Civil War in Syria

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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

Right... I'm pretty sure every single one of them would be incredibly non-violent under similar circumstances.

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A bunch of dictators is condemning a fellow dictator.

Well, yes. But he is... somewhat worse than they are.

Right... I'm pretty sure every single one of them would be incredibly non-violent under similar circumstances.

I think it's fairly clear that they would not be 'incredibly non-violent' under such circumstances, and I think that it is also fairly clear that it would take a fairly mischievous reading of my post to come to the assumption that I think otherwise.

But Syria is effectively a fascist state. Most of the other members of the Arab League... they aren't nice either. But they aren't that.

Am I the only one who remember how Bashar Al-Assad was considered "not that bad"?

The problem is that it's very hard to predict what each Arab dictator would do when confronted with such situation. Could go Ben Ali, could go Mubarak, could go Gaddafi. There are some of them who'd rather go Gaddafi, but aren't in trouble (yet?)

It's good to see they are taking the initiative. Sadly, they probably never will go as far as military intervention, even though it's probably the only way to get rid of the tyrant.

I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

Of course, if this would have to happen, it's better that Arabs do it, instead of someone else. 

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I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

I see, but is there any other way to stop bloodshed ? It's clear Assad won't give up under any conditions, and he has all the means to stay in power and crush the rebellion. I don't know how protesters could even hope to survive against tanks and artillery.

The bad thing is, of course, that Assad knows very well the opposition doesn't want military intervention so he can sleep at night.

And the problem is that Syria is not Libya: Libyan rebels wanted and loudly demanded military intervention. I'm afraid, as of Syria, military intervention when population really doesn't want this (and managing things after outsing Assad in the process) may be just as bad scenario as doing nothing.

Yes, it really sucks.

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And, as I recall, you were very much against military intervention in Libya because you felt that it was nothing more than a tribal dispute.

Actually, I supported an idea of UN-approved intervention that would enforce cease fire. What I didn't support was taking one of sides in the civil war. Libya wasn't just a tribal war, but tribal divisions played a key role here.

Syria isn't that tribal as Libya. Those are more religious divisions we're dealing with (Alawite regime against Muslim majority with Christians supporting the regime because of their own minority status).

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There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

If the actions taken thus far by the Arab League are of any indication, it seems they have decided that the benefits of the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria outweigh the risks -significant though they are (and not to be taken lightly).  They are already planning for a post-Assad Syria through their interactions with the Syrian National Council.    

The SNC is not the body to talk with.  The Free Syrian Army are doing the fighting, and if Assad is ousted, they will be calling the shots (at least initially). 

On the subject of foreign intervention, I question that the Syrian opposition will be any more supportive of Turkish intervention than they would be of full-blown NATO intervention.  In fact, this could very well stoke old fears of the Turks trying to establish a new Ottoman Empire, however irrational that may seem.

Well, Turkey became very active in the Arab world recently and Aknara's ambitions to play bigger role in the region are no secret. Turkey's influence and, in some cases, prestige is growing and they would be idiots to waste it by entering Syria, because, as Yelnoc rightly pointed out, it will awake all demons of the past.

But, as much as I dislike Erdogan, he's not an idiot.

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According to Al-Arabiyah, there was an assasination attempt on Assad today, when he was visiting already seized Homs.

This is just a rumour with no official confirmation.

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I really don't see how the "end of the Bashar Al Assad Regime" is "in sight" right now.

It appears that Assad regime will slaughter few more thousands and regain control. There will be a loud outrage abroad, some time of isolation, and then, in few years, we'll see total normalization in foreign relations.

So typical story, isn't it?

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Assad and his regime must go.

Cool. Do you have a strategy for what would be next?

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Another ISIS leader bites the dust

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37224570

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The mainstream media won't mention this, of course, but CSJC just destroyed another ISIS isolated stronghold.

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Please don't post graphic imagery.

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Assad has won. It's about over.  

Huzzah!

I mean, look at the map.  Most is controlled by Assad.  And the entire situation is depressing, there's not any real reason to celebrate.

Why not? The terrorists have been defeated, and any further intervention by any foreign power (Russia, America, Turkey etc.) is not warranted, as it is up to Syrians to chose who leads their own country, not anyone else.

Except Russians won't leave Syria, neither will the U.S., Saudis and Turks cease their involvement. The game between the powers will continue in some other form, at the expense of the Syrians, pawns in their proxy wars.

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At this point the world should do what the UAE did: reestablish normal relations with the Assad regime. Attempts to depose him failed and playing the isolation game only deepens the regime's need for Russian alliance.