Civil War in Syria

[SPC]

So how much longer does everyone think the Assad regime can stay in power?

The United States is moving towards officially recognizing the Syrian opposition as the legitimate government in the country.  

As long as he did the last time you asked the question. Absent direct foreign intervention I suspect he'll survive 2013.

[Frodo]

Syrian army weakening as rebels make gains

By Joby Warrick and Babak Dehghanpisheh,
Updated: Tuesday, December 4, 8:19 PM

After nearly two years of fighting, Syria’s vaunted war machine is showing serious cracks as emboldened rebels snap up more bases and airfields and force army units to retrench behind defensive lines in major cities, Western officials and military analysts say.

Bolstered by a steady flow of arms from foreign backers, opposition forces have scored a series of tactical victories in the Damascus suburbs in recent days and are advancing steadily toward the city’s airport, adding to what some analysts view as a sense of momentum that has been building since late summer.

Powerful antitank and antiaircraft weapons have helped level what was once a lopsided contest, the officials say, so much so that army commanders have been unable or unwilling to challenge rebel assaults on large military bases on the capital’s outskirts.

“The regime isn’t intervening to defend its positions,” said Jeffrey White, a former Middle East military analyst with the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. “And when it does try to counterattack, it often fails.”

[they don't love you like i love you]

The rebel should start publicly gunning down army officers outside of battle again and see how quickly they start deserting. Also what's the Syrian equivalent of West Point? That'd make a nice bombing target...

[2952-0-0]

The rebel should start publicly gunning down army officers outside of battle again and see how quickly they start deserting. Also what's the Syrian equivalent of West Point? That'd make a nice bombing target...

The top military leadership are Alawite and they know they won't fare well under any circumstances. Might as well go down fighting. It really isn't possible to separate the "good guys" from the "bad guys".

[they don't love you like i love you]

One could defect and then renounce their past "Alawite heresy" and claim to have converted to standard Sunni Islam now.

[SPC]

I feel like the red avatars around here could benefit from reading this

[they don't love you like i love you]

I feel like the red avatars around here could benefit from reading this

There's hordes of logical fallacies in that article, but I'll give the author credit for putting forward a point that consists of more than:

1-OMG THIS IS JUST LIKE IRAQ/VIETNAM!
2-NO TO IMPERIALISM!
3-Any intervention would provide benefit to US/European businesses, therefore it's not truly humanitarian, therefore Gaddafi/Assad is the better guy.
4-Right wing talking points about the opposition all being al Qaeda terrorists.

Because that type of junk is literally all I've seen on DU whenever anyone criticizes an Obama military intervention like in Libya or the sending military advisors to Uganda. (It's a minority of course, but too vocal of one.) In hindsight it makes me realize that lots of anti-Iraq War types relied on really stupid bumper sticker slogans instead of real arguments, but since I was on the same side as them and saw the pro-war side as far worse I didn't even notice it/care.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

4-Right wing talking points about the opposition all being al Qaeda terrorists.

I wonder if any of the left-wingers putting forth that junk realize what the hell they're doing when they say it.

[Mr. Morden]

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/05/15706380-syria-loads-chemical-weapons-into-bombs-military-awaits-assads-order?lite&google_editors_picks=true

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[Tender Branson]

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/05/15706380-syria-loads-chemical-weapons-into-bombs-military-awaits-assads-order?lite&google_editors_picks=true

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm, this is not good ...

If this is not just a tactic to scare the rebels and they are actually using it, the US and others should probably intervene there based on a UN mandate and wipe out the Assad regime.

And this is coming from a left-winger like me, but the consequences of using these weapons would probably justify a mission to get rid of the regime in a hopefully quick way.

But the situation there and what might happen with the chemical bombs if the allied forces are invading are just ... nuts.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What invading forces? Just wipe out the Syrian Air Force (The entire Libyan Air Force was basically annihilated in two days) and then hit all the chemical weapons delivery systems with a bunch of cruise missiles.

[Person Man]

What invading forces? Just wipe out the Syrian Air Force (The entire Libyan Air Force was basically annihilated in two days) and then hit all the chemical weapons delivery systems with a bunch of cruise missiles.

This. Basically, Assad using his WMDs would pretty much justify what we did to Ghadaffi. Basically our goal won't be regime change, but simply to prevent genocide.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The main problem is, any attack on Assad's WMD's is likely to release them, not simply destroy them.  It's why it is essentially impossible for a pre-emptive strike to be done, since we would in effect be releasing chemical agents that would undoubtedly affect nearby civilian areas.  Indeed, if Assad is smart, he likely has chosen to mix those chemicals near civilian areas.

[Person Man]

What if he starts to release? Would we then be absolved of that responsibility of causing them to be released and perhaps some of the collateral damages of our actions?

[SPC]

What if he starts to release? Would we then be absolved of that responsibility of causing them to be released and perhaps some of the collateral damages of our actions?

That's why he's not going to release. The chemical weapons are a dead man's switch.

[2952-0-0]

Bashar has said he was born in Syria, lived all his life in Syria, and will die in Syria. Take that how you want.

[Person Man]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

[2952-0-0]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

Uh, what? Alawites are only 10% of Syria's 22 million population. Even a Hitler-like madman can't change that fact in two months.

The most rational thing for him to do is to gather all his most loyal army officers and send them to the Alawite coastal strip, order them to cleanse out non-Alawites and other undesirables from the mountainous strip, and then fly a helicopter to pick him up from Damascus at midnight. Then, plead for international peacekeepers to defend the Alawites from what will definitely be desires for revenge. Bonus, continue allowing Russia access to the Port of Tartus in exchange for Russia continuing to support the remnants of Assad-controlled Syria. The last part would be like the US supporting the last remnant of KMT-controlled China.

[Person Man]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

Uh, what? Alawites are only 10% of Syria's 22 million population. Even a Hitler-like madman can't change that fact in two months.

The most rational thing for him to do is to gather all his most loyal army officers and send them to the Alawite coastal strip, order them to cleanse out non-Alawites and other undesirables from the mountainous strip, and then fly a helicopter to pick him up from Damascus at midnight. Then, plead for international peacekeepers to defend the Alawites from what will definitely be desires for revenge. Bonus, continue allowing Russia access to the Port of Tartus in exchange for Russia continuing to support the remnants of Assad-controlled Syria. The last part would be like the US supporting the last remnant of KMT-controlled China.

That actually makes sense instead of killing 300,000 people and perhaps chasing out anouther 1,000,000 in 2 months of sustained gassing in order to become a somewhat larger of a minority. That would probably create a Rwandan-style  repraisal.  This way, Assad would still have to commit a somewhat smaller of a genocide but he could be the Taiwan of post Cold-War dictators of a small country of about 2 million people. But this gets us back to the main point. Having a genocide at the next door of the western world at this magnitude is simply unacceptable and worse creates a very slippery slope towards making genocide a tolerated fact of life.  This is why we need to start an air campaign over Syria if any are released and if people are still dying after a week, we really should put troops on the ground if we can at least NATO on board....though maybe Assad already knows this and he is just bluffing and the course of the war will continue on its current trajectory of Assad losing sometime next year or Syria becoming the next Sudan for years to come.

[Benj]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

Uh, what? Alawites are only 10% of Syria's 22 million population. Even a Hitler-like madman can't change that fact in two months.

The most rational thing for him to do is to gather all his most loyal army officers and send them to the Alawite coastal strip, order them to cleanse out non-Alawites and other undesirables from the mountainous strip, and then fly a helicopter to pick him up from Damascus at midnight. Then, plead for international peacekeepers to defend the Alawites from what will definitely be desires for revenge. Bonus, continue allowing Russia access to the Port of Tartus in exchange for Russia continuing to support the remnants of Assad-controlled Syria. The last part would be like the US supporting the last remnant of KMT-controlled China.

See:



Curious what the Alawites of Iskenderun think about Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Curious what the Alawites of Iskenderun think about Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war.

Probably they are thankful they were hijacked by Turkey back in 1939 and thus out of most of this mess.

[2952-0-0]

This is why we need to start an air campaign over Syria if any are released and if people are still dying after a week, we really should put troops on the ground if we can at least NATO on board....though maybe Assad already knows this and he is just bluffing and the course of the war will continue on its current trajectory of Assad losing sometime next year or Syria becoming the next Sudan for years to come.

But wouldn't bombing canisters containing poison gas, you know, release them? And if Assad's smart he's located the weapons depots near crowded urban areas to prevent just that from happening.

[they don't love you like i love you]

How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

[Silent Hunter]

How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

I'm pretty sure that sort of thing doesn't exist.

[SPC]

How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.