plan similar to that which paved the way for the departure, hours earlier, of Yemen’s president for the United States.

The announcement of the plan at a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo signaled growing Arab frustration with Assad’s failure to implement the terms of a peace plan to which he agreed in November, and it offered the clearest indication yet that Arab states want him to step down.

The plan laid down a timetable under which negotiations with the opposition would begin in two weeks and a national unity government would be formed within two months. Assad would then leave office ahead of elections to be held within three months. It was not immediately clear which of two Syrian vice presidents, Farouk al-Shara or Najah al-Attar, would be expected to take over.

The Syrian National Council, the main Syrian opposition coalition, welcomed the initiative as a step toward Assad’s departure, the group’s leader, Burhan Ghalioun, told reporters in Cairo. Activists in Syria have repeatedly said, however, that they will not negotiate with Assad.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #41 on: January 23, 2012, 05:03:28 am »
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It's not time to call him to step down anymore. If they want to do something, they have to intervent now.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #42 on: January 23, 2012, 10:39:27 am »
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When I was more or less off-news during about one month, at one point about 2 weeks ago maybe I heard a bit about some talks of military intervention from Arab League, to which the Tunisian president would have negatively reacted.

In case of any kind of intervention from anybody, it would have to have clear signs it would be mostly welcomed and that the risks of making the situation worse would clearly be not high.

It's becoming a freaking mess over there, and the regime does everything to turns it into a civil war between Sunnis and Alawits. How insane this regime turned...

According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, today about 150.000 people gathered in Duma, 20 km from Damas, for the funeral of 12 civilians. A city that soldiers of the Free Syrian Army had taken on Saturday but then they withdrew. Some militants say that the authorities forces stayed on the gates of the cities though. It would be the biggest demonstration in Syria since the beginning of the revolt.
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
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« Reply #43 on: January 29, 2012, 10:46:04 pm »
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So how long does everyone expect the regime to hold out before calling it quits?

Syrian uprising reaches the edge of Damascus

By Liz Sly, Sunday, January 29, 9:38 PM

DAMASCUS — The upheaval that has roiled much of Syria for the past 10 months is seeping its way into the heart of the country’s capital, puncturing the sense of invulnerability that had until recently sustained confidence in the government’s ability to survive the revolt.

On Sunday, security forces launched a major assault to reclaim suburbs just a short drive from the city center that had fallen under the sway of rebel soldiers fighting under the banner of the Free Syrian Army.

-snip-

With the crisis closing in on the capital, a siege mentality is starting to take hold. Roads leading out of Damascus no longer are deemed safe because of the threat of ambush, and stories of bandits stalking the hills surrounding the city further add to the anxiety.
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« Reply #44 on: January 29, 2012, 10:51:55 pm »
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No idea, though I expect they'll still be in place by summer. Hopefully by year's end they're gone or nearly gone.
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« Reply #45 on: January 30, 2012, 07:58:48 am »
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I had read on another message board that Assad was moving every spare tank, chopper, rifle and round to the west coast in the hopes of maintaining an Alawite state after Syria as a unit collapses.
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« Reply #46 on: February 01, 2012, 10:15:06 am »
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I don't think Assad is dumb enough to think a revived État des Alaouites would be anything more than a short term solution.  Of course, he hay have come to the conclusion that he has no long term solution.
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« Reply #47 on: February 05, 2012, 03:11:48 pm »
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This is beginning to really remind me of the Chinese Civil War. On the one side, a morally bankrupt dictator with overwhelming conventional military power concentrated in the big cities. On the other side, a mostly rural group of rebels with greater popular support and rapidly growing numbers and weaponry despite still being massively outgunned.
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« Reply #48 on: February 05, 2012, 04:02:05 pm »
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If Syrian rebels eventually succeed, they deserve massive kudos for doing despite utter foreign inaction.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #49 on: February 05, 2012, 04:43:17 pm »
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They'd much rather do it on their own.
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